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SOG Model — Pick History

Today's board · Performance

Pick History

What's listed

Every best bet and lean the shots on goal model made, with the Hard Rock line and price it was made at and how it graded. Live picks are the model's last prediction before puck drop. Backtest picks are a walk-forward simulation of past seasons priced at Hard Rock's closing line, using only information available before each game.

Columns

  • Model / Book — the model's and Hard Rock's (de-vigged) probability for the picked side.
  • EV — expected profit per unit at the price.
  • Units — result of a 1-unit bet (a win at +120 pays +1.20u, a loss is −1u, a push or void 0).
  • CLV — how far Hard Rock's de-vigged probability moved toward (+) or away from (−) the pick between the pick and the close, on the same line. Consistently positive CLV is the best early sign a model is beating the market. Backtest picks are priced at the close, so they have no CLV.

Settlement

Overtime counts, shootouts don't, and a player who doesn't play is a void.

Informational only. Not betting advice.

Live Backtest
Record
1558-1512
0 void · 0 pending
Units
+13.40u
ROI
+0.4%
expected +4.6%
Avg CLV
—
no closes yet
DatePlayerGamePickPriceModelBook EVActualResultUnitsCLV
2026-02-28
Matt Duchene
 DAL vs NSH UNDER 2.5 lean -170 65.5% 59.2% +4.0% 1 W +0.59 —
2026-02-28
Jamie Benn
 DAL vs NSH UNDER 1.5 lean +105 50.4% 45.9% +3.3% 1 W +1.05 —
2026-02-28
Matvei Gridin
 CGY @ LAK UNDER 1.5 lean +125 45.8% 41.4% +3.0% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-02-28
Marco Kasper
 DET @ CAR UNDER 1.5 lean +125 46.1% 41.4% +3.8% 2 L -1.00 —
2026-02-28
Brayden Point
 TBL vs BUF UNDER 2.5 lean +100 52.0% 46.5% +4.1% 0 W +1.00 —
2026-02-28
Ilya Mikheyev
 CHI @ COL OVER 1.5 lean +140 43.1% 39.1% +3.5% 1 L -1.00 —
2026-02-28
Kiefer Sherwood
 SJS vs EDM UNDER 2.5 lean +100 51.9% 46.5% +3.8% 5 L -1.00 —
2026-02-28
Viktor Arvidsson
 BOS @ PHI UNDER 2.5 lean -115 55.1% 50.0% +3.1% 2 W +0.87 —
2026-02-28
David Pastrnak
 BOS @ PHI UNDER 3.5 lean +110 48.6% 44.3% +2.1% 2 W +1.10 —
2026-02-27
Logan Stanley
 WPG @ ANA UNDER 1.5 best -110 56.5% 49.0% +7.9% 2 L -1.00 —
2026-02-27
Cutter Gauthier
 ANA vs WPG UNDER 3.5 lean -135 58.8% 53.5% +2.4% 2 W +0.74 —
2026-02-27
Matthew Tkachuk
 FLA vs BUF UNDER 2.5 lean +135 43.6% 39.8% +2.3% 5 L -1.00 —
2026-02-26
Sam Rinzel
 CHI @ NSH UNDER 1.5 lean +145 42.6% 38.2% +4.3% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-02-26
Dougie Hamilton
 NJD @ PIT UNDER 2.5 lean +120 46.9% 42.8% +3.3% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-02-25
Matt Duchene
 DAL vs SEA UNDER 1.5 lean +140 43.2% 39.1% +3.7% 1 W +1.40 —
2026-02-25
Darren Raddysh
