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SOG Model — Pick History

Today's board · Performance

Pick History

What's listed

Every best bet and lean the shots on goal model made, with the Hard Rock line and price it was made at and how it graded. Live picks are the model's last prediction before puck drop. Backtest picks are a walk-forward simulation of past seasons priced at Hard Rock's closing line, using only information available before each game.

Columns

  • Model / Book — the model's and Hard Rock's (de-vigged) probability for the picked side.
  • EV — expected profit per unit at the price.
  • Units — result of a 1-unit bet (a win at +120 pays +1.20u, a loss is −1u, a push or void 0).
  • CLV — how far Hard Rock's de-vigged probability moved toward (+) or away from (−) the pick between the pick and the close, on the same line. Consistently positive CLV is the best early sign a model is beating the market. Backtest picks are priced at the close, so they have no CLV.

Settlement

Overtime counts, shootouts don't, and a player who doesn't play is a void.

Informational only. Not betting advice.

Live Backtest
Record
1558-1512
0 void · 0 pending
Units
+13.40u
ROI
+0.4%
expected +4.6%
Avg CLV
—
no closes yet
DatePlayerGamePickPriceModelBook EVActualResultUnitsCLV
2026-05-12
Ivan Demidov
 MTL vs BUF UNDER 1.5 lean +125 45.4% 41.7% +2.2% 2 L -1.00 —
2026-05-11
Matt Boldy
 MIN vs COL UNDER 3.5 lean +110 49.8% 44.6% +4.7% 1 W +1.10 —
2026-05-11
Quinn Hughes
 MIN vs COL OVER 2.5 lean +140 42.7% 38.9% +2.4% 2 L -1.00 —
2026-05-11
Ryan Hartman
 MIN vs COL UNDER 2.5 lean +105 50.8% 45.5% +4.2% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-05-10
Leo Carlsson
 ANA vs VGK UNDER 3.5 best -150 63.0% 56.3% +5.1% 0 W +0.67 —
2026-05-10
Cutter Gauthier
 ANA vs VGK UNDER 3.5 best -125 59.8% 52.0% +7.6% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-05-10
Tomas Hertl
 VGK @ ANA UNDER 1.5 lean +130 44.7% 40.9% +2.9% 1 W +1.30 —
2026-05-10
Ivan Demidov
 MTL vs BUF UNDER 1.5 lean +135 43.6% 39.8% +2.4% 1 W +1.35 —
2026-05-09
Ryan Hartman
 MIN vs COL UNDER 2.5 lean +100 51.4% 46.5% +2.8% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-05-09
Logan Stankoven
 CAR @ PHI UNDER 2.5 lean -115 56.1% 50.0% +4.9% 2 W +0.87 —
2026-05-08
Leo Carlsson
 ANA vs VGK UNDER 3.5 best -145 62.6% 55.4% +5.8% 3 W +0.69 —
2026-05-08
Cutter Gauthier
 ANA vs VGK UNDER 3.5 best -115 57.4% 48.6% +7.2% 2 W +0.87 —
2026-05-08
Rasmus Dahlin
 BUF vs MTL UNDER 2.5 lean +120 47.5% 42.5% +4.5% 5 L -1.00 —
2026-05-07
Logan Stankoven
 CAR @ PHI UNDER 2.5 lean -105 53.7% 48.0% +4.9% 2 W +0.95 —
2026-05-06
Cutter Gauthier
 ANA @ VGK UNDER 3.5 best -120 59.7% 51.0% +9.5% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-05-06
