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6:30 PM
EDM -140 15-3-3
PHI 5.5 6-10-6
7:00 PM
FLA 5.5 12-7-2
DAL -130 11-6-2
7:00 PM
CGY 6.5 9-10-1
ANA -150 10-9-1
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VAN 6.5 3-17-1
VGK -450 13-5-3
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NSH -170 11-4-5
SJS 6.5 9-11-2
← Models / Points Model — Pick History

Points Model — Pick History

Today's board · Performance

Pick History

What's listed

Every over/under pick the points model made, at the Hard Rock line closest to even money, and how it graded. Live picks are the model's last prediction before puck drop. Backtest picks replay past seasons at Hard Rock's closing line, using only information from before each game.

Columns

  • Conf — the model's probability that the pick wins. Book — Hard Rock's de-vigged probability of the same side.
  • Units — result of a flat 1-unit bet at the listed price.

Tiers

Top, strong and lean are confidence bands; a toss-up is a player the model has almost no opinion on. The default view hides toss-ups.

Settlement

Overtime counts, shootouts don't, and a player who doesn't play is a void.

Informational only. Not betting advice.

Live Backtest
Record
20667-12503
0 void · 0 pending
Accuracy
62.3%
expected 62.2%
Book favorite, same picks
62.3%
always taking Hard Rock's favored side
Units
-1,634.44u
ROI -4.9% · flat 1u
DatePlayerGamePickTierPriceConfBook PointsResultUnits
2026-10-27
Mathieu Olivier
 CBJ @ PHI UNDER 0.5 Top -275 67.1% 68.4% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-27
Josh Anderson
 MTL @ STL UNDER 0.5 Top -260 67.1% 67.7% 0 W +0.39
2026-10-27
Jason Robertson
 DAL vs NJD UNDER 1.5 Top -210 66.8% 62.9% 0 W +0.48
2026-10-27
Lars Eller
 FLA @ WPG UNDER 0.5 Top -240 66.8% 66.0% 0 W +0.42
2026-10-27
Sean Couturier
 PHI vs CBJ UNDER 0.5 Top -230 66.6% 65.3% 0 W +0.44
2026-10-27
Matthew Wood
 NSH vs NYI UNDER 0.5 Top -220 66.1% 64.1% 0 W +0.46
2026-10-27
Jack Hughes
 NJD @ DAL OVER 0.5 Strong -240 65.9% 66.0% 2 W +0.42
2026-10-27
Olen Zellweger
 BUF @ SJS UNDER 0.5 Strong -240 65.8% 66.0% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-27
Conor Garland
 CBJ @ PHI UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 65.7% 63.3% 0 W +0.48
2026-10-27
Aaron Ekblad
 FLA @ WPG UNDER 0.5 Strong -240 65.6% 66.0% 0 W +0.42
2026-10-27
Cole Sillinger
 CBJ @ PHI UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 65.5% 63.8% 0 W +0.48
2026-10-27
Mattias Samuelsson
 BUF @ SJS UNDER 0.5 Strong -260 65.5% 67.3% 0 W +0.39
2026-10-27
Sam Colangelo
 ANA vs VAN UNDER 0.5 Strong -220 65.4% 64.1% 2 L -1.00
2026-10-27
Quinn Hughes
 MIN @ UTA OVER 0.5 Strong -220 65.4% 64.1% 2 W +0.46
2026-10-27
Mark Scheifele
 WPG vs FLA OVER 0.5 Strong -210 65.4% 63.3% 0 L -1.00
2026-10-27
Oliver Bonk
 PHI vs CBJ UNDER 0.5 Strong -240 65.3% 66.0% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-27
Fabian Zetterlund
 OTT @ VGK UNDER 0.5 Strong -220 65.2% 64.6% 0 W +0.46
2026-10-27
Kirill Kaprizov
 MIN @ UTA UNDER 1.5 Strong -185 65.1% 60.4% 2 L -1.00
2026-10-27
Zachary Bolduc
 MTL @ STL UNDER 0.5 Strong -225 65.1% 64.7% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-27
Mark Stone
 VGK vs OTT OVER 0.5 Strong -220 64.9% 64.1% 1 W +0.46
2026-10-27
David Pastrnak
 BOS @ CAR OVER 0.5 Strong -210 64.9% 62.9% 1 W +0.48
2026-10-27
Dougie Hamilton
 NJD @ DAL UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 64.9% 63.8% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-27
Alex Bump
