← Stats / TOR @ BUF

TOR @ BUF

Saturday, March 14, 2026 · 6:00 PM CT

How the Matchup Page Works

Lines

Before puck drop the page uses Hard Rock Bet's latest moneyline, puck line and total; once the game is final it switches to Hard Rock's closing line so you can see how each bet graded. Hard Rock only — no other sportsbook is shown. Hard Rock doesn't post period totals to our feed, so the period table shows DraftKings and FanDuel lines (labelled DK / FD) and grades at DraftKings' number (FanDuel's if DraftKings has none, 1.5 if neither has posted); the 0.5 / 1.5 / 2.5 chips grade at a fixed line instead. vs DK/FD Close is each team's record against past games' DraftKings (else FanDuel) closing period total.

Betting trends

Each team's hit rate at tonight's number: Season (last season until 5 games are played), L5 / L10, Venue (home games for the home team, road games for the visitor) and H2H (meetings this season and last). vs HR Close is the record against each past game's own Hard Rock closing line (moneyline: in the role — favorite or underdog — the team has tonight). Trends only use games played before this one.

Totals and puck lines are graded on the official final score (overtime counts; the shootout winner gets one goal). Period totals use regulation goals of that period only.

Props, goalies, H2H

Player props lists every Hard Rock line for this game with Season / L10 / H2H over rates at that line; after the game the actual stat is shown. Goalies shows each team's most recent starter as the probable starter (confirmed starters are not published in advance). Head-to-head lists recent meetings with period scores and how the Hard Rock closing total graded.

Informational only. Not betting advice.

Toronto Maple Leafs
32-36-14 · Away
2 – 3
FINAL / SO
Buffalo Sabres
50-23-9 · Home
Hard Rock Lines Hard Rock closing line
Moneyline
TOR +190 · BUF -250
Puck Line
TOR +1.5 (-115) · BUF -1.5 (-105)
Total
O 6.5 (-120) · U (+100)

