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6:30 PM
EDM -140 15-3-3
PHI 5.5 6-10-6
7:00 PM
FLA 5.5 12-7-2
DAL -130 11-6-2
7:00 PM
CGY 6.5 9-10-1
ANA -150 10-9-1
8:00 PM
VAN 6.5 3-17-1
VGK -450 13-5-3
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NSH -170 11-4-5
SJS 6.5 9-11-2
← Models / Points Model — Pick History

Points Model — Pick History

Today's board · Performance

Pick History

What's listed

Every over/under pick the points model made, at the Hard Rock line closest to even money, and how it graded. Live picks are the model's last prediction before puck drop. Backtest picks replay past seasons at Hard Rock's closing line, using only information from before each game.

Columns

  • Conf — the model's probability that the pick wins. Book — Hard Rock's de-vigged probability of the same side.
  • Units — result of a flat 1-unit bet at the listed price.

Tiers

Top, strong and lean are confidence bands; a toss-up is a player the model has almost no opinion on. The default view hides toss-ups.

Settlement

Overtime counts, shootouts don't, and a player who doesn't play is a void.

Informational only. Not betting advice.

Live Backtest
Record
20667-12503
0 void · 0 pending
Accuracy
62.3%
expected 62.2%
Book favorite, same picks
62.3%
always taking Hard Rock's favored side
Units
-1,634.44u
ROI -4.9% · flat 1u
DatePlayerGamePickTierPriceConfBook PointsResultUnits
2026-10-31
Tyler Bertuzzi
 CHI @ BOS UNDER 0.5 Lean -185 61.0% 60.4% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-31
Marco Rossi
 VAN vs TOR UNDER 0.5 Lean -190 60.9% 61.1% 0 W +0.53
2026-10-31
Stephen Halliday
 OTT @ SJS UNDER 0.5 Lean -180 60.9% 60.2% 0 W +0.56
2026-10-31
Rasmus Dahlin
 BUF @ LAK OVER 0.5 Lean -185 60.9% 60.4% 2 W +0.54
2026-10-31
Nazem Kadri
 COL vs CGY OVER 0.5 Lean -175 60.8% 57.2% 1 W +0.57
2026-10-31
Joel Farabee
 CGY @ COL UNDER 0.5 Lean -165 60.7% 57.8% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-31
Emil Heineman
 NYI vs EDM UNDER 0.5 Lean -170 60.5% 59.2% 0 W +0.59
2026-10-31
Tyler Toffoli
 SJS vs OTT UNDER 0.5 Lean -180 60.5% 60.2% 0 W +0.56
2026-10-31
Morgan Rielly
 TOR @ VAN UNDER 0.5 Lean -195 60.5% 61.8% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-31
Charlie McAvoy
 BOS vs CHI OVER 0.5 Lean -165 60.2% 58.4% 2 W +0.61
2026-10-31
Nikita Kucherov
 TBL @ NSH UNDER 1.5 Lean -190 60.1% 61.6% 3 L -1.00
2026-10-31
Kasperi Kapanen
 EDM @ NYI UNDER 0.5 Lean -160 60.0% 57.5% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-31
Trevor Moore
 LAK vs BUF UNDER 0.5 Lean -170 60.0% 59.2% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-31
Dmitry Orlov
 SJS vs OTT UNDER 0.5 Lean -165 59.9% 58.4% 0 W +0.61
2026-10-31
Josh Doan
 BUF @ LAK UNDER 0.5 Lean -170 59.8% 59.2% 0 W +0.59
2026-10-31
Roman Kantserov
 CHI @ BOS UNDER 0.5 Lean -165 59.7% 57.8% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-31
Pavel Buchnevich
 STL @ DET UNDER 0.5 Lean -170 59.6% 59.2% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-31
Sidney Crosby
 PIT @ MTL OVER 0.5 Lean -160 59.5% 57.5% 3 W +0.63
2026-10-31
Leon Draisaitl
 EDM @ NYI UNDER 1.5 Lean -160 59.4% 57.5% 2 L -1.00
2026-10-31
Robert Thomas
 STL @ DET OVER 0.5 Lean -175 59.3% 59.4% 1 W +0.57
2026-10-31
Egor Chinakhov
 PIT @ MTL UNDER 0.5 Lean -175 59.3% 59.4% 0 W +0.57
2026-10-31
Kent Johnson
 CBJ @ DAL UNDER 0.5 Lean -160 59.3% 57.5% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-31
