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SOG Model — Pick History

Today's board · Performance

Pick History

What's listed

Every best bet and lean the shots on goal model made, with the Hard Rock line and price it was made at and how it graded. Live picks are the model's last prediction before puck drop. Backtest picks are a walk-forward simulation of past seasons priced at Hard Rock's closing line, using only information available before each game.

Columns

  • Model / Book — the model's and Hard Rock's (de-vigged) probability for the picked side.
  • EV — expected profit per unit at the price.
  • Units — result of a 1-unit bet (a win at +120 pays +1.20u, a loss is −1u, a push or void 0).
  • CLV — how far Hard Rock's de-vigged probability moved toward (+) or away from (−) the pick between the pick and the close, on the same line. Consistently positive CLV is the best early sign a model is beating the market. Backtest picks are priced at the close, so they have no CLV.

Settlement

Overtime counts, shootouts don't, and a player who doesn't play is a void.

Informational only. Not betting advice.

Live Backtest
Record
1558-1512
0 void · 0 pending
Units
+13.40u
ROI
+0.4%
expected +4.6%
Avg CLV
—
no closes yet
DatePlayerGamePickPriceModelBook EVActualResultUnitsCLV
2026-04-21
Juraj Slafkovský
 MTL @ TBL UNDER 2.5 best +105 51.2% 45.5% +5.0% 2 W +1.05 —
2026-04-21
Dylan Guenther
 UTA @ VGK UNDER 3.5 lean -170 65.2% 59.2% +3.5% 5 L -1.00 —
2026-04-20
Leon Draisaitl
 EDM vs ANA UNDER 2.5 best +120 48.4% 42.8% +6.6% 2 W +1.20 —
2026-04-20
Cutter Gauthier
 ANA @ EDM UNDER 3.5 lean -140 60.6% 54.5% +3.9% 1 W +0.71 —
2026-04-20
Jackson LaCombe
 ANA @ EDM OVER 1.5 lean +115 48.0% 43.7% +3.2% 1 L -1.00 —
2026-04-19
Dylan Guenther
 UTA @ VGK UNDER 3.5 lean -170 65.1% 58.6% +3.4% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-04-19
Juraj Slafkovský
 MTL @ TBL UNDER 2.5 lean -110 54.2% 49.0% +3.5% 7 L -1.00 —
2026-04-19
Cole Caufield
 MTL @ TBL UNDER 3.5 lean -115 55.6% 50.0% +4.0% 2 W +0.87 —
2026-04-18
Kirill Kaprizov
 MIN @ DAL UNDER 3.5 lean -135 59.1% 54.1% +2.8% 2 W +0.74 —
2026-04-16
Colin Miller
 WPG vs SJS UNDER 1.5 best -120 58.6% 51.0% +7.4% 1 W +0.83 —
2026-04-16
Cutter Gauthier
 ANA @ NSH UNDER 3.5 best -130 59.5% 53.1% +5.3% 6 L -1.00 —
2026-04-16
Valeri Nichushkin
 COL vs SEA UNDER 2.5 lean -120 55.8% 51.0% +2.3% 0 W +0.83 —
2026-04-16
Zayne Parekh
 CGY vs LAK UNDER 1.5 lean +125 45.9% 41.4% +3.2% 2 L -1.00 —
2026-04-16
Blake Coleman
 CGY vs LAK UNDER 2.5 lean +130 45.6% 40.9% +5.0% 0 W +1.30 —
2026-04-16
Cole Koepke
 WPG vs SJS UNDER 1.5 lean -125 56.8% 52.0% +2.2% 2 L -1.00 —
2026-04-16
Filip Forsberg
 NSH vs ANA UNDER 3.5 lean -135 58.6% 54.1% +2.0% 6 L -1.00 —
