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EDM -140 15-3-3
PHI 5.5 6-10-6
7:00 PM
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DAL -130 11-6-2
7:00 PM
CGY 6.5 9-10-1
ANA -150 10-9-1
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NSH -170 11-4-5
SJS 6.5 9-11-2
← Models / Points Model — Pick History

Points Model — Pick History

Today's board · Performance

Pick History

What's listed

Every over/under pick the points model made, at the Hard Rock line closest to even money, and how it graded. Live picks are the model's last prediction before puck drop. Backtest picks replay past seasons at Hard Rock's closing line, using only information from before each game.

Columns

  • Conf — the model's probability that the pick wins. Book — Hard Rock's de-vigged probability of the same side.
  • Units — result of a flat 1-unit bet at the listed price.

Tiers

Top, strong and lean are confidence bands; a toss-up is a player the model has almost no opinion on. The default view hides toss-ups.

Settlement

Overtime counts, shootouts don't, and a player who doesn't play is a void.

Informational only. Not betting advice.

Live Backtest
Record
20667-12503
0 void · 0 pending
Accuracy
62.3%
expected 62.2%
Book favorite, same picks
62.3%
always taking Hard Rock's favored side
Units
-1,634.44u
ROI -4.9% · flat 1u
DatePlayerGamePickTierPriceConfBook PointsResultUnits
2026-11-11
Brady Skjei
 NSH @ ANA UNDER 0.5 Top -260 69.8% 67.3% 0 W +0.39
2026-11-11
Oliver Bonk
 PHI @ EDM UNDER 0.5 Top -275 69.3% 68.4% 0 W +0.36
2026-11-11
Mitch Marner
 VGK vs UTA OVER 0.5 Top -250 69.3% 67.1% 3 W +0.40
2026-11-11
Vladislav Gavrikov
 NYR @ CGY UNDER 0.5 Top -300 69.2% 69.9% 0 W +0.33
2026-11-11
Dmitry Orlov
 SJS vs PIT UNDER 0.5 Top -260 68.1% 67.7% 0 W +0.39
2026-11-11
Cutter Gauthier
 ANA vs NSH OVER 0.5 Top -240 67.8% 66.0% 1 W +0.42
2026-11-11
Clayton Keller
 UTA @ VGK OVER 0.5 Top -250 67.8% 66.7% 1 W +0.40
2026-11-11
Ryan Shea
 EDM vs PHI UNDER 0.5 Top -260 67.8% 67.7% 0 W +0.39
2026-11-11
Jake Guentzel
 TBL @ BUF OVER 0.5 Top -240 67.6% 66.0% 4 W +0.42
2026-11-11
Samuel Girard
 PIT @ SJS UNDER 0.5 Top -250 67.6% 67.1% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-11
Nils Hoglander
 NSH @ ANA UNDER 0.5 Top -220 67.5% 64.1% 2 L -1.00
2026-11-11
Sean Couturier
 PHI @ EDM UNDER 0.5 Top -275 67.4% 68.4% 0 W +0.36
2026-11-11
Sidney Crosby
 PIT @ SJS OVER 0.5 Top -230 67.3% 65.3% 0 L -1.00
2026-11-11
Evan Bouchard
 EDM vs PHI UNDER 1.5 Top -225 67.0% 64.7% 2 L -1.00
2026-11-11
Simon Nemec
 CGY vs NYR UNDER 0.5 Top -220 66.6% 64.6% 0 W +0.46
2026-11-11
Brandon Hagel
 TBL @ BUF OVER 0.5 Top -225 66.4% 64.7% 3 W +0.44
2026-11-11
Beckett Sennecke
 ANA vs NSH OVER 0.5 Top -225 66.3% 64.7% 1 W +0.44
2026-11-11
Leo Carlsson
 ANA vs NSH UNDER 1.5 Top -230 66.3% 65.3% 0 W +0.44
2026-11-11
Peyton Krebs
 BUF vs TBL UNDER 0.5 Strong -240 65.7% 66.4% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-11
Jason Zucker
 BUF vs TBL UNDER 0.5 Strong -230 65.3% 64.9% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-11
Yanni Gourde
 TBL @ BUF UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 65.2% 63.3% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-11
Ryan Strome
 CGY vs NYR UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 65.2% 62.9% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-11
Brett Howden