Graded: total 5 → OVER L · BUF -1.5 L

Betting Trends Season
MarketTeamLineSeasonL5L10VenueH2Hvs HR Close
Game Total
Over 6.5
 TORo6.5 58%
38-28
80%
4-1
60%
6-4
55%
17-14
83%
5-1
62%
40-25
BUFo6.5 47%
31-35
40%
2-3
40%
4-6
49%
16-17
83%
5-1
48%
31-34
Puck Line
cover %
 TOR+1.5 64%
42-24
40%
2-3
40%
4-6
52%
16-15
67%
4-2
-18.92u
25-40
BUF-1.5 42%
28-38
40%
2-3
30%
3-7
49%
16-17
33%
2-4
+8.30u
38-27
Moneyline
win %
 TOR dog +190 42%
28-38
20%
1-4
20%
2-8
36%
11-20
67%
4-2
-8.03u
13-24
BUF fav -250 61%
40-26
80%
4-1
80%
8-2
64%
21-12
33%
2-4
+2.66u
19-11
Period Totals grade at DK/FD line 0.5 1.5 2.5 · Hard Rock posts no period totals — DraftKings / FanDuel shown (closing)
PeriodDK / FDTeamSeasonL5L10VenueH2Hvs DK/FD CloseAvg goalsGF / GA
1st Period
over 1.5 (DraftKings)
 DK 1.5 o-160/u+124 FD 1.5 o-142/u+112 TOR 64%
42-24
100%
5-0
80%
8-2
58%
18-13
83%
5-1
64%
42-24
 1.88 0.88 / 1.00
BUF 58%
38-28
40%
2-3
40%
4-6
52%
17-16
83%
5-1
58%
38-28
 1.97 1.05 / 0.92
2nd Period
over 2.5 (DraftKings)
 DK 2.5 o+140/u-180 FD 1.5 o-200/u+154 TOR 39%
26-40
20%
1-4
30%
3-7
36%
11-20
33%
2-4
62%
41-25
 2.09 0.94 / 1.15
BUF 32%
21-45
80%
4-1
50%
5-5
39%
13-20
33%
2-4
56%
37-29
 2.15 1.26 / 0.89
3rd Period
over 2.5 (FanDuel)
 FD 2.5 o+114/u-146 TOR 46%
30-36
40%
2-3
50%
5-5
52%
16-15
33%
2-4
50%
33-33
 2.44 1.23 / 1.21
BUF 36%
24-42
40%
2-3
40%
4-6
39%
13-20
33%
2-4
42%
27-37
 2.21 1.12 / 1.09
Team Comparison '25-26
TORBUF
Record (W-L-OTL)32-36-1450-23-9
Points %47.6%66.5%
Goals for / game3.093.51
Goals against / game3.652.94
Shots for / game26.328.1
Shots against / game32.429.1
Power play %21.3%19.5%
Penalty kill %81.2%81.9%
Faceoff %54.3%45.9%
1st period GF / GA0.84 / 0.991.02 / 0.94
2nd period GF / GA0.95 / 1.231.16 / 0.88
3rd period GF / GA1.18 / 1.261.23 / 1.01
Avg game total6.736.45
Starting Goalies from the box score
31 saves on 33 shots · 2 GA · OTL
BUF · Alex Lyon
16 saves on 18 shots · 2 GA · W
P1P2P3OTSOGPP
TOR1100180/2
BUF1100331/4
Player Props Hard Rock lines for this game · over rates at each line
TORPropLineSeasonL10H2HActual
William Nylander G 0.5
o+140
 41% 50% 50%2/4 0 U
Matias Maccelli G 0.5
o+260
 24% 50% 20%1/5 0 U
John Tavares G 0.5
o+175
 32% 40% 33%2/6 0 U
Matthew Knies G 0.5
o+210
 24% 40% 17%1/6 0 U
Morgan Rielly G 0.5
o+650
 13% 10% 0%0/5 0 U
Dakota Joshua G 0.5
o+650
 16% 10% 67%2/3 1 O
Nick Robertson G 0.5
o+325
 21% 10% 80%4/5 0 U
Easton Cowan G 0.5
o+300
 16% 10% 0%0/3 0 U
Oliver Ekman-Larsson G 0.5
o+750
 13% 0% 0%0/5 0 U
Calle Jarnkrok G 0.5
o+750
 14% 0% 0%0/4 0 U
Jake McCabe G 0.5
o+1100
 5% 0% 0%0/5 0 U
Max Domi G 0.5
o+400
 13% 0% 50%3/6 1 O
Brandon Carlo G 0.5
o+1200
 0% 0% 0%0/5 0 U
Philippe Myers G 0.5
o+1600
 0% 0% 0%0/4 0 U
Simon Benoit G 0.5
o+1750
 0% 0% 0%0/6 0 U
Bo Groulx G 0.5
o+575
 50% — — 0 U
Jacob Quillan G 0.5
o+750
 0% — — 0 U
John Tavares PTS 0.5
