← Models / SOG Model — Pick History

Pick History

What's listed

Every best bet and lean the shots on goal model made, with the Hard Rock line and price it was made at and how it graded. Live picks are the model's last prediction before puck drop. Backtest picks are a walk-forward simulation of past seasons priced at Hard Rock's closing line, using only information available before each game.

Columns

  • Model / Book — the model's and Hard Rock's (de-vigged) probability for the picked side.
  • EV — expected profit per unit at the price.
  • Units — result of a 1-unit bet (a win at +120 pays +1.20u, a loss is −1u, a push or void 0).
  • CLV — how far Hard Rock's de-vigged probability moved toward (+) or away from (−) the pick between the pick and the close, on the same line. Consistently positive CLV is the best early sign a model is beating the market. Backtest picks are priced at the close, so they have no CLV.

Settlement

Overtime counts, shootouts don't, and a player who doesn't play is a void.

Informational only. Not betting advice.

Record
1558-1512
0 void · 0 pending
Units
+13.40u
ROI
+0.4%
expected +4.6%
Avg CLV
—
no closes yet
DatePlayerGamePickPriceModelBook EVActualResultUnitsCLV
2024-12-31 NJD @ ANA UNDER 3.5 lean -170 65.3% 59.2% +3.6% 3 W +0.59 —
2024-12-31 NJD @ ANA UNDER 2.5 lean +110 48.7% 44.6% +2.2% 6 L -1.00 —
2024-12-31 NSH @ MIN UNDER 2.5 lean +120 47.3% 42.8% +4.0% 7 L -1.00 —
2024-12-31 DAL vs BUF UNDER 2.5 lean +120 46.8% 42.5% +2.9% 4 L -1.00 —
2024-12-31 BUF @ DAL UNDER 1.5 lean +120 46.7% 42.5% +2.6% 0 W +1.20 —
2024-12-31 DAL vs BUF UNDER 1.5 lean +135 43.8% 39.8% +2.9% 1 W +1.35 —
2024-12-31 DAL vs BUF UNDER 2.5 lean -115 54.9% 50.0% +2.6% 2 W +0.87 —
2024-12-31 BUF @ DAL UNDER 2.5 lean +105 50.1% 45.5% +2.6% 1 W +1.05 —
2024-12-31 DAL vs BUF UNDER 1.5 lean +140 42.6% 38.9% +2.3% 7 L -1.00 —
2024-12-31 CAR @ CBJ UNDER 2.5 lean +110 49.6% 44.6% +4.1% 1 W +1.10 —
2024-12-31 CAR @ CBJ UNDER 2.5 lean +100 51.2% 46.9% +2.4% 4 L -1.00 —
2024-12-31 VGK vs MTL UNDER 2.5 lean -115 54.6% 50.0% +2.2% 0 W +0.87 —
2024-12-31 NYI @ TOR UNDER 2.5 lean -120 56.4% 51.0% +3.4% 5 L -1.00 —
2024-12-31 TOR vs NYI UNDER 2.5 lean -105 53.5% 48.0% +4.4% 0 W +0.95 —
2024-12-30 UTA @ SEA UNDER 2.5 best -115 56.6% 50.0% +5.7% 0 W +0.87 —
2024-12-30 NSH @ WPG UNDER 3.5 best -110 55.5% 49.0% +6.0% 1 W +0.91 —
2024-12-30 NSH @ WPG UNDER 2.5 best +135 45.5% 39.8% +6.9% 2 W +1.35 —
2024-12-30 UTA @ SEA UNDER 1.5 lean +130 45.4% 40.9% +4.5% 2 L -1.00 —
2024-12-30 NYR @ FLA UNDER 3.5 lean -175 66.1% 59.4% +3.8% 1 W +0.57 —
2024-12-30 FLA vs NYR UNDER 2.5 lean -140 61.1% 54.5% +4.8% 0 W +0.71 —
2024-12-29 CGY @ VGK UNDER 2.5 best -150 63.1% 56.3% +5.2% 0 W +0.67 —
2024-12-29 OTT @ MIN UNDER 1.5 best +150 42.7% 37.5% +6.8% 1 W +1.50 —
2024-12-29 OTT @ MIN UNDER 3.5 best +110 50.7% 44.3% +6.5% 6 L -1.00 —
2024-12-29 BUF @ STL UNDER 1.5 best +145 43.3% 38.2% +6.2% 2 L -1.00 —
2024-12-29 MTL @ TBL UNDER 2.5 best -130 61.3% 52.5% +8.4% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-12-29 WSH @ DET UNDER 3.5 best -150 64.4% 55.8% +7.3% 8 L -1.00 —