 PHI vs CBJ UNDER 0.5 Strong -200 64.8% 62.5% 0 W +0.50
2026-10-27
Jackson LaCombe
 ANA vs VAN OVER 0.5 Strong -225 64.8% 64.7% 3 W +0.44
2026-10-27
Chris Kreider
 MTL @ STL UNDER 0.5 Strong -225 64.8% 64.7% 0 W +0.44
2026-10-27
Jordan Martinook
 CAR vs BOS UNDER 0.5 Strong -220 64.7% 64.1% 0 W +0.46
2026-10-27
Lawson Crouse
 UTA vs MIN UNDER 0.5 Strong -220 64.6% 64.1% 0 W +0.46
2026-10-27
Cole Caufield
 MTL @ STL OVER 0.5 Strong -210 64.5% 63.8% 0 L -1.00
2026-10-27
Eetu Luostarinen
 FLA @ WPG UNDER 0.5 Strong -225 64.5% 64.7% 0 W +0.44
2026-10-27
William Carrier
 CAR vs BOS UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 64.5% 62.9% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-27
K'Andre Miller
 CAR vs BOS UNDER 0.5 Strong -220 64.5% 64.1% 0 W +0.46
2026-10-27
Bobby Brink
 MIN @ UTA UNDER 0.5 Strong -230 64.3% 64.9% 0 W +0.44
2026-10-27
Casey Mittelstadt
 BOS @ CAR UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 64.2% 63.3% 0 W +0.48
2026-10-27
Fraser Minten
 BOS @ CAR UNDER 0.5 Strong -220 64.2% 64.6% 0 W +0.46
2026-10-27
Cam Fowler
 STL vs MTL UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 64.1% 63.3% 0 W +0.48
2026-10-27
Michael Misa
 SJS vs BUF UNDER 0.5 Strong -225 64.1% 64.7% 0 W +0.44
2026-10-27
Konsta Helenius
 BUF @ SJS UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 64.0% 63.3% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-27
James Hagens
 BOS @ CAR UNDER 0.5 Strong -200 64.0% 62.5% 0 W +0.50
2026-10-27
Jacob Trouba
 SJS vs BUF UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 63.6% 63.3% 0 W +0.48
2026-10-27
Macklin Celebrini
 SJS vs BUF UNDER 1.5 Strong -195 63.6% 61.8% 0 W +0.51
2026-10-27
Dylan Guenther
 UTA vs MIN OVER 0.5 Strong -210 63.6% 63.3% 0 L -1.00
2026-10-27
Dawson Mercer
 WPG vs FLA UNDER 0.5 Strong -220 63.6% 64.1% 0 W +0.46
2026-10-27
Victor Eklund
 NYI @ NSH UNDER 0.5 Strong -195 63.5% 60.3% 0 W +0.51
2026-10-27
Jonatan Berggren
 STL vs MTL UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 63.4% 63.3% 0 W +0.48
2026-10-27
Beckett Sennecke
 ANA vs VAN OVER 0.5 Strong -200 63.2% 62.5% 1 W +0.50
2026-10-27
Kiefer Sherwood
 SJS vs BUF UNDER 0.5 Strong -220 63.2% 64.1% 0 W +0.46
2026-10-27
Anders Lee
 UTA vs MIN UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 63.1% 62.9% 0 W +0.48
2026-10-27
Rasmus Dahlin
 BUF @ SJS OVER 0.5 Strong -190 63.1% 61.1% 0 L -1.00
2026-10-27
Jamie Drysdale
 PHI vs CBJ UNDER 0.5 Strong -200 63.1% 62.0% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-27
Jonathan Lekkerimäki
 VAN @ ANA UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 63.0% 63.3% 3 L -1.00
2026-10-27
Kailer Yamamoto
 UTA vs MIN UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 62.9% 63.3% 0 W +0.48
2026-10-27
Mikael Granlund
 ANA vs VAN OVER 0.5 Strong -195 62.9% 61.8% 0 L -1.00
2026-10-27
Barrett Hayton
 UTA vs MIN UNDER 0.5 Strong -200 62.8% 62.5% 0 W +0.50
2026-10-27
Alex Newhook
 MTL @ STL UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 62.7% 63.3% 0 W +0.48
2026-10-27
Patrick Kane
 CHI vs LAK OVER 0.5 Strong -190 62.5% 61.1% 1 W +0.53
2026-10-27
Collin Graf
 SJS vs BUF UNDER 0.5 Strong -200 62.5% 62.5% 0 W +0.50
2026-10-27
Alexander Kerfoot
 NSH vs NYI UNDER 0.5 Strong -180 62.5% 60.2% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-27
Trevor Moore
 LAK @ CHI UNDER 0.5 Strong -165 62.1% 57.8% 0 W +0.61
2026-10-27
Brandt Clarke
 LAK @ CHI UNDER 0.5 Strong -180 62.0% 60.2% 0 W +0.56
2026-10-27
Mavrik Bourque