Leo Carlsson
 ANA @ VGK UNDER 3.5 lean -165 64.8% 58.4% +4.1% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-05-05
Matt Boldy
 MIN @ COL UNDER 3.5 best +110 51.6% 44.6% +8.4% 1 W +1.10 —
2026-05-05
Kirill Kaprizov
 MIN @ COL UNDER 3.5 lean -125 58.2% 52.0% +4.8% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-05-04
Cutter Gauthier
 ANA @ VGK UNDER 3.5 best +120 54.6% 42.5% +20.1% 2 W +1.20 —
2026-05-04
Andrei Svechnikov
 CAR vs PHI UNDER 2.5 best +125 47.9% 41.7% +7.9% 1 W +1.25 —
2026-05-04
Sebastian Aho
 CAR vs PHI UNDER 2.5 best +105 51.2% 45.5% +5.0% 1 W +1.05 —
2026-05-04
Nikolaj Ehlers
 CAR vs PHI UNDER 2.5 best +120 48.0% 42.8% +5.6% 1 W +1.20 —
2026-05-04
Leo Carlsson
 ANA @ VGK UNDER 2.5 lean +120 47.5% 42.8% +4.6% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-05-04
Logan Stankoven
 CAR vs PHI UNDER 2.5 lean -110 54.4% 48.5% +3.9% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-05-03
Ryan Hartman
 MIN @ COL UNDER 2.5 best +100 53.5% 46.9% +7.0% 7 L -1.00 —
2026-05-03
Matt Boldy
 MIN @ COL UNDER 3.5 lean +105 51.1% 45.5% +4.7% 3 W +1.05 —
2026-05-03
Brent Burns
 COL vs MIN UNDER 1.5 lean +145 41.8% 38.2% +2.4% 0 W +1.45 —
2026-05-03
Darren Raddysh
 TBL vs MTL UNDER 3.5 lean -115 55.5% 50.0% +3.8% 2 W +0.87 —
2026-05-03
Oliver Bjorkstrand
 TBL vs MTL OVER 1.5 lean +165 38.7% 35.1% +2.6% 3 W +1.65 —
2026-05-03
Nikita Kucherov
 TBL vs MTL UNDER 3.5 lean +105 50.8% 45.5% +4.0% 3 W +1.05 —
2026-05-02
Andrei Svechnikov
 CAR vs PHI UNDER 2.5 best +125 47.8% 41.7% +7.5% 1 W +1.25 —
2026-05-02
Sebastian Aho
 CAR vs PHI UNDER 2.5 lean +105 51.1% 45.5% +4.8% 1 W +1.05 —
2026-05-02
Nikolaj Ehlers
 CAR vs PHI UNDER 2.5 lean +105 50.4% 45.5% +3.3% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-05-01
Dylan Guenther
 UTA vs VGK UNDER 3.5 best -115 56.6% 50.0% +5.7% 1 W +0.87 —
2026-05-01
Juraj Slafkovský
 MTL vs TBL UNDER 2.5 best +100 52.7% 46.9% +5.5% 2 W +1.00 —
2026-05-01
Nikita Kucherov
 TBL @ MTL UNDER 3.5 best +100 53.7% 46.9% +7.3% 6 L -1.00 —
2026-05-01
Tage Thompson
 BUF @ BOS UNDER 3.5 best +110 51.1% 44.6% +7.2% 5 L -1.00 —
2026-05-01
Tomas Hertl
 VGK @ UTA UNDER 1.5 lean +145 41.7% 38.2% +2.1% 2 L -1.00 —
2026-05-01
Darren Raddysh
 TBL @ MTL UNDER 3.5 lean -145 60.7% 55.4% +2.6% 6 L -1.00 —
2026-05-01
Bowen Byram
 BUF @ BOS UNDER 1.5 lean +105 50.4% 45.5% +3.4% 1 W +1.05 —
2026-05-01
Rasmus Dahlin
 BUF @ BOS UNDER 2.5 lean +100 51.1% 45.8% +2.2% 5 L -1.00 —
2026-05-01
Pavel Zacha
 BOS vs BUF UNDER 1.5 lean +150 41.6% 37.5% +3.9% 1 W +1.50 —
2026-04-30
Beckett Sennecke
 ANA vs EDM UNDER 2.5 best +120 48.3% 42.5% +6.3% 2 W +1.20 —
2026-04-30
Cutter Gauthier
 ANA vs EDM UNDER 3.5 best +105 53.3% 45.9% +9.2% 5 L -1.00 —
