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BUF @ TOR

Thursday, October 15, 2026 · 6:00 PM CT

How the Matchup Page Works

Lines

Before puck drop the page uses Hard Rock Bet's latest moneyline, puck line and total; once the game is final it switches to Hard Rock's closing line so you can see how each bet graded. Hard Rock only — no other sportsbook is shown. Hard Rock doesn't post period totals to our feed, so the period table shows DraftKings and FanDuel lines (labelled DK / FD) and grades at DraftKings' number (FanDuel's if DraftKings has none, 1.5 if neither has posted); the 0.5 / 1.5 / 2.5 chips grade at a fixed line instead. vs DK/FD Close is each team's record against past games' DraftKings (else FanDuel) closing period total.

Betting trends

Each team's hit rate at tonight's number: Season (last season until 5 games are played), L5 / L10, Venue (home games for the home team, road games for the visitor) and H2H (meetings this season and last). vs HR Close is the record against each past game's own Hard Rock closing line (moneyline: in the role — favorite or underdog — the team has tonight). Trends only use games played before this one.

Totals and puck lines are graded on the official final score (overtime counts; the shootout winner gets one goal). Period totals use regulation goals of that period only.

Props, goalies, H2H

Player props lists every Hard Rock line for this game with Season / L10 / H2H over rates at that line; after the game the actual stat is shown. Goalies shows each team's most recent starter as the probable starter (confirmed starters are not published in advance). Head-to-head lists recent meetings with period scores and how the Hard Rock closing total graded.

Informational only. Not betting advice.

Buffalo Sabres
4-4-2 · Away
5 – 4
FINAL / OT
Toronto Maple Leafs
5-4-2 · Home
Hard Rock Lines Hard Rock closing line
Moneyline
BUF +100 · TOR -120
Puck Line
BUF +1.5 (-250) · TOR -1.5 (+180)
Total
O 6.5 (-130) · U (+105)