2024-12-29 EDM @ ANA UNDER 2.5 best -135 62.4% 54.1% +8.6% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-12-29 DAL @ CHI UNDER 2.5 best +120 48.3% 42.2% +6.2% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-12-29 PHI @ LAK UNDER 2.5 lean -125 58.0% 52.0% +4.5% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-12-29 LAK vs PHI UNDER 2.5 lean +115 47.7% 43.4% +2.6% 5 L -1.00 —
2024-12-29 CGY @ VGK UNDER 1.5 lean +140 42.5% 38.9% +2.1% 0 W +1.40 —
2024-12-29 CGY @ VGK UNDER 1.5 lean +130 45.6% 40.6% +5.0% 1 W +1.30 —
2024-12-29 OTT @ MIN UNDER 1.5 lean +140 42.8% 39.1% +2.6% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-12-29 MIN vs OTT UNDER 1.5 lean +125 45.6% 41.4% +2.7% 0 W +1.25 —
2024-12-29 BUF @ STL UNDER 2.5 lean -185 66.3% 60.4% +2.2% 0 W +0.54 —
2024-12-29 BUF @ STL UNDER 2.5 lean +105 49.9% 45.5% +2.2% 2 W +1.05 —
2024-12-29 BUF @ STL UNDER 2.5 lean +125 45.7% 41.7% +2.9% 2 W +1.25 —
2024-12-29 PIT vs NYI UNDER 2.5 lean -160 63.0% 57.5% +2.3% 1 W +0.63 —
2024-12-29 TBL vs MTL UNDER 3.5 lean -130 59.2% 52.5% +4.8% 2 W +0.77 —
2024-12-29 TBL vs MTL UNDER 2.5 lean -135 58.9% 53.5% +2.5% 0 W +0.74 —
2024-12-29 WSH @ DET UNDER 2.5 lean -135 60.2% 53.5% +4.7% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-12-29 EDM @ ANA UNDER 2.5 lean +115 48.4% 43.4% +4.1% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-12-29 ANA vs EDM UNDER 2.5 lean +135 44.6% 39.8% +4.7% 5 L -1.00 —
2024-12-29 EDM @ ANA UNDER 2.5 lean +130 45.1% 40.6% +3.8% 4 L -1.00 —
2024-12-29 ANA vs EDM UNDER 1.5 lean +115 47.6% 43.4% +2.3% 1 W +1.15 —
2024-12-29 DAL @ CHI UNDER 2.5 lean -190 66.9% 61.1% +2.1% 2 W +0.53 —
2024-12-29 DAL @ CHI UNDER 2.5 lean -115 55.6% 50.0% +3.9% 5 L -1.00 —
2024-12-29 DAL @ CHI UNDER 2.5 lean -145 60.5% 55.4% +2.2% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-12-28 NJD @ CAR UNDER 3.5 best -120 59.2% 51.0% +8.5% 4 L -1.00 —
2024-12-28 CAR vs NJD UNDER 2.5 best +100 54.5% 46.9% +9.1% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-12-28 CAR vs NJD UNDER 2.5 best -110 55.5% 49.0% +5.9% 2 W +0.91 —
2024-12-28 CAR vs NJD UNDER 1.5 best +110 51.1% 44.6% +7.4% 2 L -1.00 —
2024-12-28 CAR vs NJD UNDER 2.5 best -115 57.0% 50.0% +6.5% 5 L -1.00 —
2024-12-28 NJD @ CAR UNDER 2.5 best +105 52.3% 45.5% +7.2% 1 W +1.05 —
2024-12-28 NJD @ CAR UNDER 2.5 best -200 70.5% 62.5% +5.7% 0 W +0.50 —
2024-12-28 WSH @ TOR UNDER 3.5 best -160 64.9% 57.5% +5.4% 3 W +0.63 —
2024-12-28 BOS vs CBJ UNDER 3.5 best +125 47.2% 41.4% +6.3% 5 L -1.00 —
2024-12-28 BOS vs CBJ UNDER 2.5 best +105 51.4% 45.5% +5.3% 4 L -1.00 —
2024-12-28 EDM @ LAK UNDER 2.5 best -190 69.1% 61.6% +5.4% 2 W +0.53 —
2024-12-28 MTL @ FLA UNDER 2.5 best -145 63.9% 55.4% +8.0% 1 W +0.69 —
2024-12-28 FLA vs MTL UNDER 2.5 best -145 62.8% 55.4% +6.2% 2 W +0.69 —
2024-12-28 PIT @ NYI UNDER 2.5 lean -165 63.9% 58.4% +2.7% 2 W +0.61 —
