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← Stats / TOR @ TBL

TOR @ TBL

Wednesday, February 25, 2026 · 6:30 PM CT

How the Matchup Page Works

Lines

Before puck drop the page uses Hard Rock Bet's latest moneyline, puck line and total; once the game is final it switches to Hard Rock's closing line so you can see how each bet graded. Hard Rock only — no other sportsbook is shown. Hard Rock doesn't post period totals to our feed, so the period table shows DraftKings and FanDuel lines (labelled DK / FD) and grades at DraftKings' number (FanDuel's if DraftKings has none, 1.5 if neither has posted); the 0.5 / 1.5 / 2.5 chips grade at a fixed line instead. vs DK/FD Close is each team's record against past games' DraftKings (else FanDuel) closing period total.

Betting trends

Each team's hit rate at tonight's number: Season (last season until 5 games are played), L5 / L10, Venue (home games for the home team, road games for the visitor) and H2H (meetings this season and last). vs HR Close is the record against each past game's own Hard Rock closing line (moneyline: in the role — favorite or underdog — the team has tonight). Trends only use games played before this one.

Totals and puck lines are graded on the official final score (overtime counts; the shootout winner gets one goal). Period totals use regulation goals of that period only.

Props, goalies, H2H

Player props lists every Hard Rock line for this game with Season / L10 / H2H over rates at that line; after the game the actual stat is shown. Goalies shows each team's starter from ESPN's probable-goalie report: Confirmed once the team or a beat reporter confirms it, Expected before that, refreshed every 30 minutes on game days. With no report yet it falls back to the team's most recent starter (Last start). After the game it shows the real starters from the box score. Injuries lists both teams' players on ESPN's injury report (Day-To-Day, Out, Injured Reserve) before puck drop. Head-to-head lists recent meetings with period scores and how the Hard Rock closing total graded.

Informational only. Not betting advice.

Toronto Maple Leafs
32-36-14 · Away
2 – 4
FINAL
Tampa Bay Lightning
50-26-6 · Home
Hard Rock Lines Hard Rock closing line
Moneyline
TOR +175 · TBL -225
Puck Line
TOR +1.5 (-130) · TBL -1.5 (+105)
Total
O 5.5 (-145) · U (+115)