 TBL vs TOR UNDER 2.5 lean +120 46.4% 42.8% +2.0% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-02-03
Alex Ovechkin
 WSH @ PHI UNDER 2.5 lean +120 46.9% 42.5% +3.2% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-02-03
Connor Brown
 NJD vs CBJ UNDER 1.5 lean +125 46.4% 41.4% +4.3% 2 L -1.00 —
2026-02-03
Dougie Hamilton
 NJD vs CBJ UNDER 3.5 lean -150 61.8% 56.3% +3.0% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-01-31
Jake DeBrusk
 VAN vs TOR UNDER 2.5 best +115 49.3% 43.4% +6.1% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-01-31
Clayton Keller
 UTA vs DAL OVER 2.5 lean +110 48.6% 44.6% +2.1% 0 L -1.00 —
2026-01-31
Ryan O'Reilly
 NSH @ NYI OVER 1.5 lean -130 57.9% 53.1% +2.4% 1 L -1.00 —
2026-01-31
Dougie Hamilton
 NJD @ OTT UNDER 2.5 lean +100 52.3% 46.5% +4.5% 7 L -1.00 —
2026-01-31
Josh Doan
 BUF vs MTL OVER 1.5 lean -120 55.9% 51.0% +2.4% 3 W +0.83 —
2026-01-31
John Klingberg
 SJS @ CGY UNDER 1.5 lean +105 50.0% 45.9% +2.5% 2 L -1.00 —
2026-01-31
Matthew Tkachuk
 FLA vs WPG UNDER 2.5 lean +120 46.8% 42.8% +2.9% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-01-31
Egor Chinakhov
 PIT vs NYR UNDER 1.5 lean +145 41.8% 38.2% +2.4% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-01-31
Sam Malinski
 COL @ DET UNDER 2.5 lean -145 61.6% 55.4% +4.0% 2 W +0.69 —
2026-01-31
Owen Tippett
 PHI vs LAK UNDER 2.5 lean -105 52.4% 47.5% +2.2% 2 W +0.95 —
2026-01-30
Sean Monahan
 CBJ @ CHI OVER 1.5 lean +125 46.2% 41.7% +4.0% 3 W +1.25 —
2026-01-29
Jared McCann
 SEA vs TOR UNDER 2.5 best +130 47.3% 40.9% +8.7% 1 W +1.30 —
2026-01-29
Dougie Hamilton
 NJD vs NSH UNDER 2.5 best +110 50.5% 44.6% +6.0% 5 L -1.00 —
2026-01-29
Cutter Gauthier
 ANA @ VAN UNDER 3.5 lean -135 59.3% 53.5% +3.2% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-01-29
Connor Bedard
 CHI @ PIT UNDER 2.5 lean +135 44.2% 39.8% +3.9% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-01-29
Kris Letang
 PIT vs CHI OVER 1.5 lean -115 54.7% 50.0% +2.3% 3 W +0.87 —
2026-01-29
Jakob Chychrun
 WSH @ DET UNDER 2.5 lean +130 44.7% 40.9% +2.8% 1 W +1.30 —
2026-01-29
Alex Ovechkin
 WSH @ DET UNDER 2.5 lean +135 44.1% 39.8% +3.6% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-01-29
Sam Malinski
 COL @ MTL UNDER 2.5 lean -170 65.6% 59.2% +4.1% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-01-27
Jake DeBrusk
 VAN vs SJS UNDER 2.5 best +120 48.6% 42.2% +7.0% 2 W +1.20 —
2026-01-27
Dougie Hamilton
 NJD vs WPG UNDER 2.5 best +115 50.6% 43.7% +8.8% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-01-27
Macklin Celebrini
 SJS @ VAN UNDER 3.5 lean +105 51.1% 45.5% +4.7% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-01-27
Joel Eriksson Ek
 MIN vs CHI UNDER 2.5 lean +135 44.5% 39.8% +4.7% 2 W +1.35 —
2026-01-27