 NSH vs NYI UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 61.9% 61.4% 0 W +0.48
2026-10-27
Sam Reinhart
 FLA @ WPG OVER 0.5 Strong -175 61.8% 59.4% 1 W +0.57
2026-10-27
Emil Heineman
 NYI @ NSH UNDER 0.5 Strong -165 61.6% 57.8% 0 W +0.61
2026-10-27
Damon Severson
 CBJ @ PHI UNDER 0.5 Strong -180 61.6% 60.2% 0 W +0.56
2026-10-27
Robert Thomas
 STL vs MTL OVER 0.5 Strong -180 61.5% 60.2% 0 L -1.00
2026-10-27
Jack Eichel
 VGK vs OTT UNDER 1.5 Strong -185 61.5% 60.4% 1 W +0.54
2026-10-27
Andrei Svechnikov
 CAR vs BOS OVER 0.5 Strong -190 61.4% 61.1% 1 W +0.53
2026-10-27
Blake Coleman
 MIN @ UTA UNDER 0.5 Strong -200 61.4% 62.5% 0 W +0.50
2026-10-27
Tim Stützle
 OTT @ VGK OVER 0.5 Strong -195 61.4% 61.8% 0 L -1.00
2026-10-27
Filip Chytil
 VAN @ ANA UNDER 0.5 Strong -185 61.2% 60.9% 0 W +0.54
2026-10-27
Marco Rossi
 VAN @ ANA UNDER 0.5 Strong -220 61.1% 64.1% 0 W +0.46
2026-10-27
Zach Werenski
 CBJ @ PHI OVER 0.5 Strong -185 61.1% 60.9% 2 W +0.54
2026-10-27
Judd Caulfield
 ANA vs VAN UNDER 0.5 Strong -190 61.0% 61.1% 0 W +0.53
2026-10-27
Braeden Bowman
 VGK vs OTT UNDER 0.5 Lean -180 60.9% 60.2% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-27
Brady Tkachuk
 FLA @ WPG OVER 0.5 Lean -180 60.8% 60.2% 3 W +0.56
2026-10-27
Sean Monahan
 CBJ @ PHI UNDER 0.5 Lean -180 60.6% 60.2% 0 W +0.56
2026-10-27
Erik Gustafsson
 LAK @ CHI UNDER 0.5 Lean -140 60.6% 54.5% 0 W +0.71
2026-10-27
Tyler Toffoli
 SJS vs BUF UNDER 0.5 Lean -195 60.5% 61.8% 0 W +0.51
2026-10-27
Filip Forsberg
 NSH vs NYI OVER 0.5 Lean -175 60.5% 59.4% 2 W +0.57
2026-10-27
Wyatt Johnston
 DAL vs NJD OVER 0.5 Lean -180 60.4% 60.2% 0 L -1.00
2026-10-27
Nick Schmaltz
 UTA vs MIN OVER 0.5 Lean -200 60.3% 58.9% 1 W +0.50
2026-10-27
Nikolaj Ehlers
 CAR vs BOS OVER 0.5 Lean -170 60.2% 59.2% 1 W +0.59
2026-10-27
Shane Pinto
 OTT @ VGK UNDER 0.5 Lean -180 60.1% 60.2% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-27
Dmitry Orlov
 SJS vs BUF UNDER 0.5 Lean -170 59.9% 58.6% 0 W +0.59
2026-10-27
Mikhail Sergachev
 UTA vs MIN OVER 0.5 Lean -175 59.9% 59.4% 1 W +0.57
2026-10-27
Jake Neighbours
 STL vs MTL UNDER 0.5 Lean -180 59.8% 60.2% 0 W +0.56
2026-10-27
Jackson Blake
 CAR vs BOS OVER 0.5 Lean -170 59.7% 58.6% 1 W +0.59
2026-10-27
Tyson Foerster
 PHI vs CBJ UNDER 0.5 Lean -175 59.6% 59.4% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-27
Ryan O'Reilly
 NSH vs NYI OVER 0.5 Lean -170 59.6% 58.6% 1 W +0.59
2026-10-27
Shea Theodore
 VGK vs OTT UNDER 0.5 Lean -190 59.5% 61.1% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-27
Dylan Holloway
 STL vs MTL OVER 0.5 Lean -160 59.3% 57.5% 0 L -1.00
2026-10-27
Arseny Gritsyuk
 NJD @ DAL UNDER 0.5 Lean -150 59.2% 56.3% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-27
Ryan McLeod
 BUF @ SJS UNDER 0.5 Lean -185 59.2% 60.4% 0 W +0.54
2026-10-27
Jack Quinn
 BUF @ SJS OVER 0.5 Lean -165 59.2% 58.4% 0 L -1.00
2026-10-27
Brett Howden
 VGK vs OTT UNDER 0.5 Lean -170 59.2% 59.2% 0 W +0.59
2026-10-27
Denver Barkey
 PHI vs CBJ UNDER 0.5 Lean -150 59.1% 56.3% 0 W +0.67
2026-10-27
Juraj Slafkovský
 MTL @ STL OVER 0.5 Lean -160 59.1% 57.5% 0 L -1.00
2026-10-27
Maxim Shabanov
 MIN @ UTA UNDER 0.5 Lean -180 58.9% 60.2% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-27
Steven Stamkos
 NSH vs NYI OVER 0.5 Lean -170 58.9% 58.6% 1 W +0.59
2026-10-27
Josh Norris
 BUF @ SJS UNDER 0.5 Lean -180 58.9% 60.2% 0 W +0.56
2026-10-27
Adrian Kempe
 LAK @ CHI OVER 0.5 Lean -185 58.8% 60.9% 0 L -1.00
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