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← Stats / BUF @ TBL

BUF @ TBL

Saturday, January 2, 2027 · 6:00 PM CT

How the Matchup Page Works

Lines

Before puck drop the page uses Hard Rock Bet's latest moneyline, puck line and total; once the game is final it switches to Hard Rock's closing line so you can see how each bet graded. Hard Rock only — no other sportsbook is shown. Hard Rock doesn't post period totals to our feed, so the period table shows DraftKings and FanDuel lines (labelled DK / FD) and grades at DraftKings' number (FanDuel's if DraftKings has none, 1.5 if neither has posted); the 0.5 / 1.5 / 2.5 chips grade at a fixed line instead. vs DK/FD Close is each team's record against past games' DraftKings (else FanDuel) closing period total.

Betting trends

Each team's hit rate at tonight's number: Season (last season until 5 games are played), L5 / L10, Venue (home games for the home team, road games for the visitor) and H2H (meetings this season and last). vs HR Close is the record against each past game's own Hard Rock closing line (moneyline: in the role — favorite or underdog — the team has tonight). Trends only use games played before this one.

Totals and puck lines are graded on the official final score (overtime counts; the shootout winner gets one goal). Period totals use regulation goals of that period only.

Props, goalies, H2H

Player props lists every Hard Rock line for this game with Season / L10 / H2H over rates at that line; after the game the actual stat is shown. Goalies shows each team's starter from ESPN's probable-goalie report: Confirmed once the team or a beat reporter confirms it, Expected before that, refreshed every 30 minutes on game days. With no report yet it falls back to the team's most recent starter (Last start). After the game it shows the real starters from the box score. Injuries lists both teams' players on ESPN's injury report (Day-To-Day, Out, Injured Reserve) before puck drop. Head-to-head lists recent meetings with period scores and how the Hard Rock closing total graded.

Informational only. Not betting advice.

Buffalo Sabres
4-4-3 · Away
6:00 PM CT
Tampa Bay Lightning
7-3-1 · Home
Hard Rock Lines Hard Rock hasn't posted this game yet
Moneyline
BUF — · TBL —
Puck Line
—
Total
—
Betting Trends Season
MarketTeamLineSeasonL5L10VenueH2Hvs HR Close
Puck Line
cover %
 BUF+1.5 64%
7-4
80%
4-1
70%
7-3
80%
4-1
100%
4-0
-2.18u
5-6
TBL-1.5 46%
5-6
40%
2-3
50%
5-5
60%
3-2
0%
0-4
-1.59u
5-6
Moneyline
win %
 BUF — 36%
4-7
20%
1-4
40%
4-6
20%
1-4
75%
3-1
-3.79u
4-7
TBL — 64%
7-4
60%
3-2
70%
7-3
100%
5-0
25%
1-3
-0.30u
7-4
Period Totals grade at DK/FD line 0.5 1.5 2.5 · Hard Rock posts no period totals — DraftKings / FanDuel shown
PeriodDK / FDTeamSeasonL5L10VenueH2Hvs DK/FD CloseAvg goalsGF / GA
1st Period
over 2.5
 no DK/FD line BUF 55%
6-5
60%
3-2
50%
5-5
80%
4-1
50%
2-2
82%
9-2
 2.36 0.91 / 1.45
TBL 27%
3-8
40%
2-3
30%
3-7
0%
0-5
50%
2-2
82%
9-2
 2.36 1.27 / 1.09
2nd Period
over 2.5
 no DK/FD line BUF 36%
4-7
20%
1-4
30%
3-7
40%
2-3
25%
1-3
82%
9-2
 2.27 0.64 / 1.64
TBL 64%
7-4
80%
4-1
60%
6-4
40%
2-3
25%
1-3
73%
8-3
 2.55 1.18 / 1.36
3rd Period
over 2.5
 no DK/FD line BUF 0%
0-11
0%
0-5
0%
0-10
0%
0-5
50%
2-2
0%
0-11
 1.45 1.09 / 0.36
TBL 18%
2-9
40%
2-3
20%
2-8
20%
1-4
50%
2-2
36%
4-7
 1.45 0.91 / 0.55
Team Comparison '26-27
BUFTBL
Record (W-L-OTL)4-4-37-3-1
Points %50.0%68.2%
Goals for / game2.823.45
Goals against / game3.733.09
Shots for / game26.430.4
Shots against / game26.524.5
Power play %10.5%15.0%
Penalty kill %69.2%76.7%
Faceoff %48.1%48.9%
1st period GF / GA0.91 / 1.451.27 / 1.09
2nd period GF / GA0.64 / 1.641.18 / 1.36
3rd period GF / GA1.09 / 0.360.91 / 0.55
Avg game total6.556.55
Probable Goalies ESPN confirmed / expected, else last starter
BUF · Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen Last start
Last start Oct 24 · 8 GS · SV% .866 · GAA 3.56
TBL · Dennis Hildeby Last start
Last start Oct 24 · 3 GS · SV% .885 · GAA 2.98
Player Props Hard Rock lines for this game · over rates at each line

No Hard Rock player lines for this game yet — they usually post the morning of game day.

Injuries ESPN injury report
BUFStatusNote
Justin Danforth DTD Upper Body day-to-day
Jiri Kulich OUT Face Kulich (face) is back in Buffalo for evaluation and won't play against Washington on Saturday, according to Paul Hamilton of WGR Sports Radio 550.
Sam Carrick IR Upper Body ir
Alex Lyon IR Upper Body Lyon (upper body) had a setback in his recovery and is without a timeline to return, the team announced Thursday.
Matt Grzelcyk IR Lower Body Grzelcyk (lower body) suffered a "flare-up" and could be out for at least "a few days," head coach Lindy Ruff told Rachel Lenzi of The Buffalo News on Tuesday.
Conor Timmins IR Lower Body Timmins (lower body) doesn't have a timeline for his return yet, according to Heather Engel of NHL.com on Tuesday.
Jack Rathbone IR Undisclosed ir-nr
TBLStatusNote
Victor Hedman DTD Lower Body day-to-day
Zemgus Girgensons DTD Undisclosed day-to-day
Yanni Gourde IR Hip Gourde (hip) was placed on the injured non-roster list Monday.
Head-to-Head last 10 meetings
DateWhereScoreP1P2P3TotalHR CloseWinner
Apr 6, 2026 at BUF TBL 2–4 1–21–10–1 6 6.5 U BUF
Mar 8, 2026 at BUF TBL 7–8 0–14–33–4 15 6.5 O BUF
Feb 28, 2026 at TBL TBL 2–6 0–41–11–1 8 6.5 O BUF
Feb 3, 2026 at TBL TBL 4–3 OT 1–10–02–2 7 6.5 O TBL
Apr 13, 2025 at TBL TBL 7–4 1–24–02–2 11 6.5 O TBL
Apr 5, 2025 at BUF TBL 2–3 SO 0–02–10–1 5 6.5 U BUF
Mar 6, 2025 at TBL TBL 6–5 2–33–21–0 11 6.5 O TBL
Apr 15, 2024 at TBL TBL 2–4 0–11–21–1 6 — BUF
Feb 29, 2024 at TBL TBL 2–3 OT 1–11–00–1 5 — BUF
Jan 20, 2024 at BUF TBL 3–1 2–00–11–0 4 — TBL