← Models / SOG Model — Pick History

SOG Model — Pick History

Today's board · Performance

Pick History

What's listed

Every best bet and lean the shots on goal model made, with the Hard Rock line and price it was made at and how it graded. Live picks are the model's last prediction before puck drop. Backtest picks are a walk-forward simulation of past seasons priced at Hard Rock's closing line, using only information available before each game.

Columns

  • Model / Book — the model's and Hard Rock's (de-vigged) probability for the picked side.
  • EV — expected profit per unit at the price.
  • Units — result of a 1-unit bet (a win at +120 pays +1.20u, a loss is −1u, a push or void 0).
  • CLV — how far Hard Rock's de-vigged probability moved toward (+) or away from (−) the pick between the pick and the close, on the same line. Consistently positive CLV is the best early sign a model is beating the market. Backtest picks are priced at the close, so they have no CLV.

Settlement

Overtime counts, shootouts don't, and a player who doesn't play is a void.

Informational only. Not betting advice.

Live Backtest
Record
1558-1512
0 void · 0 pending
Units
+13.40u
ROI
+0.4%
expected +4.6%
Avg CLV
—
no closes yet
DatePlayerGamePickPriceModelBook EVActualResultUnitsCLV
2025-03-10
Frank Nazar
 CHI @ COL OVER 1.5 lean +130 45.6% 40.6% +4.8% 1 L -1.00 —
2025-03-09
Jason Robertson
 DAL @ VAN UNDER 2.5 best +105 52.1% 45.5% +6.9% 1 W +1.05 —
2025-03-09
Alex Ovechkin
 WSH vs SEA UNDER 3.5 best +100 54.5% 46.9% +8.9% 6 L -1.00 —
2025-03-09
Dmitri Voronkov
 CBJ @ NYR OVER 1.5 lean -155 62.5% 56.7% +2.8% 0 L -1.00 —
2025-03-09
Bryan Rust
 PIT @ MIN OVER 2.5 lean +110 48.8% 44.6% +2.5% 1 L -1.00 —
2025-03-08
Tim Stützle
 OTT vs NYR OVER 2.5 best +145 42.9% 38.4% +5.1% 3 W +1.45 —
2025-03-08
Jason Robertson
 DAL @ EDM UNDER 2.5 lean +100 51.6% 46.9% +3.3% 2 W +1.00 —
2025-03-08
Mikael Granlund
 DAL @ EDM OVER 1.5 lean +110 49.4% 44.6% +3.7% 2 W +1.10 —
2025-03-08
Tyler Bertuzzi
 CHI @ NSH OVER 1.5 lean +100 52.5% 46.5% +4.9% 0 L -1.00 —
2025-03-08
Artturi Lehkonen
 COL vs TOR OVER 1.5 lean -180 66.2% 60.2% +3.0% 1 L -1.00 —
2025-03-08
Brock Nelson
 COL vs TOR OVER 2.5 lean +125 46.3% 41.4% +4.1% 0 L -1.00 —
2025-03-08
Jake Guentzel
 TBL vs BOS OVER 2.5 lean +115 48.0% 43.7% +3.1% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-03-08
Owen Tippett
 PHI vs SEA UNDER 2.5 lean +100 51.3% 46.5% +2.7% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-03-08
Brandon Montour
 SEA @ PHI UNDER 2.5 lean -140 59.6% 54.5% +2.1% 5 L -1.00 —
2025-03-08
Alexis Lafrenière
 NYR @ OTT OVER 1.5 lean -125 57.4% 52.0% +3.3% 2 W +0.80 —
2025-03-08
Claude Giroux
 OTT vs NYR OVER 1.5 lean -130 58.1% 53.1% +2.8% 1 L -1.00 —