Graded: total 9 → OVER W · TOR -1.5 L

Betting Trends Season
MarketTeamLineSeasonL5L10VenueH2Hvs HR Close
Game Total
Over 6.5
 BUFo6.5 57%
4-3
40%
2-3
50%
5-5
100%
2-0
75%
3-1
57%
4-3
TORo6.5 57%
4-3
80%
4-1
60%
6-4
25%
1-3
75%
3-1
57%
4-3
Puck Line
cover %
 BUF+1.5 57%
4-3
60%
3-2
70%
7-3
50%
1-1
100%
4-0
-2.46u
2-5
TOR-1.5 14%
1-6
20%
1-4
10%
1-9
0%
0-4
0%
0-4
+0.52u
5-2
Moneyline
win %
 BUF dog +100 43%
3-4
40%
2-3
50%
5-5
0%
0-2
75%
3-1
-2.09u
1-3
TOR fav -120 43%
3-4
40%
2-3
30%
3-7
50%
2-2
25%
1-3
+1.41u
2-0
Period Totals grade at DK/FD line 0.5 1.5 2.5 · Hard Rock posts no period totals — DraftKings / FanDuel shown (closing)
PeriodDK / FDTeamSeasonL5L10VenueH2Hvs DK/FD CloseAvg goalsGF / GA
1st Period
over 1.5 (DraftKings)
 DK 1.5 o-166/u+130 FD 1.5 o-152/u+120 BUF 71%
5-2
60%
3-2
70%
7-3
100%
2-0
100%
4-0
71%
5-2
 2.14 0.86 / 1.29
TOR 71%
5-2
60%
3-2
70%
7-3
75%
3-1
100%
4-0
71%
5-2
 2.14 1.00 / 1.14
2nd Period
over 2.5 (DraftKings)
 DK 2.5 o+145/u-188 FD 2.5 o+144/u-186 BUF 43%
3-4
40%
2-3
40%
4-6
50%
1-1
0%
0-4
100%
7-0
 2.43 0.57 / 1.86
TOR 57%
4-3
80%
4-1
60%
6-4
50%
2-2
0%
0-4
57%
4-3
 3.00 1.43 / 1.57
3rd Period
over 2.5 (DraftKings)
 DK 2.5 o+120/u-154 FD 2.5 o+118/u-150 BUF 0%
0-7
0%
0-5
20%
2-8
0%
0-2
25%
1-3
0%
0-7
 1.57 1.14 / 0.43
TOR 0%
0-7
0%
0-5
20%
2-8
0%
0-4
25%
1-3
0%
0-7
 1.29 0.86 / 0.43
Team Comparison '26-27
BUFTOR
Record (W-L-OTL)4-4-25-4-2
Points %50.0%54.5%
Goals for / game2.803.45
Goals against / game3.703.18
Shots for / game26.927.8
Shots against / game25.730.3
Power play %11.1%27.5%
Penalty kill %66.7%97.4%
Faceoff %47.2%52.4%
1st period GF / GA0.80 / 1.500.91 / 1.09
2nd period GF / GA0.70 / 1.601.55 / 1.18
3rd period GF / GA1.10 / 0.400.91 / 0.73
Avg game total6.506.64
Starting Goalies from the box score
26 saves on 30 shots · 4 GA · W
30 saves on 35 shots · 5 GA · OTL
P1P2P3OTSOGPP
BUF1121350/2
TOR2200301/3
Player Props Hard Rock lines for this game · over rates at each line
BUFPropLineSeasonL10H2HActual
Tage Thompson G 0.5
o+105
 57% 50% 75%3/4 0 U
Josh Norris G 0.5
o+275
 14% 30% 0%0/1 0 U
Ryan McLeod G 0.5
o+350
 14% 30% 0%0/4 0 U
Jack Quinn G 0.5
o+210
 29% 30% 50%2/4 2 O
Sam Carrick G 0.5
o+700
 11% 20% 0%0/2 0 U
Josh Doan G 0.5
o+230
 14% 20% 25%1/4 0 U
Noah Ostlund G 0.5
o+275
 29% 20% 0%0/4 0 U
Mattias Samuelsson G 0.5
o+650
 14% 10% 33%1/3 1 O
Peyton Krebs G 0.5
o+400
 0% 10% 0%0/4 0 U
Louis Crevier G 0.5
o+700
 0% 10% 0%0/2 0 U
Owen Power G 0.5
o+525
 14% 10% 25%1/4 1 O
Olen Zellweger G 0.5
o+600
 17% 10% 0%0/2 0 U