2026-04-15
Fabian Zetterlund
 OTT vs TOR UNDER 1.5 best +140 44.0% 39.1% +5.6% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-04-15
Jordan Spence
 OTT vs TOR UNDER 2.5 lean -145 61.5% 55.4% +4.0% 2 W +0.69 —
2026-04-15
Shane Pinto
 OTT vs TOR UNDER 2.5 lean -120 55.9% 51.0% +2.5% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-04-14
Ben Kindel
 PIT @ STL UNDER 1.5 best +140 45.2% 39.1% +8.4% 1 W +1.40 —
2026-04-14
Noah Cates
 PHI vs MTL UNDER 1.5 best +125 47.5% 41.7% +6.9% 2 L -1.00 —
2026-04-14
Shayne Gostisbehere
 CAR @ NYI UNDER 2.5 best -125 59.3% 52.0% +6.7% 0 W +0.80 —
2026-04-14
Justin Brazeau
 PIT @ STL UNDER 1.5 lean -120 56.2% 51.0% +3.1% 1 W +0.83 —
2026-04-14
Sam Malinski
 COL @ CGY UNDER 2.5 lean -120 57.0% 51.0% +4.6% 2 W +0.83 —
2026-04-14
Cale Makar
 COL @ CGY UNDER 2.5 lean +125 45.8% 41.7% +3.1% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-04-14
Ross Colton
 COL @ CGY UNDER 1.5 lean +130 45.5% 40.9% +4.6% 0 W +1.30 —
2026-04-14
Brent Burns
 COL @ CGY UNDER 2.5 lean -155 62.6% 57.2% +3.0% 0 W +0.65 —
2026-04-14
Cutter Gauthier
 ANA @ MIN UNDER 3.5 lean -155 62.8% 56.7% +3.3% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-04-14
Jackson LaCombe
 ANA @ MIN OVER 1.5 lean +130 44.7% 40.6% +2.8% 3 W +1.30 —
2026-04-14
Vladimir Tarasenko
 MIN vs ANA UNDER 2.5 lean -135 59.7% 53.5% +3.8% 0 W +0.74 —
2026-04-14
Marcus Johansson
 MIN vs ANA UNDER 1.5 lean +105 50.2% 45.9% +3.0% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-04-14
Juraj Slafkovský
 MTL @ PHI UNDER 2.5 lean -140 59.7% 54.5% +2.3% 2 W +0.71 —
2026-04-14
Cole Caufield
 MTL @ PHI UNDER 2.5 lean +120 46.5% 42.2% +2.3% 10 L -1.00 —
2026-04-14
Alexander Nikishin
 CAR @ NYI UNDER 1.5 lean +115 48.1% 43.4% +3.3% 0 W +1.15 —
2026-04-13
Danila Yurov
 MIN @ STL UNDER 1.5 best -120 58.9% 51.0% +8.0% 2 L -1.00 —
2026-04-13
Vladimir Tarasenko
 MIN @ STL UNDER 2.5 lean -170 65.7% 59.2% +4.3% 2 W +0.59 —
2026-04-13
Sean Walker
 CAR @ PHI UNDER 1.5 lean +145 41.9% 38.0% +2.7% 1 W +1.45 —
2026-04-13
Mike Benning
 FLA vs NYR UNDER 1.5 lean -160 62.9% 57.5% +2.2% 1 W +0.63 —
2026-04-13
A.J. Greer
 FLA vs NYR UNDER 1.5 lean +120 46.9% 42.5% +3.1% 1 W +1.20 —
2026-04-12
Fabian Zetterlund
 OTT @ NJD UNDER 1.5 best +135 49.2% 39.8% +15.5% 1 W +1.35 —
2026-04-12
Cutter Gauthier
 ANA vs VAN UNDER 3.5 lean -145 61.1% 55.4% +3.2% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-04-12
Lane Hutson
 MTL @ NYI OVER 1.5 lean +130 44.5% 40.9% +2.4% 0 L -1.00 —
2026-04-12
Cole Hutson
 WSH vs PIT UNDER 1.5 lean +125 46.4% 41.7% +4.3% 0 W +1.25 —
2026-04-12
Rickard Rakell
 PIT @ WSH UNDER 2.5 lean +110 48.7% 44.3% +2.2% 2 W +1.10 —
2026-04-11
Ivan Demidov
 MTL vs CBJ UNDER 1.5 lean +145 42.4% 38.2% +3.9% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-04-11
