NHL Today
6:30 PM
EDM -140 15-3-3
PHI 5.5 6-10-6
7:00 PM
FLA 5.5 12-7-2
DAL -130 11-6-2
7:00 PM
CGY 6.5 9-10-1
ANA -150 10-9-1
8:00 PM
VAN 6.5 3-17-1
VGK -450 13-5-3
8:00 PM
NSH -170 11-4-5
SJS 6.5 9-11-2
← Models / Points Model — Pick History

Points Model — Pick History

Today's board · Performance

Pick History

What's listed

Every over/under pick the points model made, at the Hard Rock line closest to even money, and how it graded. Live picks are the model's last prediction before puck drop. Backtest picks replay past seasons at Hard Rock's closing line, using only information from before each game.

Columns

  • Conf — the model's probability that the pick wins. Book — Hard Rock's de-vigged probability of the same side.
  • Units — result of a flat 1-unit bet at the listed price.

Tiers

Top, strong and lean are confidence bands; a toss-up is a player the model has almost no opinion on. The default view hides toss-ups.

Settlement

Overtime counts, shootouts don't, and a player who doesn't play is a void.

Informational only. Not betting advice.

Live Backtest
Record
20667-12503
0 void · 0 pending
Accuracy
62.3%
expected 62.2%
Book favorite, same picks
62.3%
always taking Hard Rock's favored side
Units
-1,634.44u
ROI -4.9% · flat 1u
DatePlayerGamePickTierPriceConfBook PointsResultUnits
2026-11-09
Jamie Drysdale
 PHI @ VAN UNDER 0.5 Lean -145 56.4% 55.4% 0 W +0.69
2026-11-08
Dylan DeMelo
 WPG vs TBL UNDER 0.5 Top -325 72.9% 72.2% 0 W +0.31
2026-11-08
Aaron Ekblad
 FLA @ BOS UNDER 0.5 Top -300 72.0% 69.9% 0 W +0.33
2026-11-08
Lars Eller
 FLA @ BOS UNDER 0.5 Top -240 70.2% 66.0% 0 W +0.42
2026-11-08
Leo Carlsson
 ANA vs PIT OVER 0.5 Top -250 69.7% 66.7% 0 L -1.00
2026-11-08
Oliver Bonk
 PHI @ CGY UNDER 0.5 Top -260 68.5% 67.3% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-08
Jack Eichel
 VGK @ BUF UNDER 1.5 Top -260 68.4% 67.3% 1 W +0.39
2026-11-08
Mattias Samuelsson
 BUF vs VGK UNDER 0.5 Top -275 68.3% 68.8% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-08
Kyle Connor
 WPG vs TBL OVER 0.5 Top -230 68.3% 64.9% 0 L -1.00
2026-11-08
Cutter Gauthier
 ANA vs PIT OVER 0.5 Top -240 68.2% 66.0% 4 W +0.42
2026-11-08
Olen Zellweger
 BUF vs VGK UNDER 0.5 Top -275 67.2% 68.8% 0 W +0.36
2026-11-08
Kris Letang
 PIT @ ANA UNDER 0.5 Top -225 67.2% 64.7% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-08
Mark Scheifele
 WPG vs TBL OVER 0.5 Top -210 66.8% 63.3% 2 W +0.48
2026-11-08
Simon Nemec
 CGY vs PHI UNDER 0.5 Top -225 66.8% 64.7% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-08
Auston Matthews
 TOR vs NJD OVER 0.5 Top -240 66.8% 66.0% 0 L -1.00
2026-11-08
Yegor Sharangovich
 CGY vs PHI UNDER 0.5 Top -220 66.7% 64.1% 2 L -1.00
2026-11-08
Aydar Suniev
 CGY vs PHI UNDER 0.5 Top -220 66.1% 64.1% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-08
Beckett Sennecke
 ANA vs PIT OVER 0.5 Strong -195 65.0% 61.8% 1 W +0.51
2026-11-08
William Nylander
 TOR vs NJD OVER 0.5 Strong -200 64.9% 62.5% 0 L -1.00
2026-11-08
Tage Thompson
 BUF vs VGK OVER 0.5 Strong -210 64.5% 63.3% 0 L -1.00
2026-11-08
Victor Hedman
 TBL @ WPG UNDER 0.5 Strong -200 64.5% 62.5% 0 W +0.50
2026-11-08
Jason Zucker
 BUF vs VGK UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 64.5% 63.8% 0 W +0.48
2026-11-08
Mitch Marner
 VGK @ BUF OVER 0.5 Strong -190 64.3% 61.1% 2 W +0.53
