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← Models / Points Model — Pick History

Points Model — Pick History

Today's board · Performance

Pick History

What's listed

Every over/under pick the points model made, at the Hard Rock line closest to even money, and how it graded. Live picks are the model's last prediction before puck drop. Backtest picks replay past seasons at Hard Rock's closing line, using only information from before each game.

Columns

  • Conf — the model's probability that the pick wins. Book — Hard Rock's de-vigged probability of the same side.
  • Units — result of a flat 1-unit bet at the listed price.

Tiers

Top, strong and lean are confidence bands; a toss-up is a player the model has almost no opinion on. The default view hides toss-ups.

Settlement

Overtime counts, shootouts don't, and a player who doesn't play is a void.

Informational only. Not betting advice.

Live Backtest
Record
20667-12503
0 void · 0 pending
Accuracy
62.3%
expected 62.2%
Book favorite, same picks
62.3%
always taking Hard Rock's favored side
Units
-1,634.44u
ROI -4.9% · flat 1u
DatePlayerGamePickTierPriceConfBook PointsResultUnits
2026-11-07
Auston Matthews
 TOR vs MTL UNDER 1.5 Top -230 66.1% 65.3% 1 W +0.44
2026-11-07
Sam Malinski
 COL vs DET UNDER 0.5 Strong -250 65.9% 66.7% 0 W +0.40
2026-11-07
Frederick Gaudreau
 SEA vs NYR UNDER 0.5 Strong -230 65.9% 65.3% 0 W +0.44
2026-11-07
Philip Tomasino
 OTT vs UTA UNDER 0.5 Strong -240 65.8% 66.0% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-07
Evan Rodrigues
 NJD @ NYI UNDER 0.5 Strong -230 65.8% 64.9% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-07
Jalen Chatfield
 CAR vs CHI UNDER 0.5 Strong -230 65.7% 65.3% 0 W +0.44
2026-11-07
Andrei Svechnikov
 CAR vs CHI OVER 0.5 Strong -210 65.6% 63.3% 2 W +0.48
2026-11-07
Tony DeAngelo
 NYI vs NJD UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 65.6% 63.3% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-07
Anthony Mantha
 NJD @ NYI UNDER 0.5 Strong -240 65.5% 66.0% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-07
Emil Heineman
 NYI vs NJD UNDER 0.5 Strong -200 65.5% 62.5% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-07
Kris Letang
 PIT @ LAK UNDER 0.5 Strong -225 65.5% 64.7% 2 L -1.00
2026-11-07
Jack Hughes
 NJD @ NYI UNDER 1.5 Strong -210 65.4% 63.3% 2 L -1.00
2026-11-07
Tyler Toffoli
 SJS @ DAL UNDER 0.5 Strong -175 65.3% 59.4% 0 W +0.57
2026-11-07
Blake Coleman
 MIN vs TBL UNDER 0.5 Strong -195 65.3% 61.8% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-07
Drew Doughty
 LAK vs PIT UNDER 0.5 Strong -250 65.3% 66.7% 0 W +0.40
2026-11-07
Vladislav Gavrikov
 NYR @ SEA UNDER 0.5 Strong -250 65.1% 66.7% 0 W +0.40
2026-11-07
Wyatt Johnston
 DAL vs SJS UNDER 1.5 Strong -230 65.1% 65.3% 2 L -1.00
2026-11-07
Nikolaj Ehlers
 CAR vs CHI OVER 0.5 Strong -210 64.9% 62.9% 1 W +0.48
2026-11-07
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
 EDM vs VAN OVER 0.5 Strong -200 64.8% 62.5% 0 L -1.00
2026-11-07
Marco Rossi
 VAN @ EDM UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 64.7% 63.8% 0 W +0.48
2026-11-07
Roope Hintz
 DAL vs SJS OVER 0.5 Strong -210 64.7% 63.3% 2 W +0.48
2026-11-07
Mika Zibanejad
 NYR @ SEA OVER 0.5 Strong -200 64.7% 62.5% 2 W +0.50
2026-11-07
Nils Lundkvist
 DAL vs SJS UNDER 0.5 Strong -195 64.4% 61.8% 0 W +0.51
2026-11-07
Adam Fox
 NYR @ SEA OVER 0.5 Strong -185 64.4% 60.4% 1 W +0.54