Cole Caufield
 MTL vs CBJ UNDER 3.5 lean -120 56.0% 51.0% +2.7% 1 W +0.83 —
2026-04-11
Mackie Samoskevich
 FLA @ TOR UNDER 2.5 lean +115 48.2% 43.7% +3.6% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-04-11
A.J. Greer
 FLA @ TOR UNDER 1.5 lean +140 43.7% 39.1% +4.8% 2 L -1.00 —
2026-04-11
Ryan Hartman
 MIN @ NSH UNDER 2.5 lean -110 53.5% 49.0% +2.2% 1 W +0.91 —
2026-04-11
Dylan Larkin
 DET vs NJD UNDER 2.5 lean +130 44.8% 40.6% +3.0% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-04-11
Vasily Podkolzin
 EDM @ LAK UNDER 1.5 lean +130 44.7% 40.6% +2.8% 1 W +1.30 —
2026-04-11
Egor Chinakhov
 PIT vs WSH UNDER 2.5 lean +100 52.0% 46.5% +4.1% 2 W +1.00 —
2026-04-11
Alex Ovechkin
 WSH @ PIT UNDER 2.5 lean +130 44.4% 40.6% +2.1% 7 L -1.00 —
2026-04-09
Shayne Gostisbehere
 CAR @ CHI UNDER 2.5 best -150 63.2% 56.3% +5.4% 2 W +0.67 —
2026-04-09
Jackson Blake
 CAR @ CHI UNDER 2.5 lean -120 56.7% 51.0% +4.0% 0 W +0.83 —
2026-04-09
Logan Stankoven
 CAR @ CHI UNDER 2.5 lean -120 56.3% 51.0% +3.3% 2 W +0.83 —
2026-04-09
Simon Nemec
 NJD vs PIT UNDER 1.5 lean -110 54.1% 49.0% +3.3% 1 W +0.91 —
2026-04-09
Owen Tippett
 PHI @ DET UNDER 2.5 lean +110 48.8% 44.3% +2.5% 0 W +1.10 —
2026-04-09
Jake Sanderson
 OTT vs FLA UNDER 2.5 lean -115 55.4% 50.0% +3.6% 2 W +0.87 —
2026-04-09
Gustav Forsling
 FLA @ OTT UNDER 1.5 lean +100 51.2% 46.9% +2.5% 1 W +1.00 —
2026-04-07
Brent Burns
 COL @ STL UNDER 1.5 best +145 43.0% 38.2% +5.3% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-04-07
Mason McTavish
 ANA vs NSH UNDER 1.5 lean +135 44.4% 39.8% +4.4% 1 W +1.35 —
2026-04-07
Jackson LaCombe
 ANA vs NSH OVER 1.5 lean +110 49.0% 44.3% +3.0% 1 L -1.00 —
2026-04-07
Cole Caufield
 MTL vs FLA UNDER 3.5 lean -120 56.1% 51.0% +2.8% 2 W +0.83 —
2026-04-05
Matthew Tkachuk
 FLA @ PIT UNDER 2.5 best +130 46.1% 40.9% +6.0% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-04-05
Brent Burns
 COL vs STL UNDER 2.5 lean -190 67.6% 61.1% +3.2% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-04-04
Blake Coleman
 CGY @ ANA UNDER 2.5 best +130 46.9% 40.9% +8.0% 1 W +1.30 —
2026-04-04
Brent Burns
 COL @ DAL UNDER 1.5 best +145 44.3% 38.2% +8.6% 2 L -1.00 —
2026-04-04
Matt Savoie
 EDM vs VGK UNDER 2.5 lean -170 64.5% 58.6% +2.4% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-04-04
Shayne Gostisbehere
 CAR vs NYI UNDER 1.5 lean +135 43.6% 39.8% +2.5% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-04-04
Sam Malinski
 COL @ DAL UNDER 1.5 lean +125 45.3% 41.7% +2.0% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-04-03
Matvei Michkov
 PHI @ NYI OVER 1.5 lean -105 52.5% 48.0% +2.4% 3 W +0.95 —
2026-04-02
Alex Ovechkin