2026-11-08
David Pastrnak
 BOS vs FLA UNDER 1.5 Strong -240 64.1% 66.0% 2 L -1.00
2026-11-08
Dawson Mercer
 WPG vs TBL UNDER 0.5 Strong -240 64.0% 66.0% 0 W +0.42
2026-11-08
Shea Theodore
 VGK @ BUF UNDER 0.5 Strong -230 63.5% 65.3% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-08
Ryan Strome
 CGY vs PHI UNDER 0.5 Strong -190 63.5% 61.1% 0 W +0.53
2026-11-08
Matthew Tkachuk
 FLA @ BOS OVER 0.5 Strong -240 63.3% 65.6% 1 W +0.42
2026-11-08
Egor Chinakhov
 PIT @ ANA UNDER 0.5 Strong -180 63.0% 60.2% 0 W +0.56
2026-11-08
Jesper Bratt
 NJD @ TOR OVER 0.5 Strong -195 62.9% 61.8% 2 W +0.51
2026-11-08
Jake Guentzel
 TBL @ WPG OVER 0.5 Strong -195 62.5% 61.8% 0 L -1.00
2026-11-08
Fraser Minten
 BOS vs FLA UNDER 0.5 Strong -225 62.3% 64.7% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-08
Zayne Parekh
 CGY vs PHI UNDER 0.5 Strong -175 61.9% 59.4% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-08
Nikita Kucherov
 TBL @ WPG UNDER 1.5 Strong -175 61.8% 59.4% 0 W +0.57
2026-11-08
Owen Tippett
 PHI @ CGY UNDER 0.5 Strong -175 61.3% 59.4% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-08
Evan Rodrigues
 NJD @ TOR UNDER 0.5 Strong -180 61.2% 60.2% 0 W +0.56
2026-11-08
Jackson LaCombe
 ANA vs PIT OVER 0.5 Lean -160 60.9% 57.5% 3 W +0.63
2026-11-08
Owen Power
 BUF vs VGK UNDER 0.5 Lean -190 60.8% 61.1% 0 W +0.53
2026-11-08
Ivan Barbashev
 VGK @ BUF UNDER 0.5 Lean -190 60.5% 61.1% 2 L -1.00
2026-11-08
Jack Hughes
 NJD @ TOR UNDER 1.5 Lean -175 60.3% 59.4% 2 L -1.00
2026-11-08
Trevor Connelly
 VGK @ BUF UNDER 0.5 Lean -185 60.2% 60.4% 0 W +0.54
2026-11-08
Sidney Crosby
 PIT @ ANA OVER 0.5 Lean -190 60.2% 61.1% 1 W +0.53
2026-11-08
Mikael Granlund
 ANA vs PIT OVER 0.5 Lean -155 60.0% 56.7% 4 W +0.65
2026-11-08
Tyson Foerster
 PHI @ CGY UNDER 0.5 Lean -160 59.6% 57.5% 0 W +0.63
2026-11-08
Casey Mittelstadt
 BOS vs FLA UNDER 0.5 Lean -180 59.5% 60.2% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-08
Jamie Drysdale
 PHI @ CGY UNDER 0.5 Lean -165 59.4% 58.4% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-08
Tristan Luneau
 ANA vs PIT UNDER 0.5 Lean -190 59.2% 61.1% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-08
Christian Dvorak
 PHI @ CGY UNDER 0.5 Lean -160 59.0% 57.5% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-08
Mikael Backlund
 CGY vs PHI UNDER 0.5 Lean -155 59.0% 56.7% 0 W +0.65
2026-11-08
Nico Hischier
 NJD @ TOR OVER 0.5 Lean -165 58.9% 58.4% 2 W +0.61
2026-11-08
William Karlsson
 VGK @ BUF UNDER 0.5 Lean -175 58.9% 59.4% 0 W +0.57
2026-11-08
Easton Cowan
 TOR vs NJD UNDER 0.5 Lean -170 58.9% 59.2% 0 W +0.59
2026-11-08
Pavel Zacha
 BOS vs FLA OVER 0.5 Lean -150 58.9% 56.3% 2 W +0.67
2026-11-08
Anthony Cirelli
 TBL @ WPG UNDER 0.5 Lean -160 58.8% 57.5% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-08
Mark Stone
 VGK @ BUF OVER 0.5 Lean -155 58.6% 56.7% 0 L -1.00
2026-11-08
Rasmus Dahlin
 BUF vs VGK OVER 0.5 Lean -155 58.6% 56.7% 0 L -1.00
2026-11-08
Porter Martone
 PHI @ CGY UNDER 0.5 Lean -155 58.5% 56.7% 0 W +0.65
2026-11-08
Connor Brown
 NJD @ TOR UNDER 0.5 Lean -165 58.2% 58.4% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-08
Brayden Point
 TBL @ WPG OVER 0.5 Lean -170 58.1% 58.6% 0 L -1.00
2026-11-08
Dougie Hamilton
 NJD @ TOR UNDER 0.5 Lean -170 57.8% 58.6% 0 W +0.59