2025-03-07
Tyler Bertuzzi
 CHI vs UTA OVER 1.5 best +100 53.3% 46.5% +6.5% 3 W +1.00 —
2025-03-07
Alex Ovechkin
 WSH vs DET UNDER 3.5 best +120 51.8% 42.5% +14.0% 1 W +1.20 —
2025-03-07
Marco Rossi
 MIN @ VAN OVER 1.5 lean +110 48.9% 44.3% +2.8% 4 W +1.10 —
2025-03-07
Vinnie Hinostroza
 MIN @ VAN UNDER 1.5 lean -125 57.5% 51.5% +3.5% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-03-07
Dylan Guenther
 UTA @ CHI UNDER 2.5 lean +125 45.8% 41.4% +3.1% 7 L -1.00 —
2025-03-07
Teuvo Teravainen
 CHI vs UTA OVER 1.5 lean +105 50.1% 45.5% +2.7% 0 L -1.00 —
2025-03-07
Dylan Larkin
 DET @ WSH UNDER 2.5 lean +130 44.9% 40.9% +3.4% 1 W +1.30 —
2025-03-06
Macklin Celebrini
 SJS @ COL UNDER 2.5 lean +125 45.4% 41.4% +2.0% 5 L -1.00 —
2025-03-06
Artturi Lehkonen
 COL vs SJS OVER 2.5 lean +125 45.8% 41.7% +3.0% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-03-06
Jason Robertson
 DAL vs CGY UNDER 2.5 lean +115 48.3% 43.7% +3.9% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-03-06
Brandon Montour
 SEA @ NSH UNDER 2.5 lean -120 55.7% 51.0% +2.2% 2 W +0.83 —
2025-03-06
Jared McCann
 SEA @ NSH UNDER 2.5 lean -145 61.1% 55.4% +3.3% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-03-06
Mackie Samoskevich
 FLA vs CBJ UNDER 1.5 lean +140 42.9% 39.1% +3.0% 7 L -1.00 —
2025-03-06
Jake Guentzel
 TBL vs BUF OVER 2.5 lean +115 47.7% 43.7% +2.6% 3 W +1.15 —
2025-03-06
Dylan Guenther
 UTA @ DET UNDER 2.5 lean +110 49.4% 44.6% +3.6% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-03-05
Tyler Bertuzzi
 CHI vs OTT OVER 1.5 best -125 58.4% 52.0% +5.1% 0 L -1.00 —
2025-03-05
Teuvo Teravainen
 CHI vs OTT OVER 1.5 best +105 52.5% 45.9% +7.5% 1 L -1.00 —
2025-03-05
Alex Ovechkin
 WSH @ NYR UNDER 3.5 best -115 56.9% 50.0% +6.4% 5 L -1.00 —
2025-03-05
Frank Nazar
 CHI vs OTT OVER 1.5 lean -105 52.4% 48.0% +2.3% 0 L -1.00 —
2025-03-05
Ryan Donato
 CHI vs OTT OVER 2.5 lean +125 45.8% 41.7% +3.1% 3 W +1.25 —
2025-03-05
Will Cuylle
 NYR vs WSH UNDER 1.5 lean +120 46.6% 42.8% +2.6% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-03-04
Mikael Granlund
 DAL vs NJD OVER 1.5 lean +100 51.5% 46.9% +3.0% 0 L -1.00 —
2025-03-04
Kent Johnson
 CBJ @ TBL OVER 1.5 lean -110 54.2% 49.0% +3.4% 3 W +0.91 —
2025-03-04
Dmitri Voronkov
 CBJ @ TBL OVER 1.5 lean -160 63.0% 57.5% +2.3% 2 W +0.63 —
2025-03-04
Zach Werenski
 CBJ @ TBL OVER 2.5 lean -130 58.2% 52.5% +3.0% 4 W +0.77 —
2025-03-03
Tyler Bertuzzi
 CHI vs LAK OVER 1.5 best -110 55.9% 49.0% +6.7% 2 W +0.91 —
2025-03-03
Juraj Slafkovský
 MTL vs BUF OVER 1.5 best +115 50.7% 43.4% +9.1% 3 W +1.15 —
2025-03-03
Teuvo Teravainen
 CHI vs LAK OVER 1.5 lean +115 48.8% 43.7% +4.9% 2 W +1.15 —
2025-03-03
Phillip Danault
 LAK @ CHI OVER 1.5 lean -105 53.5% 48.0% +4.5% 1 L -1.00 —
2025-03-03