Zach Benson G 0.5
o+240
 0% 10% 0%0/4 0 U
Konsta Helenius G 0.5
o+375
 17% 10% 0%0/1 0 U
Beck Malenstyn G 0.5
o+600
 0% 0% 0%0/4 0 U
Zach Metsa G 0.5
o+900
 0% 0% 0%0/4 0 U
Dennis Gilbert G 0.5
o+1400
 0% — 0%0/2 1 O
Justin Danforth G 0.5
o+650
 0% — — 0 U
Owen Power PTS 0.5
o+100 / u-130
 57% 60% 50%2/4 1 O
Zach Benson PTS 0.5
o-115 / u-115
 43% 60% 50%2/4 2 O
Josh Norris PTS 0.5
o+120 / u-165
 29% 50% 0%0/1 0 U
Tage Thompson PTS 1.5
o+175 / u-240
 43% 40% 75%3/4 1 U
Ryan McLeod PTS 0.5
o+105 / u-140
 29% 40% 100%4/4 0 U
Peyton Krebs PTS 0.5
o+145 / u-200
 43% 40% 50%2/4 0 U
Jack Quinn PTS 0.5
o-130 / u+100
 43% 40% 50%2/4 4 O
Noah Ostlund PTS 0.5
o+100 / u-135
 43% 40% 25%1/4 2 O
Mattias Samuelsson PTS 0.5
o+180 / u-250
 43% 30% 100%3/3 2 O
Josh Doan PTS 0.5
o-105 / u-130
 14% 30% 25%1/4 0 U
Owen Power A 0.5
o+130 / u-175
 57% 60% 25%1/4 0 U
Zach Benson A 0.5
o+170 / u-240
 43% 60% 50%2/4 2 O
Tage Thompson A 0.5
o+110 / u-145
 43% 40% 50%2/4 1 O
Peyton Krebs A 0.5
o+250 / u-375
 43% 30% 50%2/4 0 U
Josh Norris A 0.5
o+250 / u-375
 14% 20% 0%0/1 0 U
Ryan McLeod A 0.5
o+170 / u-240
 14% 20% 100%4/4 0 U
Mattias Samuelsson A 0.5
o+240 / u-350
 29% 20% 67%2/3 1 O
Noah Ostlund A 0.5
o+195 / u-275
 14% 20% 25%1/4 2 O
Jack Quinn A 0.5
o+155 / u-210
 14% 10% 0%0/4 2 O
Josh Doan A 0.5
o+210 / u-300
 0% 10% 0%0/4 0 U
Noah Ostlund SOG 1.5
o-140 / u-120
 86% 70% 25%1/4 1 U
Tage Thompson SOG 3.5
o-135 / u-130
 71% 60% 75%3/4 6 O
Jack Quinn SOG 2.5
o-155 / u-105
 43% 50% 25%1/4 4 O
Josh Doan SOG 1.5
o-195 / u+145
 57% 50% 75%3/4 0 U
Josh Norris SOG 1.5
o-125 / u-105
 29% 40% 100%1/1 0 U
Louis Crevier SOG 1.5
o+110 / u-150
 29% 30% 100%2/2 1 U
Owen Power SOG 1.5
o-110 / u-120
 29% 30% 50%2/4 2 O
Zach Benson SOG 2.5
o+140 / u-190
 14% 30% 25%1/4 4 O
Olen Zellweger SOG 1.5
o-120 / u-110
 33% 20% 0%0/2 6 O
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen SV 25.5
o-115 / u-115
 50% 20% 0%0/2 26 O
TORPropLineSeasonL10H2HActual
William Nylander G 0.5
o+165
 43% 60% 50%1/2 0 U
Auston Matthews G 0.5
o+135
 57% 50% 67%2/3 1 O
John Tavares G 0.5
o+210
 33% 30% 25%1/4 0 U
Jack Roslovic G 0.5
o+275
 43% 30% 100%1/1 0 U
Nick Blankenburg G 0.5
o+750
 13% 30% 0%0/1 0 U
Easton Cowan G 0.5
o+325
 43% 30% 0%0/4 0 U
Kirill Marchenko G 0.5
o+210
 14% 20% 0%0/3 3 O
Colton Sissons G 0.5
o+575
 14% 10% 0%0/2 0 U
Nick Paul G 0.5
o+375
 14% 10% 0%0/1 0 U
Darren Raddysh G 0.5
o+375
 0% 10% 25%1/4 0 U
Oliver Ekman-Larsson G 0.5
o+850
 0% 0% 0%0/4 0 U
Morgan Rielly G 0.5
o+700