Graded: total 6 → OVER W · TBL -1.5 W

Betting Trends Season
MarketTeamLineSeasonL5L10VenueH2Hvs HR Close
Game Total
Over 5.5
 TORo5.5 65%
37-20
80%
4-1
70%
7-3
73%
19-7
80%
4-1
61%
34-22
TBLo5.5 55%
30-25
60%
3-2
40%
4-6
56%
15-12
80%
4-1
51%
28-27
Puck Line
cover %
 TOR+1.5 68%
39-18
60%
3-2
50%
5-5
58%
15-11
100%
5-0
-14.12u
23-33
TBL-1.5 46%
25-30
60%
3-2
50%
5-5
37%
10-17
0%
0-5
+3.44u
28-27
Moneyline
win %
 TOR dog +175 47%
27-30
60%
3-2
40%
4-6
42%
11-15
100%
5-0
-1.03u
13-17
TBL fav -225 67%
37-18
100%
5-0
80%
8-2
67%
18-9
0%
0-5
+2.46u
29-15
Period Totals grade at DK/FD line 0.5 1.5 2.5 · Hard Rock posts no period totals — DraftKings / FanDuel shown (closing)
PeriodDK / FDTeamSeasonL5L10VenueH2Hvs DK/FD CloseAvg goalsGF / GA
1st Period
over 1.5
 DK 1.5 o-135/u+105 FD 1.5 o-122/u-104 TOR 60%
34-23
40%
2-3
60%
6-4
54%
14-12
40%
2-3
60%
34-23
 1.81 0.91 / 0.89
TBL 56%
31-24
60%
3-2
70%
7-3
52%
14-13
40%
2-3
56%
31-24
 2.02 1.15 / 0.87
2nd Period
over 1.5
 DK 1.5 o-180/u+140 FD 1.5 o-168/u+132 TOR 70%
40-17
100%
5-0
80%
8-2
73%
19-7
60%
3-2
63%
36-21
 2.16 0.98 / 1.18
TBL 56%
31-24
60%
3-2
70%
7-3
63%
17-10
60%
3-2
49%
27-28
 1.87 1.13 / 0.75
3rd Period
over 1.5
 FD 2.5 o+136/u-174 TOR 72%
41-16
60%
3-2
70%
7-3
85%
22-4
60%
3-2
51%
29-28
 2.44 1.26 / 1.18
TBL 56%
31-24
40%
2-3
30%
3-7
56%
15-12
60%
3-2
44%
24-31
 2.04 1.18 / 0.85
Team Comparison '25-26
TORTBL
Record (W-L-OTL)32-36-1450-26-6
Points %47.6%64.6%
Goals for / game3.093.54
Goals against / game3.652.82
Shots for / game26.328.1
Shots against / game32.426.7
Power play %21.3%20.7%
Penalty kill %81.2%82.6%
Faceoff %54.3%47.3%
1st period GF / GA0.84 / 0.990.96 / 0.93
2nd period GF / GA0.95 / 1.231.22 / 0.84
3rd period GF / GA1.18 / 1.261.23 / 0.98
Avg game total6.736.35
Starting Goalies from the box score
32 saves on 36 shots · 4 GA · L
32 saves on 34 shots · 2 GA · W
P1P2P3OTSOGPP
TOR0020341/2
TBL0220360/4
Player Props Hard Rock lines for this game · over rates at each line
TORPropLineSeasonL10H2HActual
William Nylander G 0.5
o+175
 38% 60% 60%3/5 0 U
Bobby McMann G 0.5
o+275
 32% 50% 0%0/4 0 U
Max Domi G 0.5
o+300
 15% 40% 0%0/4 0 U
John Tavares G 0.5
o+225
 32% 30% 25%1/4 1 O
Auston Matthews G 0.5
o+145
 43% 30% 60%3/5 0 U
Morgan Rielly G 0.5
o+700
 13% 20% 20%1/5 0 U
Scott Laughton G 0.5
o+650
 21% 20% 0%0/3 0 U
Nick Robertson G 0.5
o+425
 22% 20% 25%1/4 0 U
Matias Maccelli G 0.5
o+350
 20% 20% 0%0/1 0 U
Matthew Knies G 0.5
o+300
 22% 20% 80%4/5 1 O
Oliver Ekman-Larsson G 0.5
o+900
 14% 10% 0%0/5 0 U
Calle Jarnkrok G 0.5
o+900
 16% 10% 0%0/2 0 U
Nicolas Roy G 0.5
o+600
 9% 10% 33%1/3 0 U
Troy Stecher G 0.5
o+1300
 7% 10% 0%0/3 0 U
Jake McCabe G 0.5
o+1200
 6% 0% 0%0/4 0 U
Brandon Carlo G 0.5
o+1400
 0% 0% 0%0/3 0 U
Steven Lorentz G 0.5
o+850
 8% 0% 0%0/5 0 U
Simon Benoit G 0.5
o+2000
 0% 0% 0%0/5 0 U
Max Domi PTS 0.5
o+105 / u-140
 40% 80% 25%1/4 0 U
William Nylander PTS 0.5
o-195 / u+145
 70% 70% 60%3/5 2 O
Bobby McMann PTS 0.5
o+115 / u-150
 46% 70% 50%2/4 0 U
Auston Matthews PTS 0.5
o-200 / u+150
 63% 60% 100%5/5 1 O
John Tavares PTS 0.5
o-115 / u-115
 60% 50% 100%4/4 1 O
Oliver Ekman-Larsson PTS 0.5
o+175 / u-240
 46% 40% 20%1/5 0 U
Morgan Rielly PTS 0.5
o+145 / u-195
 46% 40% 80%4/5 0 U
Matias Maccelli PTS 0.5
o+145 / u-200
 41% 40% 0%0/1 0 U
Matthew Knies PTS 0.5
o+100 / u-130
 54% 40% 80%4/5 2 O
Max Domi A 0.5
o+185 / u-250
 31% 60% 25%1/4 0 U
William Nylander A 0.5
o+105 / u-140
 60% 60% 20%1/5 2 O
Auston Matthews A 0.5
o+120 / u-160
 39% 60% 60%3/5 1 O
Oliver Ekman-Larsson A 0.5
o+210 / u-300
 39% 40% 20%1/5 0 U
Bobby McMann A 0.5