Matthew Knies
 TOR vs SJS OVER 1.5 lean -125 56.8% 52.0% +2.3% 3 W +0.80 —
2025-03-03
Seth Jones
 FLA vs TBL OVER 1.5 lean -130 58.6% 52.5% +3.7% 3 W +0.77 —
2025-03-03
Jake Guentzel
 TBL @ FLA OVER 2.5 lean +135 44.2% 39.8% +3.8% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-03-03
Tim Stützle
 OTT @ WSH OVER 1.5 lean -145 61.0% 55.4% +3.0% 6 W +0.69 —
2025-03-03
Alex Ovechkin
 WSH vs OTT UNDER 3.5 lean -105 52.9% 48.0% +3.2% 5 L -1.00 —
2025-03-02
Jason Robertson
 DAL vs STL UNDER 2.5 best +110 50.1% 44.3% +5.3% 2 W +1.10 —
2025-03-02
K'Andre Miller
 NYR vs NSH UNDER 1.5 lean -115 56.0% 50.0% +4.7% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-03-02
Vinnie Hinostroza
 MIN vs BOS UNDER 1.5 lean +110 49.4% 44.3% +3.7% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-03-01
Alex Ovechkin
 WSH vs TBL UNDER 3.5 best +100 52.8% 46.5% +5.6% 3 W +1.00 —
2025-03-01
Tyler Bertuzzi
 CHI @ ANA OVER 1.5 lean -140 59.6% 54.5% +2.1% 2 W +0.71 —
2025-03-01
Logan Cooley
 UTA vs NJD OVER 1.5 lean -145 61.1% 55.4% +3.2% 2 W +0.69 —
2025-03-01
Tyson Foerster
 PHI @ WPG OVER 1.5 lean +100 51.3% 46.5% +2.7% 1 L -1.00 —
2025-03-01
Tim Stützle
 OTT vs SJS OVER 1.5 lean -195 68.3% 61.8% +3.3% 3 W +0.51 —
2025-03-01
Drake Batherson
 OTT vs SJS OVER 2.5 lean +130 45.3% 40.9% +4.1% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-03-01
Patrik Laine
 MTL @ BUF UNDER 1.5 lean +140 42.6% 39.1% +2.2% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-03-01
Mackie Samoskevich
 FLA vs CGY UNDER 1.5 lean +115 48.7% 43.7% +4.7% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-02-28
Jason Robertson
 DAL vs LAK UNDER 2.5 best +100 52.7% 46.5% +5.3% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-02-28
Vinnie Hinostroza
 MIN @ COL UNDER 1.5 lean -130 58.6% 53.1% +3.6% 1 W +0.77 —
2025-02-28
Mikael Granlund
 DAL vs LAK OVER 1.5 lean +105 49.9% 45.5% +2.4% 2 W +1.05 —
2025-02-28
Will Cuylle
 NYR vs TOR UNDER 1.5 lean +105 49.8% 45.5% +2.0% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-02-28
Artemi Panarin
 NYR vs TOR UNDER 2.5 lean +130 45.4% 40.6% +4.4% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-02-27
Victor Olofsson
 VGK vs CHI UNDER 1.5 best +115 49.0% 43.7% +5.2% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-02-27
Dylan Guenther
 UTA vs MIN UNDER 2.5 best +125 46.8% 41.7% +5.3% 2 W +1.25 —
2025-02-27
Vinnie Hinostroza
 MIN @ UTA UNDER 1.5 best +100 54.3% 46.5% +8.5% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-02-27
Alex Ovechkin
 WSH vs STL UNDER 3.5 best +100 55.0% 46.5% +10.1% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-02-27
Mackie Samoskevich
 FLA vs EDM UNDER 1.5 best +115 49.8% 43.7% +7.2% 1 W +1.15 —
2025-02-27
Tomas Hertl