2026-04-30
Wyatt Johnston
 DAL @ MIN UNDER 2.5 best +135 45.6% 39.8% +7.2% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-04-30
Matt Boldy
 MIN vs DAL UNDER 3.5 best +120 48.6% 42.5% +6.9% 5 L -1.00 —
2026-04-30
Leo Carlsson
 ANA vs EDM UNDER 3.5 lean -135 60.0% 53.5% +4.4% 2 W +0.74 —
2026-04-30
Mason McTavish
 ANA vs EDM UNDER 2.5 lean -170 64.6% 59.2% +2.6% 1 W +0.59 —
2026-04-30
Brock Faber
 MIN vs DAL UNDER 2.5 lean -140 59.8% 54.5% +2.5% 0 W +0.71 —
2026-04-30
Jason Robertson
 DAL @ MIN UNDER 4.5 lean -160 63.0% 57.5% +2.4% 2 W +0.63 —
2026-04-29
Dylan Guenther
 UTA @ VGK UNDER 3.5 best -120 59.1% 51.0% +8.4% 6 L -1.00 —
2026-04-28
Cutter Gauthier
 ANA @ EDM UNDER 3.5 best +105 53.3% 45.5% +9.3% 2 W +1.05 —
2026-04-28
Wyatt Johnston
 DAL vs MIN UNDER 2.5 best +135 44.7% 39.8% +5.1% 0 W +1.35 —
2026-04-28
Mason McTavish
 ANA @ EDM UNDER 1.5 lean +145 42.1% 38.2% +3.2% 0 W +1.45 —
2026-04-28
Matt Boldy
 MIN @ DAL UNDER 3.5 lean -110 53.6% 49.0% +2.4% 7 L -1.00 —
2026-04-28
Jason Robertson
 DAL vs MIN UNDER 3.5 lean +125 45.9% 41.7% +3.2% 5 L -1.00 —
2026-04-28
Joel Eriksson Ek
 MIN @ DAL UNDER 3.5 lean -160 62.9% 57.5% +2.2% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-04-28
Tage Thompson
 BUF vs BOS UNDER 3.5 lean +105 49.9% 45.5% +2.4% 2 W +1.05 —
2026-04-28
Alex Tuch
 BUF vs BOS UNDER 2.5 lean +125 46.1% 41.7% +3.6% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-04-27
Dylan Guenther
 UTA vs VGK UNDER 3.5 best -115 57.4% 50.0% +7.2% 7 L -1.00 —
2026-04-27
Sidney Crosby
 PIT vs PHI UNDER 2.5 best +120 48.6% 42.8% +6.8% 0 W +1.20 —
2026-04-26
Cutter Gauthier
 ANA vs EDM UNDER 3.5 best +100 53.6% 46.9% +7.1% 5 L -1.00 —
2026-04-26
Jack Quinn
 BUF @ BOS UNDER 2.5 best +135 45.8% 39.8% +7.6% 1 W +1.35 —
2026-04-26
Tage Thompson
 BUF @ BOS UNDER 3.5 best +115 50.1% 43.7% +7.7% 3 W +1.15 —
2026-04-26
Alex Tuch
 BUF @ BOS UNDER 2.5 best +125 47.7% 41.7% +7.3% 6 L -1.00 —
2026-04-26
Beckett Sennecke
 ANA vs EDM UNDER 2.5 lean -105 52.3% 48.0% +2.0% 5 L -1.00 —
2026-04-26
Mason McTavish
 ANA vs EDM UNDER 1.5 lean +145 42.4% 38.4% +3.8% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-04-26
Leon Draisaitl
 EDM @ ANA UNDER 3.5 lean -180 66.6% 60.2% +3.6% 2 W +0.56 —
2026-04-26
Ivan Demidov
 MTL vs TBL UNDER 1.5 lean +140 43.2% 39.1% +3.8% 1 W +1.40 —
2026-04-26
Juraj Slafkovský
 MTL vs TBL UNDER 2.5 lean +100 51.9% 46.5% +3.8% 2 W +1.00 —
2026-04-26
Darren Raddysh
 TBL @ MTL UNDER 3.5 lean -155 62.9% 56.7% +3.5% 3 W +0.65 —
2026-04-26
Nikita Kucherov
 TBL @ MTL UNDER 3.5 lean -130 58.3% 53.1% +3.1% 3 W +0.77 —
2026-04-26
Rasmus Dahlin
 BUF @ BOS UNDER 2.5 lean +105 50.4% 45.5% +3.3% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-04-26
Pavel Zacha
