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← Models / Points Model — Pick History

Points Model — Pick History

Today's board · Performance

Pick History

What's listed

Every over/under pick the points model made, at the Hard Rock line closest to even money, and how it graded. Live picks are the model's last prediction before puck drop. Backtest picks replay past seasons at Hard Rock's closing line, using only information from before each game.

Columns

  • Conf — the model's probability that the pick wins. Book — Hard Rock's de-vigged probability of the same side.
  • Units — result of a flat 1-unit bet at the listed price.

Tiers

Top, strong and lean are confidence bands; a toss-up is a player the model has almost no opinion on. The default view hides toss-ups.

Settlement

Overtime counts, shootouts don't, and a player who doesn't play is a void.

Informational only. Not betting advice.

Live Backtest
Record
20667-12503
0 void · 0 pending
Accuracy
62.3%
expected 62.2%
Book favorite, same picks
62.3%
always taking Hard Rock's favored side
Units
-1,634.44u
ROI -4.9% · flat 1u
DatePlayerGamePickTierPriceConfBook PointsResultUnits
2026-11-03
Ross Colton
 NSH vs CAR UNDER 0.5 Strong -200 64.9% 62.0% 2 L -1.00
2026-11-03
Mitch Marner
 VGK @ PIT OVER 0.5 Strong -210 64.9% 63.3% 1 W +0.48
2026-11-03
Erik Karlsson
 PIT vs VGK OVER 0.5 Strong -200 64.8% 62.5% 0 L -1.00
2026-11-03
Lawson Crouse
 UTA @ TOR UNDER 0.5 Strong -230 64.8% 65.3% 0 W +0.44
2026-11-03
Jason Robertson
 DAL @ WSH OVER 0.5 Strong -210 64.7% 63.3% 4 W +0.48
2026-11-03
Ivan Provorov
 CBJ vs COL UNDER 0.5 Strong -260 64.7% 67.7% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-03
Oliver Bjorkstrand
 NYR vs STL UNDER 0.5 Strong -230 64.7% 65.3% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-03
Nick Paul
 TOR vs UTA UNDER 0.5 Strong -220 64.7% 64.1% 0 W +0.46
2026-11-03
Mark Scheifele
 WPG @ MTL OVER 0.5 Strong -220 64.7% 64.1% 2 W +0.46
2026-11-03
Denver Barkey
 PHI vs MIN UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 64.6% 63.3% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-03
Kyle Connor
 WPG @ MTL OVER 0.5 Strong -260 64.5% 63.9% 2 W +0.39
2026-11-03
Cutter Gauthier
 ANA @ VAN OVER 0.5 Strong -200 64.5% 62.5% 3 W +0.50
2026-11-03
Mavrik Bourque
 NSH vs CAR UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 64.4% 63.8% 0 W +0.48
2026-11-03
Alexandre Texier
 MTL vs WPG UNDER 0.5 Strong -240 64.4% 66.0% 0 W +0.42
2026-11-03
Brandon Hagel
 TBL vs DET UNDER 1.5 Strong -220 64.4% 64.1% 0 W +0.46
2026-11-03
Jamie Benn
 DAL @ WSH UNDER 0.5 Strong -200 64.3% 62.5% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-03
Danila Yurov
 MIN @ PHI UNDER 0.5 Strong -230 64.1% 65.3% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-03
Jake Guentzel
 TBL vs DET UNDER 1.5 Strong -200 64.0% 62.5% 0 W +0.50
2026-11-03
Tyler Seguin
 DAL @ WSH UNDER 0.5 Strong -220 63.7% 64.1% 0 W +0.46
2026-11-03
Tye Kartye
 NYR vs STL UNDER 0.5 Strong -200 63.6% 62.5% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-03
Jordan Martinook
 CAR @ NSH UNDER 0.5 Strong -200 63.4% 62.5% 0 W +0.50
2026-11-03
Jamie Drysdale
 PHI vs MIN UNDER 0.5 Strong -190 63.4% 61.1% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-03
Bobby Brink
 MIN @ PHI UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 63.3% 62.9% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-03
