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← Stats / TBL @ TOR

TBL @ TOR

Saturday, March 7, 2026 · 6:00 PM CT

How the Matchup Page Works

Lines

Before puck drop the page uses Hard Rock Bet's latest moneyline, puck line and total; once the game is final it switches to Hard Rock's closing line so you can see how each bet graded. Hard Rock only — no other sportsbook is shown. Hard Rock doesn't post period totals to our feed, so the period table shows DraftKings and FanDuel lines (labelled DK / FD) and grades at DraftKings' number (FanDuel's if DraftKings has none, 1.5 if neither has posted); the 0.5 / 1.5 / 2.5 chips grade at a fixed line instead. vs DK/FD Close is each team's record against past games' DraftKings (else FanDuel) closing period total.

Betting trends

Each team's hit rate at tonight's number: Season (last season until 5 games are played), L5 / L10, Venue (home games for the home team, road games for the visitor) and H2H (meetings this season and last). vs HR Close is the record against each past game's own Hard Rock closing line (moneyline: in the role — favorite or underdog — the team has tonight). Trends only use games played before this one.

Totals and puck lines are graded on the official final score (overtime counts; the shootout winner gets one goal). Period totals use regulation goals of that period only.

Props, goalies, H2H

Player props lists every Hard Rock line for this game with Season / L10 / H2H over rates at that line; after the game the actual stat is shown. Goalies shows each team's starter from ESPN's probable-goalie report: Confirmed once the team or a beat reporter confirms it, Expected before that, refreshed every 30 minutes on game days. With no report yet it falls back to the team's most recent starter (Last start). After the game it shows the real starters from the box score. Injuries lists both teams' players on ESPN's injury report (Day-To-Day, Out, Injured Reserve) before puck drop. Head-to-head lists recent meetings with period scores and how the Hard Rock closing total graded.

Informational only. Not betting advice.

Tampa Bay Lightning
50-26-6 · Away
5 – 2
FINAL
Toronto Maple Leafs
32-36-14 · Home
Hard Rock Lines Hard Rock closing line
Moneyline
TBL -220 · TOR +170
Puck Line
TBL -1.5 (+105) · TOR +1.5 (-130)
Total
O 6.5 (-105) · U (-115)

