← Models / SOG Model — Pick History

Pick History

What's listed

Every best bet and lean the shots on goal model made, with the Hard Rock line and price it was made at and how it graded. Live picks are the model's last prediction before puck drop. Backtest picks are a walk-forward simulation of past seasons priced at Hard Rock's closing line, using only information available before each game.

Columns

  • Model / Book — the model's and Hard Rock's (de-vigged) probability for the picked side.
  • EV — expected profit per unit at the price.
  • Units — result of a 1-unit bet (a win at +120 pays +1.20u, a loss is −1u, a push or void 0).
  • CLV — how far Hard Rock's de-vigged probability moved toward (+) or away from (−) the pick between the pick and the close, on the same line. Consistently positive CLV is the best early sign a model is beating the market. Backtest picks are priced at the close, so they have no CLV.

Settlement

Overtime counts, shootouts don't, and a player who doesn't play is a void.

Informational only. Not betting advice.

Record
1558-1512
0 void · 0 pending
Units
+13.40u
ROI
+0.4%
expected +4.6%
Avg CLV
—
no closes yet
DatePlayerGamePickPriceModelBook EVActualResultUnitsCLV
2025-10-26 DAL @ NSH UNDER 2.5 best +130 47.8% 40.6% +9.9% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-10-26 UTA @ WPG UNDER 2.5 best +110 50.3% 44.6% +5.6% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-10-26 COL @ NJD UNDER 2.5 best +115 50.1% 43.4% +7.6% 2 W +1.15 —
2025-10-26 EDM @ VAN UNDER 2.5 lean +110 49.3% 44.6% +3.5% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-10-26 DAL @ NSH UNDER 2.5 lean -170 64.7% 58.6% +2.7% 1 W +0.59 —
2025-10-26 WPG vs UTA UNDER 1.5 lean +120 46.8% 42.5% +3.0% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-10-26 COL @ NJD UNDER 1.5 lean +105 50.7% 45.9% +3.9% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-10-26 COL @ NJD UNDER 2.5 lean -130 57.9% 53.1% +2.4% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-10-26 COL @ NJD OVER 1.5 lean +110 48.9% 44.3% +2.7% 2 W +1.10 —
2025-10-25 CAR @ DAL UNDER 2.5 best +120 48.5% 42.8% +6.8% 2 W +1.20 —
2025-10-25 CAR @ DAL UNDER 2.5 best -140 62.8% 54.5% +7.7% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-10-25 CAR @ DAL UNDER 1.5 best +120 48.3% 42.8% +6.3% 1 W +1.20 —
2025-10-25 MTL @ VAN UNDER 1.5 best -105 54.6% 48.0% +6.5% 1 W +0.95 —
2025-10-25 BUF @ TOR UNDER 2.5 best -155 65.3% 56.7% +7.4% 0 W +0.65 —
2025-10-25 BUF @ TOR UNDER 2.5 best +100 53.2% 46.9% +6.4% 2 W +1.00 —
2025-10-25 UTA @ MIN UNDER 2.5 best +135 44.9% 39.8% +5.6% 5 L -1.00 —
2025-10-25 ANA @ TBL UNDER 2.5 best +135 46.9% 39.8% +10.2% 7 L -1.00 —
2025-10-25 COL @ BOS UNDER 2.5 best +125 47.2% 41.7% +6.3% 2 W +1.25 —
2025-10-25 COL @ BOS UNDER 1.5 best +145 45.7% 38.2% +12.0% 1 W +1.45 —
2025-10-25 DAL vs CAR UNDER 2.5 lean +105 51.0% 45.5% +4.5% 5 L -1.00 —
2025-10-25 CAR @ DAL UNDER 2.5 lean -110 53.8% 48.5% +2.7% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-10-25 MTL @ VAN UNDER 1.5 lean -135 59.8% 53.5% +4.0% 1 W +0.74 —
2025-10-25 OTT @ WSH UNDER 2.5 lean -185 66.9% 60.9% +3.1% 0 W +0.54 —
