← Models / SOG Model — Pick History

Pick History

What's listed

Every best bet and lean the shots on goal model made, with the Hard Rock line and price it was made at and how it graded. Live picks are the model's last prediction before puck drop. Backtest picks are a walk-forward simulation of past seasons priced at Hard Rock's closing line, using only information available before each game.

Columns

  • Model / Book — the model's and Hard Rock's (de-vigged) probability for the picked side.
  • EV — expected profit per unit at the price.
  • Units — result of a 1-unit bet (a win at +120 pays +1.20u, a loss is −1u, a push or void 0).
  • CLV — how far Hard Rock's de-vigged probability moved toward (+) or away from (−) the pick between the pick and the close, on the same line. Consistently positive CLV is the best early sign a model is beating the market. Backtest picks are priced at the close, so they have no CLV.

Settlement

Overtime counts, shootouts don't, and a player who doesn't play is a void.

Informational only. Not betting advice.

Record
1558-1512
0 void · 0 pending
Units
+13.40u
ROI
+0.4%
expected +4.6%
Avg CLV
—
no closes yet
DatePlayerGamePickPriceModelBook EVActualResultUnitsCLV
2025-01-28 TBL vs CHI UNDER 1.5 best +130 46.0% 40.6% +5.8% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-01-28 ANA @ SEA UNDER 1.5 lean +105 50.0% 45.5% +2.5% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-01-28 ANA @ SEA OVER 1.5 lean +105 49.9% 45.5% +2.3% 0 L -1.00 —
2025-01-28 MTL vs WPG UNDER 2.5 lean -125 57.7% 52.0% +3.9% 1 W +0.80 —
2025-01-28 BOS @ BUF UNDER 3.5 lean +125 45.7% 41.7% +2.7% 2 W +1.25 —
2025-01-27 NJD @ PHI UNDER 2.5 best +100 53.0% 46.9% +6.0% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-01-27 PIT @ SJS UNDER 2.5 lean -130 57.9% 53.1% +2.4% 2 W +0.77 —
2025-01-27 NJD @ PHI UNDER 3.5 lean -135 59.5% 53.5% +3.6% 6 L -1.00 —
2025-01-27 PHI vs NJD UNDER 1.5 lean +100 51.1% 46.5% +2.2% 1 W +1.00 —
2025-01-27 NJD @ PHI UNDER 1.5 lean +135 43.6% 39.6% +2.5% 1 W +1.35 —
2025-01-27 NJD @ PHI UNDER 2.5 lean -150 61.9% 55.8% +3.2% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-01-27 LAK @ DET UNDER 2.5 lean +125 45.6% 41.7% +2.6% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-01-27 DET vs LAK UNDER 2.5 lean +120 46.9% 42.2% +3.1% 5 L -1.00 —
2025-01-26 NYR vs COL UNDER 2.5 best +125 46.8% 41.4% +5.2% 5 L -1.00 —
2025-01-26 COL @ NYR OVER 1.5 best +100 54.4% 46.9% +8.8% 0 L -1.00 —
2025-01-26 VGK vs FLA UNDER 2.5 lean +100 51.8% 46.9% +3.6% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-01-26 VGK vs FLA UNDER 1.5 lean +115 47.8% 43.7% +2.7% 1 W +1.15 —
2025-01-26 FLA @ VGK UNDER 2.5 lean -190 67.4% 61.6% +2.8% 2 W +0.53 —
2025-01-26 MIN @ CHI UNDER 3.5 lean -110 53.6% 49.0% +2.2% 2 W +0.91 —
2025-01-25 WSH @ VAN UNDER 2.5 best +120 48.2% 42.2% +6.1% 7 L -1.00 —
2025-01-25 TBL @ DET UNDER 1.5 best +110 50.8% 44.6% +6.7% 1 W +1.10 —
2025-01-25 SJS vs FLA UNDER 2.5 lean +130 45.2% 40.6% +4.0% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-01-25 FLA @ SJS UNDER 1.5 lean +130 44.9% 40.6% +3.3% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-01-25 FLA @ SJS UNDER 2.5 lean +110 49.4% 44.3% +3.8% 1 W +1.10 —