Thomas Harley
 DAL @ WSH UNDER 0.5 Strong -200 63.1% 62.5% 2 L -1.00
2026-11-03
Porter Martone
 PHI vs MIN UNDER 0.5 Strong -195 63.0% 61.8% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-03
Jaden Schwartz
 COL @ CBJ UNDER 0.5 Strong -190 63.0% 61.1% 0 W +0.53
2026-11-03
Zach Werenski
 CBJ vs COL OVER 0.5 Strong -175 63.0% 59.4% 2 W +0.57
2026-11-03
Cole Hutson
 WSH vs DAL UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 62.9% 62.9% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-03
Logan Cooley
 UTA @ TOR OVER 0.5 Strong -185 62.9% 60.4% 0 L -1.00
2026-11-03
Evan Rodrigues
 NJD vs EDM UNDER 0.5 Strong -240 62.8% 66.0% 0 W +0.42
2026-11-03
Juraj Slafkovský
 MTL vs WPG OVER 0.5 Strong -210 62.7% 63.3% 2 W +0.48
2026-11-03
Jake Evans
 MTL vs WPG UNDER 0.5 Strong -185 62.7% 60.4% 0 W +0.54
2026-11-03
T.J. Hughes
 COL @ CBJ UNDER 0.5 Strong -200 62.6% 62.5% 0 W +0.50
2026-11-03
Lane Hutson
 MTL vs WPG OVER 0.5 Strong -195 62.5% 61.8% 1 W +0.51
2026-11-03
Andrei Kuzmenko
 PIT vs VGK UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 62.5% 63.8% 0 W +0.48
2026-11-03
Shea Theodore
 VGK @ PIT UNDER 0.5 Strong -225 62.4% 63.8% 0 W +0.44
2026-11-03
Jack Hughes
 NJD vs EDM UNDER 1.5 Strong -200 62.4% 62.0% 3 L -1.00
2026-11-03
Kirill Kaprizov
 MIN @ PHI UNDER 1.5 Strong -170 62.4% 58.6% 1 W +0.59
2026-11-03
Owen Tippett
 PHI vs MIN UNDER 0.5 Strong -185 62.3% 60.4% 0 W +0.54
2026-11-03
Linus Karlsson
 VAN vs ANA UNDER 0.5 Strong -230 62.2% 65.3% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-03
Christian Dvorak
 PHI vs MIN UNDER 0.5 Strong -185 62.2% 60.9% 0 W +0.54
2026-11-03
Aliaksei Protas
 WSH vs DAL UNDER 0.5 Strong -195 62.1% 61.8% 0 W +0.51
2026-11-03
Michael Carcone
 UTA @ TOR UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 62.0% 63.3% 0 W +0.48
2026-11-03
Emmitt Finnie
 DET @ TBL UNDER 0.5 Strong -155 61.9% 56.7% 0 W +0.65
2026-11-03
Jackson LaCombe
 ANA @ VAN OVER 0.5 Strong -175 61.9% 59.4% 2 W +0.57
2026-11-03
Beckett Sennecke
 ANA @ VAN OVER 0.5 Strong -190 61.8% 61.1% 4 W +0.53
2026-11-03
Tyson Foerster
 PHI vs MIN UNDER 0.5 Strong -185 61.7% 60.9% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-03
Ville Koivunen
 PIT vs VGK UNDER 0.5 Strong -185 61.7% 60.9% 0 W +0.54
2026-11-03
Kris Letang
 PIT vs VGK UNDER 0.5 Strong -200 61.6% 62.5% 0 W +0.50
2026-11-03
Josh Anderson
 MTL vs WPG UNDER 0.5 Strong -200 61.6% 62.5% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-03
Sean Monahan
 CBJ vs COL UNDER 0.5 Strong -250 61.5% 66.7% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-03
Dylan Guenther
 UTA @ TOR OVER 0.5 Strong -170 61.5% 59.2% 1 W +0.59
2026-11-03
Devon Toews
 COL @ CBJ UNDER 0.5 Strong -180 61.4% 60.2% 0 W +0.56
2026-11-03
Leon Draisaitl
 EDM @ NJD UNDER 1.5 Strong -190 61.4% 59.6% 1 W +0.53
2026-11-03
Phillip Danault
 MTL vs WPG UNDER 0.5 Strong -190 61.1% 61.1% 0 W +0.53
2026-11-03
Jesper Bratt
 NJD vs EDM OVER 0.5 Strong -175 61.0% 59.4% 1 W +0.57
2026-11-03
Connor McMichael
 STL @ NYR UNDER 0.5 Strong -185 61.0% 60.9% 0 W +0.54
2026-11-03
Martin Necas
 COL @ CBJ OVER 0.5 Strong -190 61.0% 61.1% 0 L -1.00
2026-11-03
Ryan Leonard
 WSH vs DAL UNDER 0.5 Lean -195 60.6% 61.8% 2 L -1.00
2026-11-03
Filip Forsberg
 NSH vs CAR OVER 0.5 Lean -175 60.6% 57.8% 2 W +0.57
2026-11-03
Anthony Mantha
 NJD vs EDM UNDER 0.5 Lean -195 60.5% 61.8% 0 W +0.51