Alex Laferriere
 LAK @ DET UNDER 2.5 lean +100 51.1% 46.5% +2.3% 1 W +1.00 —
2026-01-26
Jackson LaCombe
 ANA @ EDM OVER 1.5 lean +115 48.5% 43.4% +4.2% 1 L -1.00 —
2026-01-25
Cutter Gauthier
 ANA @ CGY UNDER 3.5 lean -130 59.2% 53.1% +4.8% 2 W +0.77 —
2026-01-25
Matthew Tkachuk
 FLA @ CHI UNDER 2.5 lean +105 49.8% 45.9% +2.0% 1 W +1.05 —
2026-01-25
Andre Burakovsky
 CHI vs FLA OVER 1.5 lean +110 49.4% 44.6% +3.8% 0 L -1.00 —
2026-01-25
Kris Letang
 PIT @ VAN OVER 1.5 lean +105 50.9% 45.5% +4.3% 1 L -1.00 —
2026-01-25
Rasmus Andersson
 VGK @ OTT OVER 1.5 lean -110 53.9% 49.0% +2.9% 2 W +0.91 —
2026-01-25
Victor Olofsson
 COL @ TOR UNDER 2.5 lean -165 64.0% 58.4% +2.8% 2 W +0.61 —
2026-01-24
Dylan Larkin
 DET @ WPG UNDER 2.5 lean +105 49.9% 45.5% +2.3% 1 W +1.05 —
2026-01-24
Brandon Hagel
 TBL @ CBJ UNDER 2.5 lean +130 44.5% 40.6% +2.4% 2 W +1.30 —
2026-01-23
Cutter Gauthier
 ANA @ SEA UNDER 3.5 best -140 61.3% 54.5% +5.0% 7 L -1.00 —
2026-01-23
Sam Malinski
 COL vs PHI UNDER 1.5 best +145 43.7% 38.2% +7.0% 2 L -1.00 —
2026-01-23
Victor Olofsson
 COL vs PHI UNDER 1.5 best +145 44.6% 38.2% +9.2% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-01-23
Ryan Donato
 CHI vs TBL OVER 1.5 best +155 42.2% 36.7% +7.7% 0 L -1.00 —
2026-01-23
Andre Burakovsky
 CHI vs TBL OVER 1.5 best +120 47.8% 42.5% +5.3% 4 W +1.20 —
2026-01-23
Jackson LaCombe
 ANA @ SEA OVER 1.5 lean -105 52.8% 48.0% +3.0% 1 L -1.00 —
2026-01-23
Brandon Montour
 SEA vs ANA UNDER 2.5 lean +105 50.5% 45.5% +3.6% 2 W +1.05 —
2026-01-23
William Eklund
 SJS vs NYR OVER 2.5 lean +145 41.9% 38.2% +2.7% 2 L -1.00 —
2026-01-23
Brent Burns
 COL vs PHI UNDER 2.5 lean -180 66.3% 60.2% +3.1% 1 W +0.56 —
2026-01-23
Jimmy Snuggerud
 STL @ DAL UNDER 2.5 lean -135 59.6% 53.5% +3.8% 0 W +0.74 —
2026-01-22
Matthew Tkachuk
 FLA @ WPG UNDER 2.5 best +120 48.4% 42.8% +6.5% 1 W +1.20 —
2026-01-22
Joel Eriksson Ek
 MIN vs DET UNDER 2.5 lean +120 46.8% 42.8% +3.0% 5 L -1.00 —
2026-01-22
Dylan Larkin
 DET @ MIN UNDER 2.5 lean +110 48.6% 44.6% +2.1% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-01-22
Josh Morrissey
 WPG vs FLA OVER 1.5 lean -115 55.5% 50.0% +3.7% 2 W +0.87 —
2026-01-22
Alexander Nikishin
 CAR vs CHI UNDER 1.5 lean +105 50.4% 45.5% +3.4% 1 W +1.05 —
2026-01-22
Andre Burakovsky
 CHI @ CAR OVER 1.5 lean +130 44.5% 40.9% +2.4% 1 L -1.00 —
2026-01-21
Dylan Larkin
 DET @ TOR UNDER 2.5 best +120 48.4% 42.8% +6.4% 5 L -1.00 —
2026-01-21
Brandon Montour
 SEA vs NYI UNDER 2.5 lean +100 51.0% 46.9% +2.0% 2 W +1.00 —
2026-01-21
Yegor Sharangovich
 CGY vs PIT UNDER 1.5 lean +145 41.7% 38.2% +2.1% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-01-21
Brett Kulak
 PIT @ CGY UNDER 1.5 lean -105 53.1% 48.0% +3.7% 0 W +0.95 —
2026-01-21
Sam Malinski