 0% 0% 0%0/3 0 U
Teddy Blueger G 0.5
o+475
 0% 0% — 0 U
Jake McCabe G 0.5
o+1100
 0% 0% 0%0/4 0 U
Troy Stecher G 0.5
o+900
 0% 0% 0%0/1 0 U
Brandon Duhaime G 0.5
o+525
 0% 0% 0%0/3 0 U
Zack MacEwen G 0.5
o+550
 0% — — 0 U
Gavin McKenna G 0.5
o+375
 29% — — 0 U
William Nylander PTS 0.5
o-210 / u+155
 71% 80% 100%2/2 0 U
John Tavares PTS 0.5
o-125 / u-105
 67% 70% 75%3/4 2 O
Kirill Marchenko PTS 0.5
o-130 / u+100
 86% 70% 33%1/3 3 O
Auston Matthews PTS 0.5
o-230 / u+170
 71% 60% 100%3/3 1 O
Easton Cowan PTS 0.5
o+155 / u-210
 57% 60% 50%2/4 1 O
Morgan Rielly PTS 0.5
o+150 / u-200
 57% 40% 0%0/3 0 U
Darren Raddysh PTS 0.5
o-120 / u-110
 43% 40% 100%4/4 1 O
Jack Roslovic PTS 0.5
o+120 / u-160
 57% 40% 100%1/1 1 O
Nick Paul PTS 0.5
o+180 / u-250
 43% 30% 0%0/1 0 U
Gavin McKenna PTS 0.5
o+100 / u-185
 57% — — 0 U
Kirill Marchenko A 0.5
o+160 / u-220
 71% 60% 33%1/3 0 U
John Tavares A 0.5
o+175 / u-240
 50% 50% 75%3/4 2 O
William Nylander A 0.5
o+105 / u-135
 57% 50% 50%1/2 0 U
Morgan Rielly A 0.5
o+195 / u-275
 57% 40% 0%0/3 0 U
Auston Matthews A 0.5
o+105 / u-135
 57% 40% 67%2/3 0 U
Easton Cowan A 0.5
o+325 / u-500
 29% 40% 50%2/4 1 O
Darren Raddysh A 0.5
o+125 / u-165
 43% 30% 100%4/4 1 O
Nick Paul A 0.5
o+350 / u-550
 29% 20% 0%0/1 0 U
Jack Roslovic A 0.5
o+240 / u-350
 29% 20% 0%0/1 1 O
Gavin McKenna A 0.5
o+240 / u-350
 43% — — 0 U
Jack Roslovic SOG 1.5
o-175 / u+130
 100% 90% 0%0/1 5 O
William Nylander SOG 2.5
o-105 / u-125
 57% 70% 0%0/2 5 O
Kirill Marchenko SOG 2.5
o-105 / u-140
 57% 70% 33%1/3 3 O
Darren Raddysh SOG 2.5
o-110 / u-120
 43% 60% 100%4/4 3 O
Easton Cowan SOG 1.5
o+105 / u-140
 71% 60% 0%0/4 2 O
John Tavares SOG 2.5
o+145 / u-200
 67% 50% 50%2/4 0 U
Nick Paul SOG 1.5
o+120 / u-160
 43% 50% 100%1/1 1 U
Auston Matthews SOG 3.5
o-105 / u-135
 57% 50% 33%1/3 1 U
Gavin McKenna SOG 1.5
o+100 / u-170
 43% — — 1 U
Sergei Bobrovsky SV 25.5
o-105 / u-130
 31% 40% 33%1/3 30 O

Open in Prop Finder →

Head-to-Head last 10 meetings
DateWhereScoreP1P2P3TotalHR CloseWinner
Mar 14, 2026 at BUF TOR 2–3 SO 1–11–10–0 5 6.5 U BUF
Jan 27, 2026 at TOR TOR 4–7 2–31–11–3 11 6.5 O BUF
Oct 25, 2025 at TOR TOR 4–3 OT 1–11–11–1 7 6.5 O TOR
Oct 24, 2025 at BUF TOR 3–5 2–20–21–1 8 6.5 O BUF
Apr 15, 2025 at BUF TOR 4–0 0–01–03–0 4 6.5 U TOR
Dec 20, 2024 at BUF TOR 6–3 2–03–21–1 9 6 O TOR
Dec 15, 2024 at TOR TOR 5–3 1–23–11–0 8 6 O TOR
Mar 30, 2024 at BUF TOR 3–0 1–01–01–0 3 — TOR
Mar 6, 2024 at TOR TOR 2–1 OT 0–01–10–0 3 — TOR
Dec 21, 2023 at BUF TOR 3–9 2–31–30–3 12 — BUF