 VGK vs CHI UNDER 2.5 lean -115 55.2% 50.0% +3.2% 2 W +0.87 —
2025-02-27
Sean Walker
 CAR vs BUF UNDER 1.5 lean +100 52.5% 46.9% +4.9% 1 W +1.00 —
2025-02-27
Brent Burns
 CAR vs BUF UNDER 2.5 lean -150 61.6% 56.3% +2.6% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-02-27
Carter Verhaeghe
 FLA vs EDM UNDER 2.5 lean +125 45.5% 41.7% +2.3% 1 W +1.25 —
2025-02-27
Dylan Larkin
 DET vs CBJ UNDER 3.5 lean -145 61.7% 55.4% +4.2% 1 W +0.69 —
2025-02-25
Mackie Samoskevich
 FLA @ NSH UNDER 1.5 best +130 48.2% 40.9% +10.8% 1 W +1.30 —
2025-02-25
Artemi Panarin
 NYR @ NYI UNDER 2.5 best +130 46.6% 40.6% +7.1% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-02-25
Logan Cooley
 UTA vs CHI OVER 2.5 lean +145 42.7% 38.2% +4.6% 1 L -1.00 —
2025-02-25
Matt Boldy
 MIN vs DET UNDER 3.5 lean -125 56.7% 52.0% +2.1% 3 W +0.80 —
2025-02-25
Sam Bennett
 FLA @ NSH UNDER 3.5 lean -185 66.9% 60.9% +3.1% 3 W +0.54 —
2025-02-25
Aaron Ekblad
 FLA @ NSH UNDER 2.5 lean -190 67.1% 61.1% +2.4% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-02-25
Brandon Montour
 SEA @ STL UNDER 2.5 lean -135 60.3% 53.5% +4.9% 2 W +0.74 —
2025-02-25
Kent Johnson
 CBJ vs DAL OVER 1.5 lean -120 55.7% 50.5% +2.0% 4 W +0.83 —
2025-02-25
Dmitri Voronkov
 CBJ vs DAL OVER 1.5 lean -170 64.3% 59.2% +2.1% 2 W +0.59 —
2025-02-25
Jason Robertson
 DAL @ CBJ UNDER 2.5 lean +105 50.9% 45.5% +4.3% 6 L -1.00 —
2025-02-25
Boone Jenner
 CBJ vs DAL OVER 1.5 lean -175 65.5% 59.4% +2.9% 0 L -1.00 —
2025-02-25
Alex Ovechkin
 WSH vs CGY UNDER 3.5 lean -135 58.7% 53.5% +2.2% 5 L -1.00 —
2025-02-24
Pavel Dorofeyev
 VGK @ LAK UNDER 2.5 lean -115 55.4% 50.0% +3.5% 1 W +0.87 —
2025-02-24
Victor Olofsson
 VGK @ LAK UNDER 1.5 lean -135 59.3% 53.5% +3.3% 1 W +0.74 —
2025-02-24
Macklin Celebrini
 SJS @ WPG UNDER 2.5 lean +135 43.6% 39.8% +2.5% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-02-23
Jason Robertson
 DAL @ NYI UNDER 2.5 best -115 56.2% 50.0% +5.0% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-02-23
Roope Hintz
 DAL @ NYI UNDER 1.5 best +140 43.9% 39.1% +5.3% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-02-23
Jack Hughes
 NJD @ NSH UNDER 3.5 lean -105 52.4% 48.0% +2.3% 8 L -1.00 —
2025-02-23
Dougie Hamilton
 NJD @ NSH UNDER 2.5 lean +100 52.5% 46.5% +5.0% 5 L -1.00 —
2025-02-23
Matty Beniers
 SEA @ TBL OVER 1.5 lean -120 55.9% 51.0% +2.4% 4 W +0.83 —
2025-02-23
Artemi Panarin
 NYR @ PIT UNDER 3.5 lean -175 66.6% 59.4% +4.7% 0 W +0.57 —
2025-02-23
Leon Draisaitl
 EDM @ WSH UNDER 2.5 lean +130 45.1% 40.6% +3.7% 1 W +1.30 —
2025-02-23
Alex Ovechkin
 WSH vs EDM UNDER 3.5 lean -160 63.9% 57.5% +3.9% 9 L -1.00 —
2025-02-22
Pavel Dorofeyev
 VGK vs VAN UNDER 2.5 best +100 53.3% 46.5% +6.6% 5 L -1.00 —
15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23