2025-01-25 CAR @ NYI UNDER 2.5 lean -125 58.1% 52.0% +4.5% 2 W +0.80 —
2025-01-25 DAL @ STL UNDER 2.5 lean -110 54.6% 49.0% +4.2% 2 W +0.91 —
2025-01-25 DAL @ STL UNDER 1.5 lean +145 42.8% 38.2% +4.8% 1 W +1.45 —
2025-01-25 OTT vs TOR UNDER 2.5 lean -150 61.6% 56.3% +2.6% 0 W +0.67 —
2025-01-25 MTL vs NJD UNDER 2.5 lean -135 59.2% 54.1% +3.1% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-01-25 BUF @ EDM OVER 1.5 lean -120 56.9% 51.0% +4.3% 3 W +0.83 —
2025-01-25 COL @ BOS UNDER 1.5 lean +145 41.7% 38.2% +2.2% 1 W +1.45 —
2025-01-24 DAL vs VGK UNDER 1.5 best +150 44.5% 37.5% +11.3% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-01-24 NYI vs PHI UNDER 1.5 best -110 55.8% 49.0% +6.5% 1 W +0.91 —
2025-01-24 UTA @ WPG UNDER 1.5 lean +100 51.6% 46.9% +3.2% 1 W +1.00 —
2025-01-24 VGK @ DAL UNDER 2.5 lean -130 58.4% 53.1% +3.3% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-01-24 DAL vs VGK UNDER 2.5 lean -110 54.8% 49.0% +4.6% 2 W +0.91 —
2025-01-24 VGK @ DAL UNDER 1.5 lean +105 49.8% 45.9% +2.1% 2 L -1.00 —
2025-01-24 TBL @ CHI UNDER 1.5 lean +105 50.0% 45.9% +2.6% 6 L -1.00 —
2025-01-23 CAR vs CBJ UNDER 2.5 best -110 58.6% 49.0% +11.9% 2 W +0.91 —
2025-01-23 NYR vs PHI UNDER 2.5 best +120 49.4% 42.5% +8.7% 1 W +1.20 —
2025-01-23 OTT @ BOS UNDER 2.5 best -155 64.3% 56.7% +5.8% 2 W +0.65 —
2025-01-23 NSH @ SJS UNDER 3.5 lean -105 52.8% 48.0% +3.1% 6 L -1.00 —
2025-01-23 WSH @ SEA UNDER 3.5 lean -170 64.7% 59.2% +2.7% 2 W +0.59 —
2025-01-23 EDM vs VAN UNDER 2.5 lean -120 56.7% 51.0% +3.9% 1 W +0.83 —
2025-01-23 UTA @ MIN UNDER 1.5 lean +110 49.4% 44.6% +3.7% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-01-23 NYR vs PHI UNDER 2.5 lean -180 65.6% 60.2% +2.1% 2 W +0.56 —
2025-01-23 BOS vs OTT UNDER 3.5 lean +120 46.6% 42.5% +2.4% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-01-22 FLA @ LAK UNDER 2.5 lean -135 59.6% 54.1% +3.8% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-01-21 WSH @ EDM UNDER 2.5 best +135 47.0% 39.8% +10.4% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-01-21 EDM vs WSH UNDER 2.5 lean -125 57.2% 52.0% +3.0% 5 L -1.00 —
2025-01-21 DAL vs CAR UNDER 1.5 lean +110 49.4% 44.3% +3.8% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-01-21 CAR @ DAL UNDER 2.5 lean -185 66.5% 60.4% +2.5% 2 W +0.54 —
2025-01-21 SJS @ NSH UNDER 2.5 lean +120 46.5% 42.8% +2.2% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-01-21 NYR vs OTT UNDER 2.5 lean +125 45.8% 41.4% +3.1% 5 L -1.00 —
2025-01-21 MTL vs TBL UNDER 2.5 lean -120 56.9% 51.0% +4.3% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-01-19 DAL vs DET UNDER 2.5 best +110 50.4% 44.6% +5.8% 2 W +1.10 —
2025-01-19 OTT @ NJD UNDER 1.5 best +145 43.0% 38.0% +5.3% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-01-19 DAL vs DET UNDER 2.5 lean -125 57.9% 52.0% +4.2% 2 W +0.80 —
2025-01-19 DAL vs DET UNDER 1.5 lean +135 43.7% 39.6% +2.7% 1 W +1.35 —
2025-01-19 DET @ DAL UNDER 2.5 lean -125 57.3% 52.0% +3.1% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-01-18 NYI vs SJS UNDER 2.5 best +130 46.1% 40.9% +6.1% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-01-18 PIT @ WSH UNDER 2.5 best -155 64.0% 57.2% +5.3% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-01-18 EDM @ VAN UNDER 1.5 lean +115 48.1% 43.7% +3.3% 1 W +1.15 —