2025-10-25 OTT @ WSH UNDER 1.5 lean +130 45.0% 40.6% +3.5% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-10-25 WSH vs OTT UNDER 3.5 lean -140 60.5% 54.5% +3.6% 1 W +0.71 —
2025-10-25 FLA vs VGK UNDER 1.5 lean +145 42.6% 38.2% +4.3% 1 W +1.45 —
2025-10-25 COL @ BOS UNDER 3.5 lean +125 46.1% 41.4% +3.6% 3 W +1.25 —
2025-10-24 WPG vs CGY UNDER 1.5 best +115 51.2% 43.4% +10.0% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-10-24 WSH @ CBJ UNDER 1.5 best +130 49.3% 40.9% +13.5% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-10-24 BUF vs TOR UNDER 2.5 best -130 60.3% 53.1% +6.7% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-10-24 WPG vs CGY UNDER 2.5 lean -125 58.0% 52.0% +4.3% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-10-24 WSH @ CBJ UNDER 2.5 lean -115 54.7% 50.0% +2.2% 6 L -1.00 —
2025-10-24 NJD vs SJS UNDER 1.5 lean +145 41.8% 38.2% +2.3% 0 W +1.45 —
2025-10-24 BUF vs TOR UNDER 2.5 lean +120 47.6% 42.8% +4.6% 0 W +1.20 —
2025-10-23 MTL @ EDM UNDER 1.5 best -110 56.8% 49.0% +8.4% 1 W +0.91 —
2025-10-23 MTL @ EDM UNDER 1.5 best +110 52.4% 44.3% +9.9% 0 W +1.10 —
2025-10-23 COL vs CAR UNDER 1.5 best +105 51.6% 45.5% +5.8% 7 L -1.00 —
2025-10-23 WPG vs SEA UNDER 1.5 best +115 51.4% 43.4% +10.4% 0 W +1.15 —
2025-10-23 WPG vs SEA UNDER 2.5 best -115 57.8% 50.0% +8.0% 1 W +0.87 —
2025-10-23 DET @ NYI UNDER 2.5 best +130 46.0% 40.9% +5.7% 5 L -1.00 —
2025-10-23 NYI vs DET UNDER 2.5 best +120 47.9% 42.8% +5.3% 0 W +1.20 —
2025-10-23 OTT vs PHI UNDER 1.5 best +145 43.7% 38.2% +7.1% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-10-23 PHI @ OTT UNDER 2.5 best +105 52.3% 45.5% +7.1% 2 W +1.05 —
2025-10-23 EDM vs MTL UNDER 1.5 lean +125 45.5% 41.4% +2.4% 1 W +1.25 —
2025-10-23 CAR @ COL UNDER 1.5 lean +125 45.6% 41.4% +2.6% 1 W +1.25 —
2025-10-23 COL vs CAR UNDER 3.5 lean +105 51.1% 45.9% +4.7% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-10-23 COL vs CAR OVER 1.5 lean +100 51.5% 46.5% +3.0% 1 L -1.00 —
2025-10-23 LAK @ DAL UNDER 1.5 lean +135 43.6% 39.8% +2.4% 0 W +1.35 —
2025-10-23 DAL vs LAK UNDER 2.5 lean +110 49.8% 44.3% +4.6% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-10-23 VAN @ NSH UNDER 2.5 lean -130 58.0% 53.1% +2.5% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-10-23 UTA @ STL UNDER 2.5 lean +110 49.4% 44.6% +3.8% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-10-23 NYR vs SJS UNDER 2.5 lean +125 46.4% 41.4% +4.4% 2 W +1.25 —
2025-10-23 NYI vs DET UNDER 2.5 lean -175 65.4% 59.4% +2.7% 1 W +0.57 —
2025-10-23 DET @ NYI UNDER 1.5 lean +100 51.1% 46.5% +2.2% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-10-23 DET @ NYI UNDER 2.5 lean +105 50.0% 45.9% +2.6% 5 L -1.00 —
2025-10-23 FLA vs PIT UNDER 2.5 lean -105 53.3% 47.5% +4.1% 7 L -1.00 —
2025-10-23 OTT vs PHI UNDER 2.5 lean -175 65.7% 59.4% +3.3% 2 W +0.57 —
2025-10-23 ANA @ BOS UNDER 3.5 lean -175 66.7% 59.4% +4.8% 3 W +0.57 —
2025-10-22 MTL @ CGY UNDER 1.5 best +110 50.3% 44.3% +5.6% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-10-22 MTL @ CGY UNDER 1.5 lean -125 57.2% 52.0% +2.9% 1 W +0.80 —
2025-10-22 BUF vs DET UNDER 2.5 lean -155 63.6% 56.7% +4.6% 1 W +0.65 —
2025-10-22 MIN @ NJD UNDER 3.5 lean -145 61.4% 55.4% +3.7% 0 W +0.69 —
2025-10-21 ANA @ NSH UNDER 2.5 best +130 47.5% 40.6% +9.3% 2 W +1.30 —
