← Models / SOG Model — Pick History

Pick History

What's listed

Every best bet and lean the shots on goal model made, with the Hard Rock line and price it was made at and how it graded. Live picks are the model's last prediction before puck drop. Backtest picks are a walk-forward simulation of past seasons priced at Hard Rock's closing line, using only information available before each game.

Columns

  • Model / Book — the model's and Hard Rock's (de-vigged) probability for the picked side.
  • EV — expected profit per unit at the price.
  • Units — result of a 1-unit bet (a win at +120 pays +1.20u, a loss is −1u, a push or void 0).
  • CLV — how far Hard Rock's de-vigged probability moved toward (+) or away from (−) the pick between the pick and the close, on the same line. Consistently positive CLV is the best early sign a model is beating the market. Backtest picks are priced at the close, so they have no CLV.

Settlement

Overtime counts, shootouts don't, and a player who doesn't play is a void.

Informational only. Not betting advice.

Record
1558-1512
0 void · 0 pending
Units
+13.40u
ROI
+0.4%
expected +4.6%
Avg CLV
—
no closes yet
DatePlayerGamePickPriceModelBook EVActualResultUnitsCLV
2024-12-01 BOS vs MTL UNDER 2.5 lean +105 50.4% 45.5% +3.3% 1 W +1.05 —
2024-12-01 VAN @ DET UNDER 2.5 lean -135 60.0% 54.1% +4.4% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-12-01 DET vs VAN UNDER 2.5 lean +125 46.1% 41.4% +3.8% 5 L -1.00 —
2024-12-01 DET vs VAN UNDER 2.5 lean -180 65.9% 60.2% +2.5% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-11-30 UTA @ VGK UNDER 1.5 lean +140 42.8% 39.1% +2.6% 2 L -1.00 —
2024-11-30 BUF @ NYI UNDER 3.5 lean -120 56.2% 51.0% +3.1% 4 L -1.00 —
2024-11-29 ANA vs LAK UNDER 2.5 lean -155 62.7% 56.7% +3.1% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-11-29 VAN @ BUF UNDER 2.5 lean +115 48.2% 43.7% +3.5% 2 W +1.15 —
2024-11-29 NYR @ PHI UNDER 3.5 lean -135 58.9% 54.1% +2.5% 1 W +0.74 —
2024-11-27 SEA vs ANA UNDER 2.5 lean -115 54.6% 50.0% +2.0% 0 W +0.87 —
2024-11-27 NSH vs PHI UNDER 3.5 lean +120 46.7% 42.5% +2.7% 2 W +1.20 —
2024-11-27 FLA vs TOR UNDER 1.5 lean +130 44.4% 40.9% +2.0% 4 L -1.00 —
2024-11-26 VAN @ BOS UNDER 2.5 lean +105 50.6% 45.5% +3.7% 2 W +1.05 —
2024-11-25 SEA @ ANA UNDER 2.5 lean -120 55.6% 51.0% +2.0% 2 W +0.83 —
2024-11-21 CAR @ NJD UNDER 2.5 lean +105 49.9% 45.5% +2.3% 2 W +1.05 —
2024-11-20 CAR @ PHI UNDER 2.5 best +135 44.9% 39.8% +5.5% 1 W +1.35 —
2024-11-20 CAR @ PHI UNDER 1.5 best +130 46.0% 40.6% +5.8% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-11-20 CAR @ PHI UNDER 1.5 lean +125 46.2% 41.7% +4.0% 2 L -1.00 —
2024-11-20 CAR @ PHI UNDER 2.5 lean +110 49.0% 44.3% +3.0% 4 L -1.00 —
2024-11-20 CAR @ PHI UNDER 1.5 lean +145 42.1% 38.4% +3.1% 2 L -1.00 —
2024-11-20 VGK @ TOR UNDER 2.5 lean +105 50.0% 45.5% +2.5% 2 W +1.05 —
2024-11-19 ANA @ CHI UNDER 2.5 lean -120 57.0% 51.0% +4.5% 1 W +0.83 —