2026-11-07
Kirill Kaprizov
 MIN vs TBL OVER 0.5 Strong -240 64.3% 66.0% 1 W +0.42
2026-11-07
Adrian Kempe
 LAK vs PIT OVER 0.5 Strong -200 64.1% 62.0% 1 W +0.50
2026-11-07
Victor Hedman
 TBL @ MIN UNDER 0.5 Strong -240 64.0% 66.0% 0 W +0.42
2026-11-07
Erik Haula
 LAK vs PIT UNDER 0.5 Strong -240 64.0% 65.6% 0 W +0.42
2026-11-07
Corey Perry
 LAK vs PIT UNDER 0.5 Strong -225 63.8% 64.7% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-07
Jackson Blake
 CAR vs CHI OVER 0.5 Strong -190 63.7% 61.6% 1 W +0.53
2026-11-07
Frank Nazar
 CHI @ CAR UNDER 0.5 Strong -190 63.7% 61.1% 0 W +0.53
2026-11-07
Quinn Hughes
 MIN vs TBL OVER 0.5 Strong -230 63.7% 65.3% 1 W +0.44
2026-11-07
Filip Forsberg
 NSH vs STL OVER 0.5 Strong -195 63.6% 61.8% 1 W +0.51
2026-11-07
Alexander Nikishin
 CAR vs CHI UNDER 0.5 Strong -200 63.6% 62.0% 2 L -1.00
2026-11-07
Nick Paul
 TOR vs MTL UNDER 0.5 Strong -195 63.6% 61.8% 0 W +0.51
2026-11-07
Sebastian Aho
 CAR vs CHI UNDER 1.5 Strong -190 63.4% 61.1% 3 L -1.00
2026-11-07
Anton Frondell
 CHI @ CAR UNDER 0.5 Strong -190 63.3% 61.1% 0 W +0.53
2026-11-07
Nick Suzuki
 MTL @ TOR UNDER 1.5 Strong -220 63.3% 64.1% 0 W +0.46
2026-11-07
Thomas Harley
 DAL vs SJS OVER 0.5 Strong -220 62.9% 64.6% 3 W +0.46
2026-11-07
K'Andre Miller
 CAR vs CHI UNDER 0.5 Strong -220 62.9% 64.1% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-07
Sean Walker
 CAR vs CHI UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 62.8% 63.3% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-07
Michael Misa
 SJS @ DAL UNDER 0.5 Strong -150 62.5% 56.3% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-07
Maxim Shabanov
 MIN vs TBL UNDER 0.5 Strong -170 62.5% 59.2% 2 L -1.00
2026-11-07
Brayden Point
 TBL @ MIN OVER 0.5 Strong -185 62.5% 60.9% 2 W +0.54
2026-11-07
Jaccob Slavin
 CAR vs CHI UNDER 0.5 Strong -190 62.4% 61.6% 0 W +0.53
2026-11-07
Alexandre Texier
 MTL @ TOR UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 62.3% 62.9% 0 W +0.48
2026-11-07
Sam Reinhart
 FLA @ WSH OVER 0.5 Strong -180 62.2% 60.2% 1 W +0.56
2026-11-07
Victor Eklund
 NYI vs NJD UNDER 0.5 Strong -175 62.0% 59.4% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-07
Connor Brown
 NJD @ NYI UNDER 0.5 Strong -195 61.9% 61.8% 0 W +0.51
2026-11-07
Macklin Celebrini
 SJS @ DAL OVER 0.5 Strong -220 61.9% 64.6% 3 W +0.46
2026-11-07
Chris Kreider
 MTL @ TOR UNDER 0.5 Strong -210 61.8% 63.3% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-07
Brandon Hagel
 TBL @ MIN OVER 0.5 Strong -160 61.8% 57.5% 0 L -1.00
2026-11-07
Gage Goncalves
 TBL @ MIN UNDER 0.5 Strong -200 61.7% 62.5% 0 W +0.50
2026-11-07
Matt Boldy
 MIN vs TBL OVER 0.5 Strong -220 61.7% 64.1% 0 L -1.00
2026-11-07
Arttu Hyry
 DAL vs SJS UNDER 0.5 Strong -190 61.7% 61.1% 0 W +0.53
2026-11-07
Matthew Wood
 SEA vs NYR UNDER 0.5 Strong -180 61.6% 60.2% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-07
Lane Hutson
 MTL @ TOR OVER 0.5 Strong -170 61.6% 58.6% 1 W +0.59
2026-11-07
Mason Marchment
 SJS @ DAL UNDER 0.5 Strong -145 61.5% 55.4% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-07
Evan Bouchard
 EDM vs VAN UNDER 1.5 Strong -135 61.4% 54.1% 1 W +0.74
2026-11-07
Oliver Bjorkstrand
 NYR @ SEA UNDER 0.5 Strong -200 61.3% 62.0% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-07
Andrew Copp
 DET @ COL UNDER 0.5 Strong -190 61.2% 61.1% 0 W +0.53
2026-11-07
Dylan Guenther