Graded: total 7 → OVER W · TOR +1.5 L

Betting Trends Season
MarketTeamLineSeasonL5L10VenueH2Hvs HR Close
Game Total
Over 6.5
 TBLo6.5 43%
26-34
40%
2-3
50%
5-5
42%
13-18
67%
4-2
52%
31-29
TORo6.5 57%
36-27
60%
3-2
50%
5-5
58%
19-14
67%
4-2
61%
38-24
Puck Line
cover %
 TBL-1.5 43%
26-34
20%
1-4
40%
4-6
48%
15-16
17%
1-5
+1.97u
30-30
TOR+1.5 65%
41-22
40%
2-3
50%
5-5
76%
25-8
83%
5-1
-18.72u
24-38
Moneyline
win %
 TBL fav -220 63%
38-22
20%
1-4
60%
6-4
61%
19-12
17%
1-5
-0.10u
30-18
TOR dog +170 43%
27-36
0%
0-5
30%
3-7
49%
16-17
83%
5-1
-6.03u
13-22
Period Totals grade at DK/FD line 0.5 1.5 2.5 · Hard Rock posts no period totals — DraftKings / FanDuel shown (closing)
PeriodDK / FDTeamSeasonL5L10VenueH2Hvs DK/FD CloseAvg goalsGF / GA
1st Period
over 1.5 (DraftKings)
 DK 1.5 o-145/u+114 FD 1.5 o-128/u+100 TBL 55%
33-27
40%
2-3
50%
5-5
58%
18-13
33%
2-4
55%
33-27
 2.02 1.08 / 0.93
TOR 62%
39-24
100%
5-0
60%
6-4
67%
22-11
33%
2-4
62%
39-24
 1.81 0.89 / 0.92
2nd Period
over 1.5 (DraftKings)
 DK 1.5 o-180/u+140 FD 1.5 o-180/u+140 TBL 60%
36-24
100%
5-0
80%
8-2
55%
17-14
67%
4-2
53%
32-28
 1.92 1.13 / 0.78
TOR 70%
44-19
60%
3-2
80%
8-2
67%
22-11
67%
4-2
64%
40-23
 2.13 0.94 / 1.19
3rd Period
over 2.5 (FanDuel)
 FD 2.5 o+128/u-164 TBL 32%
19-41
40%
2-3
40%
4-6
29%
9-22
67%
4-2
43%
26-34
 2.07 1.15 / 0.92
TOR 46%
29-34
40%
2-3
50%
5-5
39%
13-20
67%
4-2
51%
32-31
 2.44 1.22 / 1.22
Team Comparison '25-26
TBLTOR
Record (W-L-OTL)50-26-632-36-14
Points %64.6%47.6%
Goals for / game3.543.09
Goals against / game2.823.65
Shots for / game28.126.3
Shots against / game26.732.4
Power play %20.7%21.3%
Penalty kill %82.6%81.2%
Faceoff %47.3%54.3%
1st period GF / GA0.96 / 0.930.84 / 0.99
2nd period GF / GA1.22 / 0.840.95 / 1.23
3rd period GF / GA1.23 / 0.981.18 / 1.26
Avg game total6.356.73
Starting Goalies from the box score
27 saves on 29 shots · 2 GA · W
28 saves on 32 shots · 4 GA · L
P1P2P3OTSOGPP
TBL4010331/4
TOR1010290/3
Player Props Hard Rock lines for this game · over rates at each line
TBLPropLineSeasonL10H2HActual
Nikita Kucherov G 0.5
o+120
 48% 60% 20%1/5 0 U
Brayden Point G 0.5
o+155
 31% 60% 33%2/6 0 U
Darren Raddysh G 0.5
o+300
 26% 40% 17%1/6 0 U
Oliver Bjorkstrand G 0.5
o+240
 15% 30% 20%1/5 1 O
Anthony Cirelli G 0.5
o+325
 25% 30% 0%0/5 0 U
Brandon Hagel G 0.5
o+175
 40% 30% 0%0/6 1 O
Jake Guentzel G 0.5
o+160
 35% 20% 20%1/5 1 O
Victor Hedman G 0.5
o+850
 4% 10% 17%1/6 0 U
Yanni Gourde G 0.5
o+500
 10% 10% 0%0/4 0 U
Zemgus Girgensons G 0.5
o+550
 11% 10% 0%0/6 0 U
Erik Cernak G 0.5
o+1200
 2% 10% 0%0/4 0 U
Pontus Holmberg G 0.5
o+500
 17% 10% 0%0/2 0 U
Conor Geekie G 0.5
o+600
 0% 10% 0%0/3 0 U
Corey Perry G 0.5
o+400
 20% 0% 33%1/3 1 O
Ryan McDonagh G 0.5
o+1300
 15% 0% 0%0/5 1 O
Scott Sabourin G 0.5
o+1100
 7% 0% 0%0/1 0 U
J.J. Moser G 0.5
o+900
 9% 0% 0%0/5 0 U
Declan Carlile G 0.5
o+1300
 3% 0% — DNP
Brayden Point PTS 0.5
o-190 / u+140
 60% 80% 50%3/6 2 O
Darren Raddysh PTS 0.5
o-180 / u+135
 59% 80% 33%2/6 0 U
Jake Guentzel PTS 0.5
o-230 / u+170
 68% 70% 20%1/5 2 O
Nikita Kucherov PTS 1.5
o+100 / u-135
 57% 50% 20%1/5 4 O
Oliver Bjorkstrand PTS 0.5
o+105 / u-135
 37% 40% 40%2/5 1 O
Anthony Cirelli PTS 0.5
o+130 / u-175
 44% 40% 20%1/5 2 O
Brandon Hagel PTS 0.5
o-150 / u+115
 56% 40% 50%3/6 2 O
Victor Hedman PTS 0.5
o+170 / u-230
 46% 20% 67%4/6 0 U
Corey Perry PTS 0.5
o+165 / u-225
 44% 10% 33%1/3 1 O
Darren Raddysh A 0.5
o-115 / u-115
 48% 70% 33%2/6 0 U
Nikita Kucherov A 0.5
o-210 / u+160
 63% 60% 80%4/5 4 O
Jake Guentzel A 0.5
o-110 / u-120