2024-11-19 MIN @ STL UNDER 2.5 lean +120 46.8% 42.8% +3.0% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-11-18 ANA @ DAL UNDER 2.5 lean -175 65.7% 59.4% +3.2% 4 L -1.00 —
2024-11-18 COL @ PHI UNDER 2.5 lean +130 45.5% 40.9% +4.7% 5 L -1.00 —
2024-11-17 CAR vs STL UNDER 1.5 lean +140 43.1% 38.9% +3.5% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-11-16 CAR vs OTT UNDER 1.5 lean +125 45.7% 41.7% +2.9% 2 L -1.00 —
2024-11-16 CAR vs OTT UNDER 2.5 lean +120 46.6% 42.5% +2.4% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-11-16 BUF @ PHI UNDER 2.5 lean +110 48.7% 44.6% +2.2% 4 L -1.00 —
2024-11-15 VGK @ UTA UNDER 2.5 lean +105 50.3% 45.9% +3.1% 1 W +1.05 —
2024-11-14 SEA vs CHI UNDER 2.5 lean +135 43.7% 39.8% +2.8% 1 W +1.35 —
2024-11-14 BOS @ DAL UNDER 2.5 lean -120 55.7% 51.0% +2.2% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-11-13 CAR @ UTA UNDER 1.5 lean +135 43.7% 39.8% +2.6% 4 L -1.00 —
2024-11-13 CAR @ UTA UNDER 2.5 lean +125 45.5% 41.4% +2.4% 4 L -1.00 —
2024-11-13 CAR @ UTA UNDER 2.5 lean +125 46.6% 41.7% +4.7% 2 W +1.25 —
2024-11-12 CGY @ VAN UNDER 2.5 lean -110 53.7% 49.0% +2.5% 5 L -1.00 —
2024-11-11 CAR @ VGK UNDER 2.5 lean +130 44.9% 40.6% +3.2% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-11-11 CAR @ VGK UNDER 2.5 lean +120 46.5% 42.5% +2.3% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-11-11 CAR @ VGK UNDER 2.5 lean +125 46.1% 41.4% +3.6% 0 W +1.25 —
2024-11-11 COL vs NSH UNDER 3.5 lean -155 62.0% 57.2% +2.0% 2 W +0.65 —
2024-11-11 NSH @ COL UNDER 3.5 lean +115 47.5% 43.7% +2.1% 3 W +1.15 —
2024-11-10 ANA vs CBJ UNDER 2.5 lean +105 50.4% 45.5% +3.4% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-11-09 CAR @ COL UNDER 2.5 lean +115 47.5% 43.7% +2.2% 2 W +1.15 —
2024-11-09 COL vs CAR UNDER 3.5 lean -180 65.7% 60.2% +2.3% 4 L -1.00 —
2024-11-09 CAR @ COL UNDER 2.5 lean +130 45.4% 40.6% +4.4% 0 W +1.30 —
2024-11-09 UTA @ NSH UNDER 2.5 lean +105 50.0% 45.9% +2.5% 0 W +1.05 —
2024-11-09 WSH @ STL UNDER 3.5 lean -105 53.3% 47.5% +4.0% 5 L -1.00 —
2024-11-08 SEA vs VGK UNDER 2.5 lean +115 47.9% 43.7% +3.0% 2 W +1.15 —
2024-11-07 VAN @ LAK UNDER 2.5 lean -105 52.3% 48.0% +2.1% 2 W +0.95 —
2024-11-07 COL @ WPG UNDER 3.5 lean -170 64.2% 59.2% +2.0% 2 W +0.59 —
2024-11-06 NSH @ WSH UNDER 3.5 lean +130 44.5% 40.9% +2.4% 3 W +1.30 —
2024-11-05 SEA @ COL UNDER 2.5 lean +105 50.4% 45.5% +3.2% 2 W +1.05 —
2024-11-05 TBL @ STL UNDER 3.5 lean +115 47.9% 43.4% +2.9% 3 W +1.15 —
2024-11-05 CAR vs PHI UNDER 3.5 lean -150 62.6% 56.3% +4.3% 2 W +0.67 —
2024-11-05 CAR vs PHI UNDER 2.5 lean +135 44.6% 39.8% +4.7% 5 L -1.00 —
2024-11-05 CAR vs PHI UNDER 3.5 lean -165 64.3% 58.4% +3.3% 1 W +0.61 —
2024-11-05 CAR vs PHI UNDER 1.5 lean +135 44.1% 39.8% +3.7% 0 W +1.35 —
2024-11-05 CAR vs PHI UNDER 1.5 lean +120 47.7% 42.8% +4.9% 1 W +1.20 —
2024-11-05 BOS @ TOR UNDER 3.5 lean +120 46.4% 42.5% +2.1% 4 L -1.00 —
2024-11-03 CAR vs WSH UNDER 3.5 lean -150 62.0% 56.3% +3.3% 5 L -1.00 —
2024-11-03 CAR vs WSH UNDER 2.5 lean +135 44.3% 39.8% +4.0% 7 L -1.00 —