2026-11-03
Will Cuylle
 NYR vs STL UNDER 0.5 Lean -180 60.5% 60.2% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-03
Brock Nelson
 COL @ CBJ UNDER 0.5 Lean -170 60.5% 58.6% 0 W +0.59
2026-11-03
Robert Thomas
 STL @ NYR OVER 0.5 Lean -180 60.5% 60.2% 0 L -1.00
2026-11-03
Andrei Svechnikov
 CAR @ NSH OVER 0.5 Lean -170 60.5% 59.2% 0 L -1.00
2026-11-03
Mikhail Sergachev
 UTA @ TOR OVER 0.5 Lean -165 60.5% 57.8% 2 W +0.61
2026-11-03
Joel Eriksson Ek
 MIN @ PHI OVER 0.5 Lean -185 60.4% 60.4% 1 W +0.54
2026-11-03
Mark Stone
 VGK @ PIT OVER 0.5 Lean -180 60.4% 60.2% 1 W +0.56
2026-11-03
Nico Hischier
 NJD vs EDM OVER 0.5 Lean -165 60.3% 58.4% 1 W +0.61
2026-11-03
Tristan Luneau
 ANA @ VAN UNDER 0.5 Lean -195 60.1% 61.8% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-03
Adam Fantilli
 CBJ vs COL OVER 0.5 Lean -165 60.1% 58.4% 0 L -1.00
2026-11-03
Mika Zibanejad
 NYR vs STL OVER 0.5 Lean -165 60.1% 58.4% 0 L -1.00
2026-11-03
Blake Coleman
 MIN @ PHI UNDER 0.5 Lean -175 60.0% 59.4% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-03
Kasperi Kapanen
 EDM @ NJD UNDER 0.5 Lean -170 60.0% 59.2% 2 L -1.00
2026-11-03
Chris Kreider
 MTL vs WPG UNDER 0.5 Lean -175 59.9% 59.4% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-03
Nikolaj Ehlers
 CAR @ NSH OVER 0.5 Lean -180 59.8% 58.6% 0 L -1.00
2026-11-03
Alex Ovechkin
 WSH vs DAL UNDER 0.5 Lean -175 59.8% 59.4% 0 W +0.57
2026-11-03
Jake Neighbours
 STL @ NYR UNDER 0.5 Lean -175 59.7% 59.4% 0 W +0.57
2026-11-03
Pontus Holmberg
 TBL vs DET UNDER 0.5 Lean -210 59.7% 63.3% 0 W +0.48
2026-11-03
Gabriel Landeskog
 COL @ CBJ UNDER 0.5 Lean -170 59.7% 58.6% 0 W +0.59
2026-11-03
Adam Fox
 NYR vs STL OVER 0.5 Lean -165 59.6% 58.4% 2 W +0.61
2026-11-03
Connor Brown
 NJD vs EDM UNDER 0.5 Lean -185 59.6% 58.8% 2 L -1.00
2026-11-03
Jackson Blake
 CAR @ NSH OVER 0.5 Lean -170 59.6% 58.6% 1 W +0.59
2026-11-03
Wyatt Johnston
 DAL @ WSH OVER 0.5 Lean -165 59.4% 58.4% 2 W +0.61
2026-11-03
Gavin McKenna
 TOR vs UTA UNDER 0.5 Lean -180 59.3% 60.2% 0 W +0.56
2026-11-03
Mikael Granlund
 ANA @ VAN OVER 0.5 Lean -160 59.2% 57.5% 3 W +0.63
2026-11-03
Pavel Buchnevich
 STL @ NYR UNDER 0.5 Lean -165 59.1% 58.4% 0 W +0.61
2026-11-03
Rickard Rakell
 PIT vs VGK OVER 0.5 Lean -155 58.9% 56.7% 1 W +0.65
2026-11-03
Cale Makar
 COL @ CBJ OVER 0.5 Lean -175 58.5% 59.4% 2 W +0.57
2026-11-03
Dougie Hamilton
 NJD vs EDM UNDER 0.5 Lean -175 58.5% 59.4% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-03
Nick Schmaltz
 UTA @ TOR OVER 0.5 Lean -140 58.3% 54.5% 1 W +0.71
2026-11-03
Neal Pionk
 WPG @ MTL UNDER 0.5 Lean -155 58.3% 57.2% 0 W +0.65
2026-11-03
MacKenzie Weegar
 UTA @ TOR UNDER 0.5 Lean -170 57.8% 58.6% 0 W +0.59
2026-11-03
Egor Chinakhov
 PIT vs VGK UNDER 0.5 Lean -170 57.8% 59.2% 0 W +0.59
2026-11-03
Philip Broberg
 STL @ NYR UNDER 0.5 Lean -160 57.7% 57.5% 0 W +0.63
2026-11-03
Elias Pettersson
 VAN vs ANA OVER 0.5 Lean -165 57.6% 57.8% 2 W +0.61
2026-11-03
Trevor Connelly
 VGK @ PIT UNDER 0.5 Lean -145 57.4% 55.4% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-03
Marco Rossi
 VAN vs ANA UNDER 0.5 Lean -165 57.3% 57.8% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-03
Brett Howden
 VGK @ PIT UNDER 0.5 Lean -140 57.2% 54.5% 0 W +0.71
2026-11-03
Judd Caulfield
 ANA @ VAN UNDER 0.5 Lean -175 57.2% 59.4% 0 W +0.57
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