 WSH @ NJD UNDER 2.5 best +135 45.3% 39.8% +6.5% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-04-02
Matt Savoie
 EDM vs CHI UNDER 2.5 lean -120 56.7% 51.0% +3.9% 5 L -1.00 —
2026-04-02
Jason Robertson
 DAL vs WPG UNDER 3.5 lean +100 51.9% 46.5% +3.8% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-04-02
Shayne Gostisbehere
 CAR vs CBJ UNDER 2.5 lean -170 65.1% 58.6% +3.5% 1 W +0.59 —
2026-04-01
Sam Malinski
 COL vs VAN UNDER 2.5 best -135 60.8% 53.5% +5.9% 2 W +0.74 —
2026-04-01
Brent Burns
 COL vs VAN UNDER 2.5 best -150 64.4% 56.3% +7.3% 1 W +0.67 —
2026-04-01
Devon Toews
 COL vs VAN UNDER 1.5 lean +115 47.5% 43.4% +2.1% 1 W +1.15 —
2026-03-31
Porter Martone
 PHI @ WSH UNDER 1.5 best +145 43.7% 38.4% +7.0% 5 L -1.00 —
2026-03-31
Timo Meier
 NJD @ NYR UNDER 3.5 best +115 49.7% 42.8% +6.9% 1 W +1.15 —
2026-03-31
Carter Verhaeghe
 FLA vs OTT UNDER 2.5 best +110 50.2% 44.3% +5.4% 6 L -1.00 —
2026-03-31
Cole Perfetti
 WPG @ CHI UNDER 2.5 lean -105 52.7% 48.0% +2.9% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-03-31
Louis Crevier
 CHI vs WPG UNDER 1.5 lean -110 54.0% 49.0% +3.2% 1 W +0.91 —
2026-03-31
Shayne Gostisbehere
 CAR @ CBJ UNDER 2.5 lean -170 66.0% 58.6% +4.8% 2 W +0.59 —
2026-03-31
Alex DeBrincat
 DET @ PIT UNDER 3.5 lean +105 50.3% 45.5% +3.1% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-03-31
Dylan Larkin
 DET @ PIT UNDER 2.5 lean +135 44.0% 39.8% +3.4% 2 W +1.35 —
2026-03-31
Erik Karlsson
 PIT vs DET UNDER 2.5 lean -110 53.5% 49.0% +2.1% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-03-31
Matthew Tkachuk
 FLA vs OTT UNDER 3.5 lean -155 62.4% 56.7% +2.7% 5 L -1.00 —
2026-03-31
Jason Robertson
 DAL @ BOS UNDER 3.5 lean +120 47.1% 42.2% +3.6% 2 W +1.20 —
2026-03-31
Viktor Arvidsson
 BOS vs DAL UNDER 2.5 lean -120 55.7% 51.0% +2.2% 5 L -1.00 —
2026-03-30
Jimmy Snuggerud
 STL @ SJS UNDER 2.5 lean +105 49.8% 45.9% +2.1% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-03-30
Cutter Gauthier
 ANA vs TOR UNDER 3.5 lean +105 49.8% 45.5% +2.0% 1 W +1.05 —
2026-03-30
Brent Burns
 COL vs CGY UNDER 2.5 lean -185 66.8% 60.4% +2.9% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-03-30
Kris Letang
 PIT @ NYI OVER 1.5 lean +130 44.8% 40.9% +3.1% 0 L -1.00 —
2026-03-29
Timo Meier
 NJD vs CHI UNDER 3.5 best +110 51.7% 44.3% +8.6% 9 L -1.00 —
2026-03-29
Shayne Gostisbehere
 CAR vs MTL UNDER 1.5 best +145 43.1% 38.2% +5.7% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-03-29
Matthew Tkachuk
 FLA @ NYR UNDER 3.5 best -120 59.0% 51.0% +8.2% 3 W +0.83 —
2026-03-29
Carter Verhaeghe
 FLA @ NYR UNDER 2.5 best +115 49.2% 43.4% +5.8% 2 W +1.15 —
2026-03-29
Jason Robertson
 DAL @ PHI UNDER 3.5 lean -115 55.6% 50.0% +4.0% 5 L -1.00 —
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