2024-12-28 PIT @ NYI UNDER 2.5 lean +125 45.7% 41.7% +2.8% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-12-28 OTT @ WPG UNDER 1.5 lean +145 42.1% 38.2% +3.2% 5 L -1.00 —
2024-12-28 CAR vs NJD UNDER 2.5 lean -150 62.2% 56.3% +3.7% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-12-28 NYR @ TBL UNDER 2.5 lean +135 43.6% 39.8% +2.5% 6 L -1.00 —
2024-12-28 NYR @ TBL UNDER 2.5 lean -180 66.1% 60.2% +2.7% 5 L -1.00 —
2024-12-28 TBL vs NYR UNDER 3.5 lean -140 60.3% 54.5% +3.3% 5 L -1.00 —
2024-12-28 WSH @ TOR UNDER 2.5 lean -150 61.7% 56.3% +2.8% 4 L -1.00 —
2024-12-28 TOR vs WSH UNDER 2.5 lean -115 55.0% 50.0% +2.9% 2 W +0.87 —
2024-12-28 EDM @ LAK UNDER 2.5 lean -125 57.6% 52.0% +3.6% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-12-28 ANA vs PHI UNDER 1.5 lean +145 42.1% 38.4% +3.1% 2 L -1.00 —
2024-12-28 ANA vs PHI UNDER 1.5 lean +130 44.7% 40.9% +2.8% 0 W +1.30 —
2024-12-28 PHI @ ANA UNDER 2.5 lean +125 46.4% 41.7% +4.4% 2 W +1.25 —
2024-12-28 PHI @ ANA UNDER 1.5 lean +130 44.9% 40.6% +3.2% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-12-28 ANA vs PHI UNDER 1.5 lean +120 46.5% 42.5% +2.4% 1 W +1.20 —
2024-12-28 VAN vs SEA UNDER 1.5 lean +125 45.8% 41.4% +3.0% 0 W +1.25 —
2024-12-28 FLA vs MTL UNDER 2.5 lean +135 43.6% 39.8% +2.4% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-12-27 DAL vs MIN UNDER 2.5 best +120 47.8% 42.5% +5.1% 2 W +1.20 —
2024-12-27 MIN @ DAL UNDER 3.5 best -170 66.4% 58.6% +5.4% 1 W +0.59 —
2024-12-27 NSH @ STL UNDER 3.5 best -115 56.5% 50.0% +5.6% 2 W +0.87 —
2024-12-27 NSH @ STL UNDER 2.5 best +125 48.3% 41.7% +8.6% 5 L -1.00 —
2024-12-27 BOS @ CBJ UNDER 3.5 best +115 49.2% 43.7% +5.8% 6 L -1.00 —
2024-12-27 BOS @ CBJ UNDER 2.5 best +105 51.6% 45.5% +5.7% 2 W +1.05 —
2024-12-27 CAR @ NJD UNDER 1.5 best +110 50.0% 44.3% +5.1% 0 W +1.10 —
2024-12-27 NJD vs CAR UNDER 1.5 best +135 45.0% 39.8% +5.8% 4 L -1.00 —
2024-12-27 CAR @ NJD UNDER 1.5 best +135 46.6% 39.8% +9.6% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-12-27 VGK @ SJS UNDER 2.5 lean -125 57.1% 52.0% +2.8% 1 W +0.80 —
2024-12-27 SJS vs VGK UNDER 2.5 lean +105 50.1% 45.5% +2.7% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-12-27 UTA vs COL UNDER 2.5 lean -115 55.4% 50.0% +3.5% 5 L -1.00 —
2024-12-27 DAL vs MIN UNDER 2.5 lean -195 67.7% 61.8% +2.5% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-12-27 DAL vs MIN UNDER 2.5 lean -130 58.9% 53.1% +4.3% 0 W +0.77 —
2024-12-27 DAL vs MIN UNDER 2.5 lean -120 56.7% 51.0% +4.0% 2 W +0.83 —
2024-12-27 MIN @ DAL UNDER 1.5 lean +135 43.5% 39.6% +2.1% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-12-27 MIN @ DAL UNDER 2.5 lean -160 63.6% 57.5% +3.3% 1 W +0.63 —
2024-12-27 DAL vs MIN UNDER 1.5 lean +130 44.6% 40.9% +2.6% 0 W +1.30 —
2024-12-27 CAR @ NJD UNDER 2.5 lean -115 55.6% 50.0% +4.0% 3 L -1.00 —
2024-12-27 CAR @ NJD UNDER 2.5 lean -115 56.1% 50.0% +4.9% 0 W +0.87 —
2024-12-27 NJD vs CAR UNDER 2.5 lean +105 50.8% 45.5% +4.1% 1 W +1.05 —
2024-12-27 TOR @ DET UNDER 2.5 lean +130 44.5% 40.6% +2.3% 0 W +1.30 —
21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29