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PHI 5.5 6-10-6
7:00 PM
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DAL -130 11-6-2
7:00 PM
CGY 6.5 9-10-1
ANA -150 10-9-1
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← Models / Points Model — Pick History

Points Model — Pick History

Today's board · Performance

Pick History

What's listed

Every over/under pick the points model made, at the Hard Rock line closest to even money, and how it graded. Live picks are the model's last prediction before puck drop. Backtest picks replay past seasons at Hard Rock's closing line, using only information from before each game.

Columns

  • Conf — the model's probability that the pick wins. Book — Hard Rock's de-vigged probability of the same side.
  • Units — result of a flat 1-unit bet at the listed price.

Tiers

Top, strong and lean are confidence bands; a toss-up is a player the model has almost no opinion on. The default view hides toss-ups.

Settlement

Overtime counts, shootouts don't, and a player who doesn't play is a void.

Informational only. Not betting advice.

Live Backtest
Record
20667-12503
0 void · 0 pending
Accuracy
62.3%
expected 62.2%
Book favorite, same picks
62.3%
always taking Hard Rock's favored side
Units
-1,634.44u
ROI -4.9% · flat 1u
DatePlayerGamePickTierPriceConfBook PointsResultUnits
2026-10-29
Tyler Seguin
 DAL vs MTL UNDER 0.5 Lean -160 57.5% 57.5% 0 W +0.63
2026-10-29
Joel Eriksson Ek
 MIN vs NYI OVER 0.5 Lean -165 57.5% 57.8% 1 W +0.61
2026-10-29
Cutter Gauthier
 ANA vs BUF OVER 0.5 Lean -145 57.4% 55.4% 2 W +0.69
2026-10-29
Kyle Palmieri
 NYI @ MIN UNDER 0.5 Lean -150 57.3% 55.8% 0 W +0.67
2026-10-29
Jackson LaCombe
 ANA vs BUF OVER 0.5 Lean -160 57.3% 57.5% 2 W +0.63
2026-10-29
JJ Peterka
 BOS @ STL UNDER 0.5 Lean -160 57.2% 57.5% 0 W +0.63
2026-10-29
Kyle Connor
 WPG @ TBL OVER 0.5 Lean -145 57.0% 55.4% 2 W +0.69
2026-10-29
Thomas Harley
 DAL vs MTL UNDER 0.5 Lean -150 57.0% 55.8% 0 W +0.67
2026-10-29
Connor McMichael
 STL vs BOS UNDER 0.5 Lean -150 56.9% 56.3% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-29
Adrian Kempe
 LAK vs OTT OVER 0.5 Lean -155 56.7% 56.7% 0 L -1.00
2026-10-29
Owen Power
 BUF @ ANA UNDER 0.5 Lean -160 56.5% 57.5% 0 W +0.63
2026-10-29
Mavrik Bourque
 NSH vs WSH UNDER 0.5 Lean -160 56.3% 57.5% 0 W +0.63
2026-10-29
Andrew Copp
 DET vs CHI UNDER 0.5 Lean -150 56.2% 56.3% 0 W +0.67
2026-10-29
Zach Benson
 BUF @ ANA OVER 0.5 Lean -145 56.2% 55.4% 3 W +0.69
2026-10-29
Marco Rossi
 VAN @ SJS UNDER 0.5 Lean -155 56.1% 56.7% 0 W +0.65
2026-10-29
Elias Pettersson
 VAN @ SJS OVER 0.5 Lean -165 56.0% 58.4% 1 W +0.61
2026-10-28
Alex Bump
 PHI @ WSH UNDER 0.5 Top -250 71.4% 66.7% 0 W +0.40
2026-10-28
Travis Sanheim
 PHI @ WSH UNDER 0.5 Top -240 69.7% 66.0% 0 W +0.42
2026-10-28
Martin Necas
 COL vs NJD OVER 0.5 Top -240 69.7% 66.0% 0 L -1.00
2026-10-28
Denver Barkey
 PHI @ WSH UNDER 0.5 Top -210 68.1% 62.9% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-28
William Nylander
 TOR @ SEA OVER 0.5 Top -225 68.0% 64.7% 0 L -1.00
2026-10-28
Tyson Foerster
 PHI @ WSH UNDER 0.5 Top -220 67.3% 64.1% 0 W +0.46
2026-10-28
Jack Hughes
 NJD @ COL OVER 0.5 Top -250 66.6% 66.7% 0 L -1.00
2026-10-28
Christian Dvorak
 PHI @ WSH UNDER 0.5 Top -200 66.4% 62.5% 0 W +0.50