 BOS vs BUF UNDER 1.5 lean +145 42.5% 38.2% +4.2% 1 W +1.45 —
2026-04-25
Andrei Svechnikov
 CAR @ OTT UNDER 2.5 best +105 51.3% 45.5% +5.2% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-04-25
Wyatt Johnston
 DAL @ MIN UNDER 2.5 lean +125 46.5% 41.7% +4.6% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-04-25
Jason Robertson
 DAL @ MIN UNDER 3.5 lean +110 49.6% 44.6% +4.1% 7 L -1.00 —
2026-04-25
Ryan Hartman
 MIN vs DAL UNDER 2.5 lean -120 56.0% 51.0% +2.7% 7 L -1.00 —
2026-04-25
Owen Tippett
 PHI vs PIT UNDER 2.5 lean +105 49.9% 45.5% +2.2% 0 W +1.05 —
2026-04-25
Sidney Crosby
 PIT @ PHI UNDER 2.5 lean -110 53.8% 48.5% +2.7% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-04-25
Dylan Cozens
 OTT vs CAR UNDER 2.5 lean +100 52.0% 46.9% +3.9% 2 W +1.00 —
2026-04-24
Cutter Gauthier
 ANA vs EDM UNDER 3.5 best -110 56.5% 49.0% +7.8% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-04-24
Dylan Guenther
 UTA vs VGK UNDER 3.5 best -115 58.0% 50.0% +8.4% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-04-24
Ivan Demidov
 MTL vs TBL UNDER 1.5 lean +140 43.1% 38.9% +3.4% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-04-24
Juraj Slafkovský
 MTL vs TBL UNDER 2.5 lean +100 51.1% 46.9% +2.2% 1 W +1.00 —
2026-04-24
Darren Raddysh
 TBL @ MTL UNDER 3.5 lean -150 62.8% 56.3% +4.7% 1 W +0.67 —
2026-04-24
Nikita Kucherov
 TBL @ MTL UNDER 3.5 lean -135 58.8% 53.5% +2.4% 1 W +0.74 —
2026-04-23
Jack Quinn
 BUF @ BOS UNDER 2.5 best +125 47.3% 41.7% +6.4% 5 L -1.00 —
2026-04-23
Rasmus Dahlin
 BUF @ BOS UNDER 2.5 best +110 50.4% 44.6% +5.7% 2 W +1.10 —
2026-04-23
Tage Thompson
 BUF @ BOS UNDER 3.5 best +115 49.8% 43.4% +7.1% 3 W +1.15 —
2026-04-23
Alex Tuch
 BUF @ BOS UNDER 2.5 best +125 47.9% 41.7% +7.7% 2 W +1.25 —
2026-04-23
Cale Makar
 COL @ LAK UNDER 2.5 lean +125 45.7% 41.7% +2.7% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-04-23
Andrei Svechnikov
 CAR @ OTT UNDER 2.5 lean +100 52.2% 46.5% +4.5% 2 W +1.00 —
2026-04-22
Wyatt Johnston
 DAL @ MIN UNDER 2.5 best +130 46.1% 40.6% +6.0% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-04-22
Leo Carlsson
 ANA @ EDM UNDER 3.5 lean -175 65.2% 59.4% +2.4% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-04-22
Cutter Gauthier
 ANA @ EDM UNDER 3.5 lean -160 63.9% 57.5% +3.8% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-04-22
Mason McTavish
 ANA @ EDM UNDER 1.5 lean +130 45.0% 40.9% +3.6% 2 L -1.00 —
2026-04-22
Leon Draisaitl
 EDM vs ANA UNDER 3.5 lean -170 65.9% 58.6% +4.7% 3 W +0.59 —
2026-04-22
Jason Robertson
 DAL @ MIN UNDER 3.5 lean +110 49.3% 44.3% +3.5% 5 L -1.00 —
2026-04-22
Owen Tippett
 PHI vs PIT UNDER 2.5 lean +120 47.5% 42.5% +4.5% 1 W +1.20 —
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