 48% 60% 0%0/5 1 O
Brayden Point A 0.5
o+120 / u-160
 43% 50% 33%2/6 2 O
Anthony Cirelli A 0.5
o+240 / u-350
 31% 30% 20%1/5 2 O
Victor Hedman A 0.5
o+210 / u-300
 46% 20% 67%4/6 0 U
Oliver Bjorkstrand A 0.5
o+220 / u-300
 25% 20% 40%2/5 0 U
Brandon Hagel A 0.5
o+150 / u-200
 38% 20% 50%3/6 1 O
Corey Perry A 0.5
o+300 / u-425
 28% 10% 0%0/3 0 U
Darren Raddysh SOG 2.5
o-180 / u+135
 54% 80% 17%1/6 5 O
Jake Guentzel SOG 2.5
o-155 / u+120
 48% 60% 80%4/5 2 U
Oliver Bjorkstrand SOG 2.5
o+135 / u-180
 28% 60% 40%2/5 2 U
Yanni Gourde SOG 1.5
o+115 / u-150
 45% 50% 50%2/4 0 U
Brandon Hagel SOG 2.5
o-145 / u+110
 60% 50% 50%3/6 3 O
Victor Hedman SOG 1.5
o-120 / u-110
 46% 40% 67%4/6 2 O
Nikita Kucherov SOG 3.5
o+125 / u-165
 32% 40% 40%2/5 1 U
Brayden Point SOG 2.5
o+100 / u-135
 38% 40% 50%3/6 1 U
Anthony Cirelli SOG 1.5
o-125 / u-105
 46% 40% 100%5/5 5 O
Andrei Vasilevskiy SV 23.5
o-125 / u-105
 49% 50% 75%3/4 27 O
TORPropLineSeasonL10H2HActual
William Nylander G 0.5
o+165
 39% 50% 50%3/6 0 U
Matias Maccelli G 0.5
o+275
 21% 40% 0%0/2 1 O
John Tavares G 0.5
o+220
 32% 30% 40%2/5 0 U
Matthew Knies G 0.5
o+240
 23% 30% 83%5/6 0 U
Morgan Rielly G 0.5
o+650
 13% 20% 17%1/6 0 U
Max Domi G 0.5
o+425
 13% 10% 0%0/5 0 U
Dakota Joshua G 0.5
o+650
 17% 10% 0%0/2 0 U
Troy Stecher G 0.5
o+1200
 6% 10% 0%0/4 0 U
Nick Robertson G 0.5
o+425
 20% 10% 20%1/5 1 O
Easton Cowan G 0.5
o+425
 17% 10% 0%0/1 0 U
Oliver Ekman-Larsson G 0.5
o+750
 13% 0% 0%0/6 0 U
Calle Jarnkrok G 0.5
o+800
 15% 0% 0%0/3 0 U
Jake McCabe G 0.5
o+1000
 5% 0% 0%0/5 0 U
Brandon Carlo G 0.5
o+1400
 0% 0% 0%0/4 0 U
Steven Lorentz G 0.5
o+750
 7% 0% 0%0/6 0 U
Auston Matthews G 0.5
o+140
 39% 0% 50%3/6 0 U
Simon Benoit G 0.5
o+1750
 0% 0% 0%0/6 0 U
Jacob Quillan G 0.5
o+750
 0% — — 0 U
William Nylander PTS 0.5
o-230 / u+165
 72% 80% 67%4/6 1 O
John Tavares PTS 0.5
o-125 / u-105
 62% 70% 100%5/5 0 U
Auston Matthews PTS 0.5
o-240 / u+175
 63% 70% 100%6/6 0 U
Matias Maccelli PTS 0.5
o+120 / u-160
 44% 60% 0%0/2 1 O
Matthew Knies PTS 0.5
o-130 / u+100
 55% 50% 83%5/6 0 U
Oliver Ekman-Larsson PTS 0.5
o+175 / u-240
 44% 40% 17%1/6 0 U
Morgan Rielly PTS 0.5
o+125 / u-170
 43% 20% 67%4/6 0 U
Auston Matthews A 0.5
o-105 / u-130
 42% 70% 67%4/6 0 U
William Nylander A 0.5
o-110 / u-120
 57% 50% 33%2/6 1 O
John Tavares A 0.5
o+160 / u-220
 41% 40% 60%3/5 0 U
Oliver Ekman-Larsson A 0.5
o+220 / u-325
 38% 40% 17%1/6 0 U
Matthew Knies A 0.5
o+145 / u-195
 45% 40% 50%3/6 0 U
Matias Maccelli A 0.5
o+230 / u-325
 27% 20% 0%0/2 0 U
Morgan Rielly A 0.5
o+165 / u-225
 32% 0% 50%3/6 0 U
Morgan Rielly SOG 1.5
o-120 / u-110
 58% 70% 67%4/6 1 U
William Nylander SOG 2.5
o+110 / u-150
 39% 60% 83%5/6 2 U
Matias Maccelli SOG 1.5
o-140 / u+105
 39% 60% 50%1/2 1 U
Matthew Knies SOG 1.5
o-160 / u+120
 50% 60% 83%5/6 2 O
John Tavares SOG 2.5
o+140 / u-190
 46% 50% 60%3/5 2 U
Auston Matthews SOG 3.5
o-105 / u-125
 54% 50% 50%3/6 6 O
Anthony Stolarz SV 27.5
o-110 / u-120
 47% 40% 67%2/3 28 O
Head-to-Head last 10 meetings
DateWhereScoreP1P2P3TotalHR CloseWinner
Feb 25, 2026 at TBL TOR 2–4 0–00–22–2 6 5.5 O TBL
Dec 8, 2025 at TOR TOR 2–0 1–00–01–0 2 6.5 U TOR
Apr 9, 2025 at TBL TOR 4–3 OT 2–10–01–2 7 5.5 O TOR
Jan 20, 2025 at TOR TOR 5–3 1–02–12–2 8 — TOR
Nov 30, 2024 at TBL TOR 5–3 1–03–01–3 8 6 O TOR
Oct 21, 2024 at TOR TOR 5–2 1–14–00–1 7 6.5 O TOR
Apr 17, 2024 at TBL TOR 4–6 1–20–33–1 10 — TBL
Apr 3, 2024 at TOR TOR 1–4 1–10–20–1 5 — TBL
Nov 6, 2023 at TOR TOR 6–5 OT 1–42–02–1 11 — TOR
Oct 21, 2023 at TBL TOR 4–3 OT 1–30–02–0 7 — TOR