2025-01-18 WSH vs PIT UNDER 2.5 lean -135 59.1% 53.5% +2.9% 5 L -1.00 —
2025-01-18 TBL vs DET UNDER 2.5 lean -115 54.7% 50.0% +2.2% 0 W +0.87 —
2025-01-18 DAL @ COL UNDER 2.5 lean -120 56.6% 51.0% +3.8% 6 L -1.00 —
2025-01-18 BOS @ OTT UNDER 3.5 lean +110 49.6% 44.6% +4.2% 6 L -1.00 —
2025-01-18 NJD vs PHI UNDER 3.5 lean -110 53.8% 49.0% +2.7% 1 W +0.91 —
2025-01-18 NJD vs PHI UNDER 2.5 lean +100 51.2% 46.9% +2.4% 1 W +1.00 —
2025-01-18 NJD vs PHI UNDER 2.5 lean -135 59.3% 53.5% +3.2% 2 W +0.74 —
2025-01-17 CAR vs VGK UNDER 1.5 best +120 48.1% 42.5% +5.9% 0 W +1.20 —
2025-01-17 CAR vs VGK UNDER 2.5 lean -170 64.6% 59.2% +2.7% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-01-17 PIT @ BUF OVER 1.5 lean -110 53.5% 48.5% +2.1% 1 L -1.00 —
2025-01-16 NJD @ TOR UNDER 3.5 best +115 49.5% 43.4% +6.5% 5 L -1.00 —
2025-01-16 DAL vs MTL UNDER 2.5 lean -125 56.9% 52.0% +2.4% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-01-16 DAL vs MTL UNDER 2.5 lean +100 52.1% 46.9% +4.1% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-01-16 MTL @ DAL UNDER 2.5 lean -170 66.0% 59.2% +4.8% 1 W +0.59 —
2025-01-16 CBJ vs SJS OVER 2.5 lean +125 45.6% 41.4% +2.7% 3 W +1.25 —
2025-01-16 CBJ vs SJS OVER 3.5 lean +110 50.0% 44.6% +4.9% 7 W +1.10 —
2025-01-16 WSH @ OTT UNDER 3.5 lean -175 65.2% 59.4% +2.4% 3 W +0.57 —
2025-01-16 NJD @ TOR UNDER 2.5 lean -120 56.4% 51.0% +3.3% 0 W +0.83 —
2025-01-14 MTL @ UTA UNDER 2.5 lean -150 61.9% 56.3% +3.2% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-01-14 COL vs NYR OVER 1.5 lean -140 59.6% 54.5% +2.2% 1 L -1.00 —
2025-01-14 NYI vs OTT UNDER 2.5 lean -115 54.9% 50.0% +2.7% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-01-14 PHI @ CBJ UNDER 2.5 lean +125 45.5% 41.4% +2.4% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-01-14 PIT vs SEA OVER 2.5 lean -105 52.4% 47.5% +2.3% 4 W +0.95 —
2025-01-14 NJD vs FLA UNDER 2.5 lean +100 51.4% 46.5% +2.7% 2 W +1.00 —
2025-01-14 FLA @ NJD UNDER 2.5 lean -110 53.6% 49.0% +2.4% 1 W +0.91 —
2025-01-14 DET vs SJS UNDER 2.5 lean +135 43.5% 39.8% +2.3% 1 W +1.35 —
2025-01-14 DAL @ TOR UNDER 2.5 lean -125 56.7% 51.5% +2.0% 2 W +0.80 —
2025-01-14 BOS vs TBL UNDER 3.5 lean +125 45.4% 41.4% +2.1% 4 L -1.00 —
2025-01-13 FLA @ PHI UNDER 2.5 best +110 50.1% 44.3% +5.2% 1 W +1.10 —
2025-01-13 EDM vs LAK UNDER 1.5 lean +125 45.5% 41.7% +2.4% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-01-12 MIN @ VGK UNDER 3.5 best -140 62.3% 54.5% +6.8% 1 W +0.71 —
2025-01-12 MIN @ VGK UNDER 2.5 best +105 51.5% 45.9% +5.5% 0 W +1.05 —
2025-01-12 ANA @ CAR UNDER 1.5 best +115 49.4% 43.7% +6.1% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-01-12 CAR vs ANA UNDER 2.5 best +110 50.1% 44.6% +5.1% 3 L -1.00 —
2025-01-12 CAR vs ANA UNDER 2.5 best +100 52.8% 46.9% +5.5% 1 W +1.00 —
2025-01-12 CAR vs ANA UNDER 2.5 best +125 47.5% 41.4% +6.8% 2 W +1.25 —
2025-01-12 CAR vs ANA UNDER 2.5 best -125 60.5% 52.0% +8.9% 6 L -1.00 —
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