Lucas Raymond
 DET vs STL OVER 0.5 Lean -170 59.1% 58.6% 2 W +0.59
2026-10-31
Drake Batherson
 OTT @ SJS OVER 0.5 Lean -155 59.1% 56.7% 1 W +0.65
2026-10-31
Auston Matthews
 TOR @ VAN UNDER 1.5 Lean -155 59.0% 56.7% 1 W +0.65
2026-10-31
Gavin McKenna
 TOR @ VAN OVER 0.5 Lean -175 58.8% 59.4% 0 L -1.00
2026-10-31
Martin Necas
 COL vs CGY UNDER 1.5 Lean -180 58.6% 59.7% 2 L -1.00
2026-10-31
Artturi Lehkonen
 COL vs CGY OVER 0.5 Lean -140 58.5% 54.5% 2 W +0.71
2026-10-31
Pontus Holmberg
 TBL @ NSH UNDER 0.5 Lean -185 58.2% 58.8% 0 W +0.54
2026-10-31
Ben Kindel
 PIT @ MTL UNDER 0.5 Lean -165 58.1% 58.4% 0 W +0.61
2026-10-31
Nick Paul
 TOR @ VAN UNDER 0.5 Lean -160 58.1% 57.5% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-31
Kiefer Sherwood
 SJS vs OTT UNDER 0.5 Lean -165 58.1% 57.8% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-31
Charlie Coyle
 CBJ @ DAL UNDER 0.5 Lean -150 58.0% 56.3% 0 W +0.67
2026-10-31
John Carlson
 TBL @ NSH UNDER 0.5 Lean -175 58.0% 59.4% 2 L -1.00
2026-10-31
Matthew Knies
 CBJ @ DAL UNDER 0.5 Lean -160 58.0% 55.8% 0 W +0.63
2026-10-31
Filip Forsberg
 NSH vs TBL OVER 0.5 Lean -155 57.9% 56.7% 2 W +0.65
2026-10-31
Darren Raddysh
 TOR @ VAN OVER 0.5 Lean -150 57.9% 56.3% 1 W +0.67
2026-10-31
Fabian Zetterlund
 OTT @ SJS UNDER 0.5 Lean -165 57.9% 57.8% 0 W +0.61
2026-10-31
Elias Pettersson
 VAN vs TOR OVER 0.5 Lean -165 57.5% 58.4% 0 L -1.00
2026-10-31
Viktor Arvidsson
 DET vs STL OVER 0.5 Lean -160 57.5% 57.5% 0 L -1.00
2026-10-31
Matt Coronato
 CGY @ COL UNDER 0.5 Lean -140 57.4% 54.5% 0 W +0.71
2026-10-31
Roope Hintz
 DAL vs CBJ OVER 0.5 Lean -155 57.2% 56.7% 0 L -1.00
2026-10-31
Will Smith
 SJS vs OTT OVER 0.5 Lean -145 57.0% 55.4% 0 L -1.00
2026-10-31
Jonathan Marchessault
 NSH vs TBL UNDER 0.5 Lean -150 56.8% 56.3% 0 W +0.67
2026-10-31
Jake Neighbours
 STL @ DET UNDER 0.5 Lean -135 56.7% 54.1% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-31
Philip Broberg
 STL @ DET UNDER 0.5 Lean -145 56.6% 55.4% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-31
Jake Sanderson
 OTT @ SJS OVER 0.5 Lean -140 56.6% 54.5% 2 W +0.71
2026-10-31
James Hagens
 BOS vs CHI UNDER 0.5 Lean -165 56.6% 58.4% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-31
Jack Quinn
 BUF @ LAK OVER 0.5 Lean -155 56.3% 56.7% 2 W +0.65
2026-10-31
Thomas Harley
 DAL vs CBJ UNDER 0.5 Lean -140 56.3% 54.5% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-31
David Pastrnak
 BOS vs CHI UNDER 1.5 Lean -175 56.0% 53.9% 1 W +0.57
2026-10-31
Thomas Chabot
 OTT @ SJS UNDER 0.5 Lean -160 56.0% 57.5% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-30
Elias Salomonsson
 WPG @ FLA UNDER 0.5 Top -200 70.4% 62.5% 0 W +0.50
2026-10-30
Brady Tkachuk
 FLA vs WPG OVER 0.5 Top -240 67.7% 66.4% 0 L -1.00
2026-10-30
Jack Hughes
 NJD @ VGK OVER 0.5 Top -240 67.0% 66.0% 2 W +0.42
2026-10-30
Jack Eichel
 VGK vs NJD UNDER 1.5 Top -210 66.7% 63.3% 0 W +0.48
2026-10-30
Dawson Mercer
 WPG @ FLA UNDER 0.5 Top -190 66.6% 61.6% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-30
Sam Reinhart
 FLA vs WPG OVER 0.5 Top -220 66.5% 64.1% 2 W +0.46
2026-10-30
Mitch Marner
 VGK vs NJD OVER 0.5 Top -240 66.2% 66.0% 2 W +0.42
2026-10-30
Anthony Mantha
 NJD @ VGK UNDER 0.5 Top -230 66.1% 65.3% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-30
Gustav Forsling
 FLA vs WPG UNDER 0.5 Top -240 66.0% 66.0% 0 W +0.42
2026-10-30
Neal Pionk