2025-10-21 FLA @ BOS UNDER 2.5 best +125 53.5% 41.7% +20.4% 1 W +1.25 —
2025-10-21 WSH vs SEA UNDER 1.5 best +100 54.5% 46.9% +9.0% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-10-21 WSH vs SEA UNDER 3.5 best -130 59.7% 53.1% +5.6% 1 W +0.77 —
2025-10-21 TOR vs NJD UNDER 1.5 best +110 51.8% 44.6% +8.7% 1 W +1.10 —
2025-10-21 COL @ UTA UNDER 2.5 lean +100 51.1% 46.9% +2.2% 2 W +1.00 —
2025-10-21 COL @ UTA UNDER 1.5 lean +115 48.8% 43.4% +4.9% 1 W +1.15 —
2025-10-21 CBJ @ DAL UNDER 2.5 lean +110 48.9% 44.6% +2.7% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-10-21 DAL vs CBJ UNDER 3.5 lean -165 64.9% 58.4% +4.3% 3 W +0.61 —
2025-10-21 ANA @ NSH UNDER 1.5 lean +130 45.1% 40.6% +3.6% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-10-21 LAK @ STL UNDER 2.5 lean +120 47.7% 42.8% +4.9% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-10-21 FLA @ BOS UNDER 2.5 lean -190 67.7% 61.6% +3.3% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-10-21 WSH vs SEA UNDER 1.5 lean +150 41.1% 37.5% +2.8% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-10-21 WSH vs SEA UNDER 2.5 lean -125 57.0% 52.0% +2.5% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-10-21 VAN @ PIT UNDER 1.5 lean +130 45.3% 40.6% +4.2% 1 W +1.30 —
2025-10-21 NYI vs SJS UNDER 3.5 lean -155 62.2% 56.7% +2.4% 1 W +0.65 —
2025-10-21 OTT vs EDM UNDER 2.5 lean -160 63.3% 57.5% +2.9% 1 W +0.63 —
2025-10-21 OTT vs EDM UNDER 2.5 lean -180 67.3% 60.2% +4.8% 1 W +0.56 —
2025-10-20 MTL vs BUF UNDER 1.5 best -105 53.8% 48.0% +5.1% 0 W +0.95 —
2025-10-20 MTL vs BUF UNDER 1.5 best +145 44.6% 38.2% +9.4% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-10-20 PHI vs SEA OVER 1.5 best +105 51.4% 45.9% +5.4% 0 L -1.00 —
2025-10-20 NYR vs MIN UNDER 2.5 best +115 49.3% 43.4% +6.0% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-10-20 CAR @ VGK UNDER 1.5 lean +140 42.5% 38.9% +2.1% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-10-20 VGK vs CAR UNDER 2.5 lean +135 44.4% 39.8% +4.3% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-10-20 BUF @ MTL UNDER 1.5 lean +135 43.5% 39.8% +2.3% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-10-20 PHI vs SEA UNDER 2.5 lean -105 53.6% 47.5% +4.6% 5 L -1.00 —
2025-10-20 SEA @ PHI UNDER 2.5 lean -180 66.1% 60.2% +2.9% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-10-20 NYR vs MIN UNDER 1.5 lean +145 41.7% 38.2% +2.1% 0 W +1.45 —
2025-10-20 NYR vs MIN UNDER 2.5 lean +135 43.6% 39.8% +2.6% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-10-19 BOS @ UTA UNDER 1.5 best +135 44.9% 39.6% +5.6% 0 W +1.35 —
2025-10-19 ANA @ CHI UNDER 3.5 best -150 63.9% 56.3% +6.5% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-10-19 VAN @ WSH UNDER 2.5 best -125 59.1% 52.0% +6.3% 2 W +0.80 —
2025-10-19 UTA vs BOS UNDER 2.5 lean +130 45.3% 40.9% +4.1% 2 W +1.30 —
2025-10-19 BOS @ UTA UNDER 3.5 lean -120 55.7% 51.0% +2.1% 5 L -1.00 —
2025-10-19 UTA vs BOS UNDER 2.5 lean -110 54.5% 49.0% +4.1% 1 W +0.91 —
2025-10-19 DET vs EDM UNDER 2.5 lean -180 66.7% 60.2% +3.8% 0 W +0.56 —
2025-10-19 DET vs EDM UNDER 3.5 lean -180 65.8% 60.2% +2.4% 5 L -1.00 —
2025-10-19 WSH vs VAN UNDER 1.5 lean +135 44.4% 39.8% +4.3% 0 W +1.35 —
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