 VGK vs UTA UNDER 0.5 Strong -230 65.0% 65.3% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-11
Victor Hedman
 TBL @ BUF UNDER 0.5 Strong -230 64.8% 65.3% 0 W +0.44
2026-11-11
Aydar Suniev
 CGY vs NYR UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 64.8% 63.3% 0 W +0.48
2026-11-11
MacKenzie Weegar
 UTA @ VGK UNDER 0.5 Strong -325 64.4% 64.7% 0 W +0.31
2026-11-11
Jackson LaCombe
 ANA vs NSH OVER 0.5 Strong -210 64.2% 61.9% 0 L -1.00
2026-11-11
Ryan McLeod
 BUF vs TBL UNDER 0.5 Strong -200 63.9% 62.5% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-11
Erik Karlsson
 PIT @ SJS OVER 0.5 Strong -195 63.9% 61.8% 1 W +0.51
2026-11-11
Josh Norris
 BUF vs TBL UNDER 0.5 Strong -195 63.9% 61.8% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-11
Jack Eichel
 VGK vs UTA UNDER 1.5 Strong -200 63.8% 62.5% 2 L -1.00
2026-11-11
Adam Fox
 NYR @ CGY OVER 0.5 Strong -220 63.6% 62.8% 0 L -1.00
2026-11-11
Filip Forsberg
 NSH @ ANA OVER 0.5 Strong -210 63.5% 63.3% 0 L -1.00
2026-11-11
Mark Stone
 VGK vs UTA OVER 0.5 Strong -195 63.5% 61.8% 1 W +0.51
2026-11-11
Oliver Bjorkstrand
 NYR @ CGY UNDER 0.5 Strong -195 63.3% 61.8% 0 W +0.51
2026-11-11
Yegor Sharangovich
 CGY vs NYR UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 63.2% 63.3% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-11
Ville Koivunen
 PIT @ SJS UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 63.2% 63.3% 0 W +0.48
2026-11-11
Nick Robertson
 PIT @ SJS UNDER 0.5 Strong -195 63.0% 61.8% 0 W +0.51
2026-11-11
Tage Thompson
 BUF vs TBL OVER 0.5 Strong -200 63.0% 62.5% 1 W +0.50
2026-11-11
Shane Wright
 NSH @ ANA UNDER 0.5 Strong -185 62.9% 60.9% 3 L -1.00
2026-11-11
Tyson Foerster
 PHI @ EDM UNDER 0.5 Strong -185 62.5% 60.4% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-11
Josh Doan
 BUF vs TBL UNDER 0.5 Strong -200 62.5% 62.5% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-11
Mikael Granlund
 ANA vs NSH OVER 0.5 Strong -175 62.4% 59.4% 2 W +0.57
2026-11-11
Owen Power
 BUF vs TBL UNDER 0.5 Strong -200 62.3% 62.5% 0 W +0.50
2026-11-11
Mattias Ekholm
 EDM vs PHI UNDER 0.5 Strong -195 62.3% 61.8% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-11
Judd Caulfield
 ANA vs NSH UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 62.2% 62.9% 0 W +0.48
2026-11-11
Christian Dvorak
 PHI @ EDM UNDER 0.5 Strong -195 62.2% 61.8% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-11
Kiefer Sherwood
 SJS vs PIT UNDER 0.5 Strong -200 62.0% 62.5% 0 W +0.50
2026-11-11
Tristan Luneau
 ANA vs NSH UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 62.0% 63.8% 0 W +0.48
2026-11-11
Zayne Parekh
 CGY vs NYR UNDER 0.5 Strong -175 61.6% 59.4% 0 W +0.57
2026-11-11
Tyler Toffoli
 SJS vs PIT UNDER 0.5 Strong -200 61.6% 62.5% 0 W +0.50
2026-11-11
Macklin Celebrini
 SJS vs PIT UNDER 1.5 Strong -180 61.4% 60.2% 2 L -1.00
2026-11-11
Shea Theodore
 VGK vs UTA UNDER 0.5 Strong -200 61.2% 62.5% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-11
Mika Zibanejad
 NYR @ CGY OVER 0.5 Strong -175 61.0% 59.4% 2 W +0.57
2026-11-11
Evgeni Malkin
 PIT @ SJS OVER 0.5 Lean -170 60.9% 58.6% 1 W +0.59
2026-11-11
Owen Tippett
 PHI @ EDM UNDER 0.5 Lean -185 60.7% 58.3% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-11
Jacob Trouba
 SJS vs PIT UNDER 0.5 Lean -160 60.4% 57.5% 0 W +0.63
2026-11-11
Rickard Rakell
 PIT @ SJS OVER 0.5 Lean -175 60.1% 59.4% 1 W +0.57
2026-11-11
Kasperi Kapanen
 EDM vs PHI UNDER 0.5 Lean -190 60.1% 61.1% 0 W +0.53