 WPG @ FLA UNDER 0.5 Strong -200 65.2% 62.5% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-30
Evan Rodrigues
 NJD @ VGK UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 64.8% 63.3% 0 W +0.48
2026-10-30
Lars Eller
 FLA vs WPG UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 64.4% 63.3% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-30
Simon Nemec
 CGY vs SEA UNDER 0.5 Strong -225 63.7% 64.7% 0 W +0.44
2026-10-30
Aydar Suniev
 CGY vs SEA UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 63.7% 63.8% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-30
Dougie Hamilton
 NJD @ VGK UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 63.6% 63.3% 0 W +0.48
2026-10-30
Brett Howden
 VGK vs NJD UNDER 0.5 Strong -195 63.3% 61.8% 0 W +0.51
2026-10-30
Matthew Tkachuk
 FLA vs WPG UNDER 1.5 Strong -175 63.1% 59.4% 0 W +0.57
2026-10-30
Mark Stone
 VGK vs NJD OVER 0.5 Strong -190 61.7% 61.1% 1 W +0.53
2026-10-30
Aaron Ekblad
 FLA vs WPG UNDER 0.5 Strong -195 61.5% 61.8% 0 W +0.51
2026-10-30
Seth Jones
 FLA vs WPG OVER 0.5 Strong -175 61.0% 59.4% 3 W +0.57
2026-10-30
Carter Verhaeghe
 FLA vs WPG OVER 0.5 Lean -165 60.6% 58.4% 1 W +0.61
2026-10-30
Zayne Parekh
 CGY vs SEA UNDER 0.5 Lean -180 60.6% 60.2% 0 W +0.56
2026-10-30
Arseny Gritsyuk
 NJD @ VGK UNDER 0.5 Lean -175 60.4% 59.4% 2 L -1.00
2026-10-30
Yegor Sharangovich
 CGY vs SEA UNDER 0.5 Lean -200 60.2% 59.5% 0 W +0.50
2026-10-30
Kyle Connor
 WPG @ FLA OVER 0.5 Lean -200 59.8% 62.5% 1 W +0.50
2026-10-30
Eetu Luostarinen
 FLA vs WPG UNDER 0.5 Lean -180 59.7% 60.2% 2 L -1.00
2026-10-30
Ryan Strome
 CGY vs SEA UNDER 0.5 Lean -185 59.5% 60.9% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-30
Mark Scheifele
 WPG @ FLA OVER 0.5 Lean -195 58.9% 61.8% 1 W +0.51
2026-10-30
William Karlsson
 VGK vs NJD UNDER 0.5 Lean -180 58.5% 58.0% 0 W +0.56
2026-10-30
Trevor Connelly
 VGK vs NJD UNDER 0.5 Lean -155 58.0% 57.2% 0 W +0.65
2026-10-30
Mikael Backlund
 CGY vs SEA UNDER 0.5 Lean -165 57.9% 58.4% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-30
Shea Theodore
 VGK vs NJD UNDER 0.5 Lean -180 57.6% 56.9% 0 W +0.56
2026-10-30
Timo Meier
 NJD @ VGK UNDER 0.5 Lean -135 56.4% 53.5% 0 W +0.74
2026-10-30
Matt Coronato
 CGY vs SEA OVER 0.5 Lean -150 56.3% 55.8% 4 W +0.67
2026-10-30
Sam Bennett
 FLA vs WPG OVER 0.5 Lean -145 56.3% 55.4% 0 L -1.00
2026-10-30
Luke Hughes
 NJD @ VGK UNDER 0.5 Lean -145 56.3% 55.4% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-29
Jake Evans
 MTL @ DAL UNDER 0.5 Top -375 72.9% 74.0% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-29
Tim Washe
 ANA vs BUF UNDER 0.5 Top -350 71.4% 72.6% 0 W +0.29
2026-10-29
Taylor Ward
 LAK vs OTT UNDER 0.5 Top -250 71.2% 66.7% 0 W +0.40
2026-10-29
Damon Severson
 CBJ @ CAR UNDER 0.5 Top -260 70.6% 67.7% 0 W +0.39
2026-10-29
Sebastian Aho
 CAR vs CBJ UNDER 1.5 Top -230 70.5% 65.3% 0 W +0.44
2026-10-29
Quinn Hughes
 MIN vs NYI UNDER 1.5 Top -260 70.4% 67.3% 2 L -1.00
2026-10-29
Kirby Dach
 MTL @ DAL UNDER 0.5 Top -240 70.0% 65.6% 0 W +0.42
2026-10-29
Josh Anderson
 MTL @ DAL UNDER 0.5 Top -300 69.7% 70.6% 0 W +0.33
2026-10-29
Oliver Kapanen
 MTL @ DAL UNDER 0.5 Top -250 69.6% 66.7% 0 W +0.40
2026-10-29
Noah Dobson
 MTL @ DAL UNDER 0.5 Top -300 69.3% 69.9% 2 L -1.00
2026-10-29
Matt Boldy
 MIN vs NYI UNDER 1.5 Top -225 68.8% 64.7% 1 W +0.44
2026-10-29
Filip Bystedt
 SJS vs VAN UNDER 0.5 Top -220 68.6% 64.1% 0 W +0.46
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