 COL vs ANA UNDER 1.5 lean +145 42.3% 38.2% +3.6% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-01-21
Jackson LaCombe
 ANA @ COL OVER 1.5 lean +105 49.8% 45.5% +2.1% 1 L -1.00 —
2026-01-21
Ross Colton
 COL vs ANA UNDER 2.5 lean -150 61.4% 56.3% +2.3% 5 L -1.00 —
2026-01-21
Victor Olofsson
 COL vs ANA UNDER 1.5 lean +120 47.0% 42.5% +3.4% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-01-20
Evan Bouchard
 EDM vs NJD OVER 2.5 lean +125 45.8% 41.4% +3.1% 1 L -1.00 —
2026-01-20
Matt Duchene
 DAL vs BOS UNDER 1.5 lean +120 46.9% 42.5% +3.1% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-01-20
Brady Tkachuk
 OTT @ CBJ UNDER 3.5 lean +115 47.5% 43.7% +2.0% 1 W +1.15 —
2026-01-20
Vladimir Tarasenko
 MIN @ MTL UNDER 1.5 lean +135 44.4% 39.6% +4.3% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-01-19
Cutter Gauthier
 ANA vs NYR UNDER 2.5 lean +125 45.6% 41.7% +2.5% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-01-19
Jack Hughes
 NJD @ CGY OVER 3.5 lean +120 47.0% 42.8% +3.4% 7 W +1.20 —
2026-01-19
Vladimir Tarasenko
 MIN @ TOR UNDER 2.5 lean -195 68.4% 61.8% +3.4% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-01-19
Anton Lundell
 FLA vs SJS OVER 2.5 lean +135 43.6% 39.8% +2.5% 6 W +1.35 —
2026-01-19
Sam Malinski
 COL vs WSH UNDER 1.5 lean +130 45.3% 40.9% +4.1% 5 L -1.00 —
2026-01-19
John Carlson
 WSH @ COL OVER 1.5 lean -115 55.2% 50.0% +3.2% 0 L -1.00 —
2026-01-18
Brandon Hagel
 TBL @ DAL UNDER 2.5 best +130 45.8% 40.9% +5.4% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-01-18
Jack Roslovic
 EDM vs STL UNDER 1.5 lean +145 41.8% 38.2% +2.3% 2 L -1.00 —
2026-01-17
Jakob Chychrun
 WSH vs FLA UNDER 2.5 lean +120 46.4% 42.5% +2.1% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-01-17
Sam Reinhart
 FLA @ WSH UNDER 2.5 lean +120 47.0% 42.8% +3.4% 4 L -1.00 —
2026-01-17
Sidney Crosby
 PIT vs CBJ OVER 2.5 lean +110 49.0% 44.6% +3.0% 3 W +1.10 —
2026-01-17
Owen Power
 BUF vs MIN OVER 1.5 lean +115 47.8% 43.4% +2.8% 0 L -1.00 —
2026-01-17
Kirill Kaprizov
 MIN @ BUF UNDER 3.5 lean -105 52.9% 48.0% +3.3% 3 W +0.95 —
2026-01-16
Brandon Hagel
 TBL @ STL UNDER 2.5 best +120 48.6% 42.8% +7.0% 3 L -1.00 —
2026-01-16
Ryan O'Reilly
 NSH @ COL OVER 1.5 lean -105 52.6% 48.0% +2.6% 6 W +0.95 —
2026-01-15
Evan Bouchard
 EDM vs NYI OVER 2.5 lean +120 47.2% 42.5% +3.7% 6 W +1.20 —
2026-01-15
Clayton Keller
 UTA vs DAL OVER 2.5 lean +100 51.0% 46.9% +2.1% 3 W +1.00 —
2026-01-15
Josh Morrissey
 WPG @ MIN OVER 1.5 lean -130 58.0% 53.1% +2.5% 2 W +0.77 —
2026-01-13
Josh Morrissey
 WPG vs NYI OVER 1.5 best -115 56.3% 50.0% +5.3% 4 W +0.87 —
2026-01-13
Connor McDavid
 EDM @ NSH UNDER 3.5 best +115 49.4% 43.7% +6.2% 3 W +1.15 —
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