 UTA @ OTT OVER 0.5 Strong -185 61.2% 60.9% 0 L -1.00
2026-11-07
William Carrier
 CAR vs CHI UNDER 0.5 Strong -185 61.1% 60.4% 2 L -1.00
2026-11-07
Juraj Slafkovský
 MTL @ TOR OVER 0.5 Strong -170 61.1% 59.2% 0 L -1.00
2026-11-07
MacKenzie Weegar
 UTA @ OTT UNDER 0.5 Strong -180 61.0% 60.2% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-07
Anders Lee
 UTA @ OTT UNDER 0.5 Lean -175 60.9% 59.4% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-07
Alex DeBrincat
 DET @ COL OVER 0.5 Lean -190 60.9% 61.1% 0 L -1.00
2026-11-07
Ryan Shea
 EDM vs VAN UNDER 0.5 Lean -200 60.8% 62.5% 0 W +0.50
2026-11-07
Trevor Moore
 LAK vs PIT UNDER 0.5 Lean -195 60.6% 61.8% 0 W +0.51
2026-11-07
Aliaksei Protas
 WSH vs FLA UNDER 0.5 Lean -195 60.4% 61.8% 2 L -1.00
2026-11-07
Fabian Zetterlund
 OTT vs UTA UNDER 0.5 Lean -180 60.3% 60.2% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-07
Nick Schmaltz
 UTA @ OTT OVER 0.5 Lean -170 60.3% 59.2% 0 L -1.00
2026-11-07
Justin Hryckowian
 DAL vs SJS UNDER 0.5 Lean -185 60.1% 60.4% 0 W +0.54
2026-11-07
Connor McMichael
 STL @ NSH UNDER 0.5 Lean -175 60.1% 59.4% 0 W +0.57
2026-11-07
Robert Thomas
 STL @ NSH OVER 0.5 Lean -165 60.0% 58.4% 1 W +0.61
2026-11-07
Egor Chinakhov
 PIT @ LAK UNDER 0.5 Lean -180 60.0% 60.2% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-07
Sidney Crosby
 PIT @ LAK OVER 0.5 Lean -165 60.0% 58.4% 2 W +0.61
2026-11-07
Ryan O'Reilly
 NSH vs STL OVER 0.5 Lean -170 59.7% 58.6% 0 L -1.00
2026-11-07
Logan Cooley
 UTA @ OTT OVER 0.5 Lean -170 59.6% 59.2% 0 L -1.00
2026-11-07
Gavin McKenna
 TOR vs MTL UNDER 0.5 Lean -185 59.6% 60.4% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-07
Brandt Clarke
 LAK vs PIT UNDER 0.5 Lean -190 59.5% 61.1% 0 W +0.53
2026-11-07
Dougie Hamilton
 NJD @ NYI UNDER 0.5 Lean -170 59.4% 58.6% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-07
Kaapo Kakko
 SEA vs NYR UNDER 0.5 Lean -185 59.3% 60.4% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-07
Jonathan Lekkerimäki
 VAN @ EDM UNDER 0.5 Lean -160 59.2% 57.5% 0 W +0.63
2026-11-07
Kyle Palmieri
 NYI vs NJD UNDER 0.5 Lean -175 59.2% 59.4% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-07
Roman Josi
 NSH vs STL OVER 0.5 Lean -160 59.2% 57.5% 2 W +0.63
2026-11-07
Jake DeBrusk
 VAN @ EDM UNDER 0.5 Lean -170 58.9% 58.6% 0 W +0.59
2026-11-07
Mikhail Sergachev
 UTA @ OTT OVER 0.5 Lean -155 58.7% 57.2% 0 L -1.00
2026-11-07
Ryan Leonard
 WSH vs FLA UNDER 0.5 Lean -185 58.7% 60.9% 1 L -1.00
2026-11-07
Brady Tkachuk
 FLA @ WSH OVER 0.5 Lean -160 58.7% 57.5% 2 W +0.63
2026-11-07
Alexis Lafrenière
 NYR @ SEA OVER 0.5 Lean -150 58.6% 56.3% 2 W +0.67
2026-11-07
Drake Batherson
 OTT vs UTA OVER 0.5 Lean -155 58.6% 56.7% 0 L -1.00
2026-11-07
Jesper Bratt
 NJD @ NYI OVER 0.5 Lean -165 58.5% 58.4% 1 W +0.61
2026-11-07
Gabriel Landeskog
 COL vs DET UNDER 0.5 Lean -180 58.5% 60.2% 0 W +0.56
2026-11-07
Esa Lindell
 DAL vs SJS UNDER 0.5 Lean -165 58.4% 57.8% 0 W +0.61
2026-11-07
Steven Stamkos
 NSH vs STL OVER 0.5 Lean -160 58.4% 57.5% 2 W +0.63
2026-11-07
J.T. Miller
 NYR @ SEA OVER 0.5 Lean -145 58.4% 55.4% 0 L -1.00
2026-11-07
Jaden Schwartz
 COL vs DET UNDER 0.5 Lean -170 58.2% 58.6% 0 W +0.59
2026-11-07
Matthew Schaefer
 NYI vs NJD OVER 0.5 Lean -170 58.2% 58.6% 1 W +0.59
2026-11-07
Will Cuylle
 NYR @ SEA UNDER 0.5 Lean -180 58.1% 60.2% 0 W +0.56
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