2026-11-08
Sam Bennett
 FLA @ BOS UNDER 0.5 Lean -135 57.7% 54.1% 0 W +0.74
2026-11-08
Morgan Frost
 CGY vs PHI UNDER 0.5 Lean -145 57.2% 55.4% 0 W +0.69
2026-11-08
Zach Benson
 BUF vs VGK OVER 0.5 Lean -150 57.1% 56.3% 0 L -1.00
2026-11-08
Judd Caulfield
 ANA vs PIT UNDER 0.5 Lean -170 56.8% 58.6% 0 W +0.59
2026-11-08
Sam Reinhart
 FLA @ BOS OVER 0.5 Lean -165 56.6% 58.4% 0 L -1.00
2026-11-08
Charle-Edouard D'Astous
 TBL @ WPG UNDER 0.5 Lean -140 56.3% 54.5% 0 W +0.71
2026-11-08
Victor Olofsson
 VGK @ BUF UNDER 0.5 Lean -160 56.3% 55.2% 0 W +0.63
2026-11-08
Jack Quinn
 BUF vs VGK OVER 0.5 Lean -145 56.1% 55.4% 0 L -1.00
2026-11-08
Brady Tkachuk
 FLA @ BOS OVER 0.5 Lean -175 56.0% 59.4% 1 W +0.57
2026-11-07
Logan Stanley
 NYI vs NJD UNDER 0.5 Top -325 73.4% 71.6% 0 W +0.31
2026-11-07
Oliver Ekman-Larsson
 TOR vs MTL UNDER 0.5 Top -325 71.7% 71.6% 0 W +0.31
2026-11-07
Artyom Levshunov
 CHI @ CAR UNDER 0.5 Top -260 71.4% 67.3% 0 W +0.39
2026-11-07
Jack McBain
 UTA @ OTT UNDER 0.5 Top -300 71.2% 69.9% 0 W +0.33
2026-11-07
Kiefer Sherwood
 SJS @ DAL UNDER 0.5 Top -230 69.7% 65.3% 0 W +0.44
2026-11-07
Jake Guentzel
 TBL @ MIN OVER 0.5 Top -250 69.3% 66.7% 3 W +0.40
2026-11-07
Ross Colton
 NSH vs STL UNDER 0.5 Top -260 68.7% 67.3% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-07
Lawson Crouse
 UTA @ OTT UNDER 0.5 Top -275 68.4% 68.8% 0 W +0.36
2026-11-07
Hendrix Lapierre
 PIT @ LAK UNDER 0.5 Top -250 67.8% 66.7% 0 W +0.40
2026-11-07
Ville Koivunen
 PIT @ LAK UNDER 0.5 Top -240 67.8% 66.0% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-07
Danila Yurov
 MIN vs TBL UNDER 0.5 Top -230 67.8% 64.9% 0 W +0.44
2026-11-07
Justin Faulk
 DET @ COL UNDER 0.5 Top -275 67.7% 68.4% 0 W +0.36
2026-11-07
William Nylander
 TOR vs MTL OVER 0.5 Top -220 67.6% 64.1% 1 W +0.46
2026-11-07
Martin Necas
 COL vs DET UNDER 1.5 Top -240 67.6% 66.0% 4 L -1.00
2026-11-07
Jean-Gabriel Pageau
 NYI vs NJD UNDER 0.5 Top -250 67.6% 66.7% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-07
Aaron Ekblad
 FLA @ WSH UNDER 0.5 Top -275 67.4% 68.4% 0 W +0.36
2026-11-07
Clayton Keller
 UTA @ OTT UNDER 1.5 Top -220 67.4% 64.1% 2 L -1.00
2026-11-07
Cam Fowler
 STL @ NSH UNDER 0.5 Top -250 67.3% 67.1% 0 W +0.40
2026-11-07
Artemi Panarin
 LAK vs PIT UNDER 1.5 Top -240 67.1% 66.0% 1 W +0.42
2026-11-07
Bobby Brink
 MIN vs TBL UNDER 0.5 Top -210 67.1% 63.8% 0 W +0.48
2026-11-07
Cale Makar
 COL vs DET OVER 0.5 Top -230 66.8% 64.9% 3 W +0.44
2026-11-07
Eetu Luostarinen
 FLA @ WSH UNDER 0.5 Top -260 66.8% 67.7% 0 W +0.39
2026-11-07
Tim Stützle
 OTT vs UTA UNDER 1.5 Top -230 66.7% 65.3% 1 W +0.44
2026-11-07
Ilya Protas
 WSH vs FLA UNDER 0.5 Top -250 66.7% 67.1% 0 W +0.40
2026-11-07
Matthew Tkachuk
 FLA @ WSH OVER 0.5 Top -240 66.6% 66.0% 3 W +0.42
2026-11-07
Shane Wright
 NSH vs STL UNDER 0.5 Top -225 66.6% 64.7% 0 W +0.44
2026-11-07
Cole Caufield
 MTL @ TOR OVER 0.5 Top -240 66.5% 65.6% 1 W +0.42
2026-11-07
Michael Brandsegg-Nygård
 DET @ COL UNDER 0.5 Top -230 66.5% 65.3% 0 W +0.44
2026-11-07
Tyler Bertuzzi
 CHI @ CAR UNDER 0.5 Top -240 66.4% 66.0% 0 W +0.42
2026-11-07
Morgan Rielly
 TOR vs MTL UNDER 0.5 Top -240 66.4% 66.0% 0 W +0.42
2026-11-07
Ivar Stenberg
 SJS @ DAL UNDER 0.5 Top -225 66.2% 59.8% 1 L -1.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9