2024-11-03 CAR vs WSH UNDER 1.5 lean +145 41.9% 38.2% +2.8% 1 W +1.45 —
2024-11-03 NYI @ NYR UNDER 2.5 lean +105 50.4% 45.9% +3.3% 5 L -1.00 —
2024-11-03 NYI @ NYR UNDER 2.5 lean +125 46.2% 41.7% +4.0% 2 W +1.25 —
2024-11-02 VAN @ SJS UNDER 2.5 lean +135 43.8% 39.8% +3.0% 6 L -1.00 —
2024-11-02 TOR @ STL UNDER 4.5 lean +100 51.6% 46.5% +3.1% 2 W +1.00 —
2024-10-31 NSH vs EDM UNDER 3.5 lean +115 47.5% 43.7% +2.2% 4 L -1.00 —
2024-10-31 CAR vs BOS UNDER 2.5 lean +130 44.6% 40.9% +2.6% 2 W +1.30 —
2024-10-31 PIT vs ANA UNDER 1.5 lean +125 45.7% 41.7% +2.7% 1 W +1.25 —
2024-10-31 TOR vs SEA UNDER 4.5 lean -110 53.5% 48.5% +2.1% 4 W +0.91 —
2024-10-31 SEA @ TOR UNDER 2.5 lean +105 50.4% 45.5% +3.3% 5 L -1.00 —
2024-10-29 NYI vs ANA UNDER 2.5 lean +120 46.6% 42.5% +2.6% 4 L -1.00 —
2024-10-29 NYR @ WSH UNDER 3.5 lean -110 53.9% 49.0% +3.0% 2 W +0.91 —
2024-10-29 SEA @ MTL UNDER 2.5 lean +135 44.0% 39.8% +3.4% 1 W +1.35 —
2024-10-28 COL vs CHI UNDER 2.5 best +130 45.9% 40.6% +5.6% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-10-28 CAR @ VAN UNDER 2.5 lean -130 57.9% 53.1% +2.4% 5 L -1.00 —
2024-10-28 CAR @ VAN UNDER 3.5 lean -155 63.2% 56.7% +4.0% 2 W +0.65 —
2024-10-28 CAR @ VAN UNDER 3.5 lean -180 65.6% 60.2% +2.1% 2 W +0.56 —
2024-10-28 CAR @ VAN UNDER 1.5 lean +140 43.6% 38.9% +4.6% 2 L -1.00 —
2024-10-28 TOR @ WPG UNDER 4.5 lean -110 53.9% 49.0% +2.8% 5 L -1.00 —
2024-10-27 COL vs OTT UNDER 2.5 best +100 52.9% 46.5% +5.8% 6 L -1.00 —
2024-10-27 COL vs OTT UNDER 3.5 lean -140 60.0% 54.5% +2.8% 1 W +0.71 —
2024-10-26 CAR @ SEA UNDER 2.5 lean +130 44.9% 40.6% +3.3% 5 L -1.00 —
2024-10-26 CAR @ SEA UNDER 2.5 lean +130 45.2% 40.6% +4.1% 1 W +1.30 —
2024-10-26 CAR @ SEA UNDER 2.5 lean +125 45.9% 41.4% +3.3% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-10-26 CAR @ SEA UNDER 1.5 lean +135 44.5% 39.8% +4.7% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-10-26 VAN vs PIT UNDER 1.5 lean +120 46.5% 42.5% +2.3% 2 L -1.00 —
2024-10-26 TOR @ BOS UNDER 4.5 lean -110 53.5% 49.0% +2.1% 3 W +0.91 —
2024-10-25 NSH @ CHI UNDER 3.5 lean -110 54.4% 49.0% +3.8% 1 W +0.91 —
2024-10-25 NYI @ NJD UNDER 2.5 lean -115 55.1% 50.0% +2.9% 4 L -1.00 —
2024-10-25 NYI @ NJD UNDER 2.5 lean -110 54.0% 49.0% +3.0% 6 L -1.00 —
2024-10-25 NYI @ NJD UNDER 2.5 lean +130 45.2% 40.9% +3.9% 2 W +1.30 —
2024-10-24 COL @ UTA UNDER 2.5 best +115 49.9% 43.4% +7.3% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-10-24 UTA vs COL UNDER 2.5 lean +110 49.0% 44.6% +3.0% 2 W +1.10 —
2024-10-24 COL @ UTA UNDER 1.5 lean +110 49.2% 44.6% +3.3% 0 W +1.10 —
2024-10-24 CAR @ CGY UNDER 2.5 lean +125 45.4% 41.7% +2.1% 4 L -1.00 —
2024-10-24 CAR @ CGY UNDER 2.5 lean +120 46.8% 42.8% +2.9% 6 L -1.00 —
2024-10-24 TOR vs STL UNDER 4.5 lean +115 48.0% 43.4% +3.1% 3 W +1.15 —
2024-10-22 COL @ SEA UNDER 2.5 best -120 57.5% 51.0% +5.3% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-10-22 SEA vs COL UNDER 2.5 lean +105 49.9% 45.5% +2.4% 2 W +1.05 —
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