o+225 / u-325
 21% 30% 50%2/4 0 U
Matthew Knies A 0.5
o+175 / u-240
 44% 30% 40%2/5 1 O
John Tavares A 0.5
o+175 / u-240
 40% 20% 75%3/4 0 U
Morgan Rielly A 0.5
o+185 / u-250
 35% 20% 60%3/5 0 U
Matias Maccelli A 0.5
o+275 / u-400
 26% 20% 0%0/1 0 U
John Tavares SOG 1.5
o-190 / u+140
 68% 60% 75%3/4 3 O
Morgan Rielly SOG 1.5
o-105 / u-130
 56% 60% 60%3/5 3 O
William Nylander SOG 2.5
o+135 / u-180
 38% 60% 80%4/5 4 O
Bobby McMann SOG 1.5
o-200 / u+145
 54% 60% 75%3/4 3 O
Auston Matthews SOG 3.5
o+105 / u-135
 55% 50% 60%3/5 2 U
Max Domi SOG 1.5
o-110 / u-120
 42% 40% 25%1/4 2 O
Matthew Knies SOG 1.5
o-115 / u-115
 48% 40% 80%4/5 3 O
Anthony Stolarz SV 26.5
o-115 / u-115
 44% 30% 50%1/2 32 O
TBLPropLineSeasonL10H2HActual
Nikita Kucherov G 0.5
o-105
 47% 60% 0%0/4 1 O
Jake Guentzel G 0.5
o+125
 38% 50% 25%1/4 0 U
Brayden Point G 0.5
o+160
 27% 50% 20%1/5 2 O
Darren Raddysh G 0.5
o+260
 29% 50% 20%1/5 0 U
Oliver Bjorkstrand G 0.5
o+300
 16% 40% 25%1/4 0 U
Brandon Hagel G 0.5
o+140
 42% 40% 0%0/5 0 U
Pontus Holmberg G 0.5
o+375
 19% 20% 0%0/1 0 U
Dominic James G 0.5
o+400
 13% 20% — 0 U
Ryan McDonagh G 0.5
o+1200
 18% 10% 0%0/4 0 U
Yanni Gourde G 0.5
o+425
 11% 10% 0%0/3 0 U
Zemgus Girgensons G 0.5
o+475
 13% 10% 0%0/5 0 U
Erik Cernak G 0.5
o+1200
 3% 10% 0%0/3 0 U
Victor Hedman G 0.5
o+650
 0% 0% 20%1/5 0 U
Scott Sabourin G 0.5
o+800
 9% 0% — 0 U
Charle-Edouard D'Astous G 0.5
o+1000
 7% 0% 0%0/1 0 U
Gage Goncalves G 0.5
o+425
 10% 0% 0%0/3 1 O
J.J. Moser G 0.5
o+900
 9% 0% 0%0/4 0 U
Emil Lilleberg G 0.5
o+1400
 6% 0% 0%0/5 0 U
Brayden Point PTS 0.5
o-175 / u+130
 57% 80% 40%2/5 3 O
Darren Raddysh PTS 0.5
o-190 / u+140
 59% 80% 40%2/5 0 U
Nikita Kucherov PTS 1.5
o-150 / u+110
 61% 70% 0%0/4 3 O
Victor Hedman PTS 0.5
o+125 / u-170
 52% 50% 80%4/5 0 U
Jake Guentzel PTS 1.5
o+150 / u-200
 35% 50% 0%0/4 0 U
Oliver Bjorkstrand PTS 0.5
o+110 / u-145
 38% 50% 50%2/4 0 U
Yanni Gourde PTS 0.5
o+165 / u-225
 35% 30% 0%0/3 0 U
Brandon Hagel PTS 1.5
o+180 / u-250
 34% 30% 40%2/5 0 U
Jake Guentzel A 0.5
o-130 / u+100
 47% 60% 0%0/4 0 U
Darren Raddysh A 0.5
o-120 / u-110
 47% 60% 40%2/5 0 U
Brandon Hagel A 0.5
o-110 / u-120
 42% 60% 60%3/5 0 U
Victor Hedman A 0.5
o+165 / u-225
 52% 50% 80%4/5 0 U
Nikita Kucherov A 1.5
o+150 / u-210
 35% 50% 0%0/4 2 O
Brayden Point A 0.5
o+130 / u-170
 41% 40% 20%1/5 1 O
Yanni Gourde A 0.5
o+275 / u-425
 26% 30% 0%0/3 0 U
Oliver Bjorkstrand A 0.5
o+200 / u-275
 26% 20% 50%2/4 0 U
Darren Raddysh SOG 2.5
o-155 / u+120
 51% 80% 0%0/5 3 O
Oliver Bjorkstrand SOG 1.5
o-150 / u+110
 46% 60% 25%1/4 4 O
Brandon Hagel SOG 2.5
o-180 / u+135
 62% 60% 40%2/5 4 O
Pontus Holmberg SOG 1.5
o-145 / u+110
 44% 60% 0%0/1 0 U
Yanni Gourde SOG 1.5
o-105 / u-125
 44% 50% 33%1/3 3 O
Jake Guentzel SOG 2.5
o-130 / u-105
 44% 50% 75%3/4 5 O
Victor Hedman SOG 1.5
o-110 / u-120
 48% 30% 80%4/5 1 U
Nikita Kucherov SOG 3.5
o-105 / u-125
 33% 30% 50%2/4 2 U
Brayden Point SOG 2.5
o+125 / u-170
 38% 30% 40%2/5 5 O
Andrei Vasilevskiy SV 22.5
o-120 / u-110
 57% 60% 67%2/3 32 O
Head-to-Head last 10 meetings
DateWhereScoreP1P2P3TotalHR CloseWinner
Dec 8, 2025 at TOR TBL 0–2 0–10–00–1 2 6.5 U TOR
Apr 9, 2025 at TBL TBL 3–4 OT 1–20–02–1 7 5.5 O TOR
Jan 20, 2025 at TOR TBL 3–5 0–11–22–2 8 — TOR
Nov 30, 2024 at TBL TBL 3–5 0–10–33–1 8 6 O TOR
Oct 21, 2024 at TOR TBL 2–5 1–10–41–0 7 6.5 O TOR
Apr 17, 2024 at TBL TBL 6–4 2–13–01–3 10 — TBL
Apr 3, 2024 at TOR TBL 4–1 1–12–01–0 5 — TBL
Nov 6, 2023 at TOR TBL 5–6 OT 4–10–21–2 11 — TOR
Oct 21, 2023 at TBL TBL 3–4 OT 3–10–00–2 7 — TOR
Apr 29, 2023 at TBL TBL 1–2 OT 0–00–11–0 3 — TOR