2026-10-28
Colton Dach
 EDM vs CGY UNDER 0.5 Strong -225 65.7% 64.7% 0 W +0.44
2026-10-28
Auston Matthews
 TOR @ SEA UNDER 1.5 Strong -225 65.6% 64.7% 3 L -1.00
2026-10-28
Evan Rodrigues
 NJD @ COL UNDER 0.5 Strong -200 65.3% 62.5% 0 W +0.50
2026-10-28
Cale Makar
 COL vs NJD OVER 0.5 Strong -200 65.1% 62.5% 0 L -1.00
2026-10-28
Ryan Strome
 CGY @ EDM UNDER 0.5 Strong -240 65.0% 66.0% 0 W +0.42
2026-10-28
Jamie Drysdale
 PHI @ WSH UNDER 0.5 Strong -165 63.9% 58.4% 0 W +0.61
2026-10-28
Mattias Ekholm
 EDM vs CGY UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 63.9% 63.3% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-28
Evan Bouchard
 EDM vs CGY UNDER 1.5 Strong -210 63.9% 63.8% 1 W +0.48
2026-10-28
Dougie Hamilton
 NJD @ COL UNDER 0.5 Strong -195 63.8% 61.8% 0 W +0.51
2026-10-28
Simon Nemec
 CGY @ EDM UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 63.2% 63.3% 0 W +0.48
2026-10-28
Ryan Shea
 EDM vs CGY UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 62.7% 63.3% 0 W +0.48
2026-10-28
Porter Martone
 PHI @ WSH UNDER 0.5 Strong -165 62.7% 58.4% 0 W +0.61
2026-10-28
Morgan Rielly
 TOR @ SEA UNDER 0.5 Strong -220 62.6% 64.1% 0 W +0.46
2026-10-28
Arseny Gritsyuk
 NJD @ COL UNDER 0.5 Strong -175 62.3% 59.4% 0 W +0.57
2026-10-28
Dylan Strome
 WSH vs PHI OVER 0.5 Strong -170 61.3% 59.2% 3 W +0.59
2026-10-28
Ilya Protas
 WSH vs PHI UNDER 0.5 Strong -200 61.3% 62.5% 0 W +0.50
2026-10-28
Mikael Backlund
 CGY @ EDM UNDER 0.5 Strong -190 61.3% 61.6% 0 W +0.53
2026-10-28
Yegor Sharangovich
 CGY @ EDM UNDER 0.5 Lean -220 60.8% 60.2% 0 W +0.46
2026-10-28
Nick Paul
 TOR @ SEA UNDER 0.5 Lean -180 60.7% 60.2% 0 W +0.56
2026-10-28
Jaden Schwartz
 COL vs NJD UNDER 0.5 Lean -200 59.4% 62.5% 2 L -1.00
2026-10-28
Nathan MacKinnon
 COL vs NJD UNDER 1.5 Lean -180 58.4% 60.2% 1 W +0.56
2026-10-28
Aliaksei Protas
 WSH vs PHI UNDER 0.5 Lean -180 58.4% 60.2% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-28
Kasperi Kapanen
 EDM vs CGY UNDER 0.5 Lean -175 57.9% 59.4% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-28
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
 EDM vs CGY OVER 0.5 Lean -175 57.9% 56.6% 2 W +0.57
2026-10-28
Kaapo Kakko
 SEA vs TOR UNDER 0.5 Lean -180 57.8% 60.2% 0 W +0.56
2026-10-28
T.J. Hughes
 COL vs NJD UNDER 0.5 Lean -180 57.7% 60.2% 0 W +0.56
2026-10-28
Zayne Parekh
 CGY @ EDM UNDER 0.5 Lean -155 57.7% 56.7% 0 W +0.65
2026-10-28
Timo Meier
 NJD @ COL UNDER 0.5 Lean -135 57.1% 53.5% 0 W +0.74
2026-10-28
Berkly Catton
 SEA vs TOR UNDER 0.5 Lean -160 56.8% 57.5% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-28
Devon Toews
 COL vs NJD UNDER 0.5 Lean -175 56.7% 59.4% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-28
Vasily Podkolzin
 EDM vs CGY OVER 0.5 Lean -145 56.6% 55.4% 0 L -1.00
2026-10-28
Jakob Chychrun
 WSH vs PHI OVER 0.5 Lean -135 56.2% 54.1% 1 W +0.74
2026-10-27
Logan Stanley
 NYI @ NSH UNDER 0.5 Top -350 74.7% 73.1% 0 W +0.29
2026-10-27
Adam Wilsby
 NSH vs NYI UNDER 0.5 Top -325 73.8% 72.2% 0 W +0.31
2026-10-27
Warren Foegele
 OTT @ VGK UNDER 0.5 Top -300 71.9% 70.6% 0 W +0.33
2026-10-27
Jonas Brodin
 MIN @ UTA UNDER 0.5 Top -325 71.9% 71.6% 0 W +0.31
2026-10-27
Noah Warren
 ANA vs VAN UNDER 0.5 Top -300 71.6% 69.9% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-27