2026-11-11
Jamie Drysdale
 PHI @ EDM UNDER 0.5 Lean -175 60.0% 58.3% 0 W +0.57
2026-11-11
Mikael Backlund
 CGY vs NYR UNDER 0.5 Lean -160 59.8% 57.5% 0 W +0.63
2026-11-11
Will Cuylle
 NYR @ CGY UNDER 0.5 Lean -175 59.7% 59.4% 0 W +0.57
2026-11-11
Ivan Barbashev
 VGK vs UTA UNDER 0.5 Lean -210 59.5% 60.4% 2 L -1.00
2026-11-11
Kris Letang
 PIT @ SJS UNDER 0.5 Lean -175 59.4% 59.4% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-11
William Karlsson
 VGK vs UTA UNDER 0.5 Lean -180 59.2% 60.2% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-11
Will Smith
 SJS vs PIT OVER 0.5 Lean -165 59.1% 58.4% 1 W +0.61
2026-11-11
Barrett Hayton
 UTA @ VGK UNDER 0.5 Lean -175 59.1% 59.4% 0 W +0.57
2026-11-11
John Carlson
 TBL @ BUF UNDER 0.5 Lean -195 58.9% 61.8% 5 L -1.00
2026-11-11
Rasmus Dahlin
 BUF vs TBL OVER 0.5 Lean -165 58.8% 57.8% 0 L -1.00
2026-11-11
Ryan O'Reilly
 NSH @ ANA OVER 0.5 Lean -175 58.7% 59.4% 0 L -1.00
2026-11-11
Steven Stamkos
 NSH @ ANA OVER 0.5 Lean -170 58.5% 59.2% 1 W +0.59
2026-11-11
Alex Killorn
 ANA vs NSH UNDER 0.5 Lean -170 58.0% 58.6% 0 W +0.59
2026-11-11
Porter Martone
 PHI @ EDM UNDER 0.5 Lean -155 57.9% 56.7% 0 W +0.65
2026-11-11
Roman Josi
 NSH @ ANA OVER 0.5 Lean -150 57.5% 56.3% 2 W +0.67
2026-11-11
Mason Marchment
 SJS vs PIT UNDER 0.5 Lean -165 57.4% 58.4% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-11
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
 EDM vs PHI OVER 0.5 Lean -150 57.1% 56.3% 0 L -1.00
2026-11-11
Vasily Podkolzin
 EDM vs PHI UNDER 0.5 Lean -150 56.9% 56.3% 0 W +0.67
2026-11-11
J.T. Miller
 NYR @ CGY OVER 0.5 Lean -145 56.4% 54.8% 1 W +0.69
2026-11-11
Tye Kartye
 NYR @ CGY UNDER 0.5 Lean -155 56.4% 56.7% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-10
Yakov Trenin
 MIN @ MTL UNDER 0.5 Top -425 74.5% 76.4% 0 W +0.24
2026-11-10
Dylan DeMelo
 WPG vs NJD UNDER 0.5 Top -300 71.9% 69.9% 0 W +0.33
2026-11-10
Jordan Spence
 OTT vs WSH UNDER 0.5 Top -325 71.3% 71.6% 0 W +0.31
2026-11-10
Nick Cousins
 OTT vs WSH UNDER 0.5 Top -275 70.4% 67.6% 0 W +0.36
2026-11-10
Brett Kulak
 COL @ TOR UNDER 0.5 Top -300 69.8% 70.6% 0 W +0.33
2026-11-10
Oliver Kapanen
 MTL vs MIN UNDER 0.5 Top -325 69.8% 71.6% 0 W +0.31
2026-11-10
Colton Parayko
 STL vs DET UNDER 0.5 Top -260 69.4% 67.3% 0 W +0.39
2026-11-10
Nils Hoglander
 NSH @ LAK UNDER 0.5 Top -325 69.2% 71.3% 2 L -1.00
2026-11-10
Oliver Ekman-Larsson
 TOR vs COL UNDER 0.5 Top -250 68.8% 66.7% 0 W +0.40
2026-11-10
Cale Makar
 COL @ TOR OVER 0.5 Top -250 68.7% 66.7% 2 W +0.40
2026-11-10
Nick Suzuki
 MTL vs MIN OVER 0.5 Top -250 68.4% 65.4% 1 W +0.40
2026-11-10
Auston Matthews
 TOR vs COL OVER 0.5 Top -260 68.3% 67.3% 1 W +0.39
2026-11-10
Quinn Hughes
 MIN @ MTL UNDER 1.5 Top -240 68.0% 65.6% 1 W +0.42
2026-11-10
Josh Anderson
 MTL vs MIN UNDER 0.5 Top -325 67.9% 71.6% 0 W +0.31
2026-11-10
Kyle Connor
 WPG vs NJD OVER 0.5 Top -230 67.7% 65.3% 2 W +0.44
2026-11-10
Jonas Brodin
 MIN @ MTL UNDER 0.5 Top -250 67.4% 66.7% 0 W +0.40
2026-11-10
Ilya Protas
 WSH @ OTT UNDER 0.5 Top -275 67.3% 68.8% 0 W +0.36
2026-11-10
Artemi Panarin
 LAK vs NSH UNDER 1.5 Top -240 67.2% 66.0% 0 W +0.42
2026-11-10
Cole Sillinger
 CBJ vs FLA UNDER 0.5 Top -240 67.2% 65.6% 0 W +0.42
2026-11-10
Matt Boldy
 MIN @ MTL UNDER 1.5 Top -225 67.1% 64.7% 1 W +0.44
2026-11-10
Tim Stützle
 OTT vs WSH OVER 0.5 Top -230 67.0% 65.3% 0 L -1.00
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