Artemi Panarin
 LAK @ CHI UNDER 1.5 Top -240 71.6% 66.0% 0 W +0.42
2026-10-27
Artyom Levshunov
 CHI vs LAK UNDER 0.5 Top -325 71.2% 71.6% 0 W +0.31
2026-10-27
Hampus Lindholm
 BOS @ CAR UNDER 0.5 Top -300 71.2% 69.9% 0 W +0.33
2026-10-27
Dylan Samberg
 WPG vs FLA UNDER 0.5 Top -300 71.1% 69.9% 0 W +0.33
2026-10-27
Viggo Björck
 WPG vs FLA UNDER 0.5 Top -275 70.7% 68.4% 0 W +0.36
2026-10-27
Cam York
 PHI vs CBJ UNDER 0.5 Top -275 70.7% 68.4% 0 W +0.36
2026-10-27
Tony DeAngelo
 NYI @ NSH UNDER 0.5 Top -275 70.5% 68.8% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-27
Sebastian Aho
 CAR vs BOS UNDER 1.5 Top -260 70.2% 67.3% 1 W +0.39
2026-10-27
Jaccob Slavin
 CAR vs BOS UNDER 0.5 Top -300 70.1% 69.9% 0 W +0.33
2026-10-27
Matthew Tkachuk
 FLA @ WPG UNDER 1.5 Top -250 70.1% 67.1% 4 L -1.00
2026-10-27
Gustav Forsling
 FLA @ WPG UNDER 0.5 Top -300 70.0% 70.6% 0 W +0.33
2026-10-27
Brady Skjei
 NSH vs NYI UNDER 0.5 Top -260 69.9% 67.7% 0 W +0.39
2026-10-27
Jamie Benn
 DAL vs NJD UNDER 0.5 Top -275 69.9% 68.4% 0 W +0.36
2026-10-27
Jean-Gabriel Pageau
 NYI @ NSH UNDER 0.5 Top -275 69.3% 68.4% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-27
Noah Hanifin
 VGK vs OTT UNDER 0.5 Top -275 69.1% 68.4% 0 W +0.36
2026-10-27
Jack Drury
 NSH vs NYI UNDER 0.5 Top -275 69.1% 68.4% 0 W +0.36
2026-10-27
Jared Spurgeon
 MIN @ UTA UNDER 0.5 Top -300 68.9% 69.9% 0 W +0.33
2026-10-27
Connor Bedard
 CHI vs LAK OVER 0.5 Top -260 68.6% 67.7% 1 W +0.39
2026-10-27
Tim Washe
 ANA vs VAN UNDER 0.5 Top -250 68.3% 67.1% 0 W +0.40
2026-10-27
Noah Cates
 PHI vs CBJ UNDER 0.5 Top -275 68.3% 68.8% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-27
Mitch Marner
 VGK vs OTT UNDER 1.5 Top -250 68.2% 67.1% 1 W +0.40
2026-10-27
Carter Yakemchuk
 OTT @ VGK UNDER 0.5 Top -260 68.2% 67.7% 0 W +0.39
2026-10-27
Mikko Rantanen
 DAL vs NJD UNDER 1.5 Top -225 68.2% 64.7% 0 W +0.44
2026-10-27
Tage Thompson
 BUF @ SJS OVER 0.5 Top -250 68.1% 67.1% 1 W +0.40
2026-10-27
Denton Mateychuk
 CBJ @ PHI UNDER 0.5 Top -260 68.1% 67.7% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-27
Anthony Mantha
 NJD @ DAL UNDER 0.5 Top -240 68.0% 66.4% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-27
Travis Sanheim
 PHI vs CBJ UNDER 0.5 Top -260 68.0% 67.7% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-27
Matt Boldy
 MIN @ UTA OVER 0.5 Top -250 67.9% 67.1% 1 W +0.40
2026-10-27
Stephen Halliday
 OTT @ VGK UNDER 0.5 Top -230 67.9% 65.3% 0 W +0.44
2026-10-27
Erik Haula
 LAK @ CHI UNDER 0.5 Top -240 67.8% 66.0% 0 W +0.42
2026-10-27
Evan Rodrigues
 NJD @ DAL UNDER 0.5 Top -240 67.7% 66.0% 0 W +0.42
2026-10-27
Zeev Buium
 VAN @ ANA UNDER 0.5 Top -250 67.7% 66.7% 1 L -1.00
2026-10-27
Mike Matheson
 MTL @ STL UNDER 0.5 Top -275 67.6% 68.4% 2 L -1.00
2026-10-27
Drew O'Connor
 VAN @ ANA UNDER 0.5 Top -260 67.6% 67.3% 0 W +0.39
2026-10-27
Leo Carlsson
 ANA vs VAN OVER 0.5 Top -240 67.3% 65.6% 2 W +0.42
2026-10-27
Kyle Connor
 WPG vs FLA OVER 0.5 Top -240 67.3% 65.6% 0 L -1.00
2026-10-27
Cutter Gauthier
 ANA vs VAN OVER 0.5 Top -240 67.3% 66.4% 1 W +0.42
2026-10-27
Clayton Keller
 UTA vs MIN OVER 0.5 Top -240 67.2% 66.0% 0 L -1.00
2026-10-27
Danila Yurov
 MIN @ UTA UNDER 0.5 Top -275 67.2% 68.8% 0 W +0.36
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