o-170 / u+125
 61% 70% 83%5/6 0 U
Matias Maccelli PTS 0.5
o-115 / u-115
 46% 70% 40%2/5 0 U
Matthew Knies PTS 0.5
o-170 / u+125
 54% 60% 67%4/6 1 O
Easton Cowan PTS 0.5
o+130 / u-175
 40% 40% 67%2/3 0 U
Oliver Ekman-Larsson PTS 0.5
o+135 / u-180
 42% 30% 60%3/5 0 U
William Nylander PTS 1.5
o+160 / u-220
 39% 20% 25%1/4 1 U
Morgan Rielly PTS 0.5
o+160 / u-220
 41% 10% 20%1/5 0 U
Max Domi PTS 0.5
o+145 / u-200
 34% 10% 50%3/6 1 O
William Nylander A 0.5
o-130 / u+100
 57% 50% 50%2/4 1 O
Matthew Knies A 0.5
o+115 / u-150
 44% 50% 50%3/6 1 O
John Tavares A 0.5
o+130 / u-175
 41% 40% 67%4/6 0 U
Oliver Ekman-Larsson A 0.5
o+170 / u-230
 36% 30% 60%3/5 0 U
Matias Maccelli A 0.5
o+160 / u-220
 27% 30% 20%1/5 0 U
Easton Cowan A 0.5
o+250 / u-375
 24% 30% 67%2/3 0 U
Max Domi A 0.5
o+250 / u-375
 27% 10% 50%3/6 0 U
Morgan Rielly A 0.5
o+220 / u-300
 30% 0% 20%1/5 0 U
William Nylander SOG 2.5
o-155 / u+120
 41% 60% 50%2/4 2 U
Morgan Rielly SOG 1.5
o+100 / u-135
 56% 50% 40%2/5 1 U
Nick Robertson SOG 1.5
o-155 / u+115
 44% 50% 20%1/5 1 U
Matias Maccelli SOG 1.5
o-150 / u+115
 36% 50% 60%3/5 2 O
Matthew Knies SOG 1.5
o-180 / u+135
 49% 50% 67%4/6 0 U
John Tavares SOG 2.5
o-135 / u+105
 46% 40% 50%3/6 0 U
Oliver Ekman-Larsson SOG 1.5
o-115 / u-115
 39% 40% 60%3/5 1 U
Easton Cowan SOG 1.5
o-130 / u+100
 48% 40% 0%0/3 1 U
Joseph Woll SV 27.5
o-130 / u-105
 57% 70% 0%0/1 31 O
BUFPropLineSeasonL10H2HActual
Jason Zucker G 0.5
o+200
 36% 50% 0%0/6 0 U
Alex Tuch G 0.5
o+145
 39% 50% 50%3/6 0 U
Tage Thompson G 0.5
o+115
 46% 50% 50%3/6 0 U
Sam Carrick G 0.5
o+600
 9% 30% 0%0/4 0 U
Beck Malenstyn G 0.5
o+750
 9% 20% 0%0/5 0 U
Josh Norris G 0.5
o+240
 25% 20% 100%1/1 0 U
Rasmus Dahlin G 0.5
o+350
 16% 20% 20%1/5 0 U
Peyton Krebs G 0.5
o+450
 14% 20% 0%0/6 0 U
Josh Doan G 0.5
o+225
 26% 20% 25%1/4 0 U
Owen Power G 0.5
o+600
 9% 20% 20%1/5 1 O
Logan Stanley G 0.5
o+850
 15% 10% 0%0/3 0 U
Ryan McLeod G 0.5
o+350
 17% 10% 0%0/6 0 U
Jack Quinn G 0.5
o+260
 17% 10% 33%2/6 1 O
Zach Benson G 0.5
o+400
 14% 10% 0%0/6 0 U
Bowen Byram G 0.5
o+575
 14% 0% 17%1/6 0 U
Noah Ostlund G 0.5
o+375
 15% 0% 0%0/4 0 U
Alex Tuch PTS 0.5
o-175 / u+130
 67% 70% 50%3/6 0 U
Ryan McLeod PTS 0.5
o-115 / u-115
 55% 60% 50%3/6 1 O
Rasmus Dahlin PTS 0.5
o-195 / u+145
 61% 60% 60%3/5 0 U
Bowen Byram PTS 0.5
o+120 / u-155
 42% 60% 50%3/6 0 U
Jason Zucker PTS 0.5
o-120 / u-110
 53% 50% 17%1/6 0 U
Josh Norris PTS 0.5
o-105 / u-125
 64% 50% 100%1/1 0 U
Owen Power PTS 0.5
o+170 / u-230
 34% 50% 40%2/5 1 O
Noah Ostlund PTS 0.5
o+145 / u-195
 37% 50% 0%0/4 1 O
Peyton Krebs PTS 0.5
o+170 / u-230
 36% 40% 33%2/6 0 U
Jack Quinn PTS 0.5
o+100 / u-135
 46% 40% 33%2/6 1 O
Josh Doan PTS 0.5
o+105 / u-135
 49% 40% 50%2/4 0 U
Tage Thompson PTS 1.5
o+175 / u-240
 26% 20% 50%3/6 0 U
Rasmus Dahlin A 0.5
o-135 / u+105
 55% 60% 60%3/5 0 U
Bowen Byram A 0.5
o+155 / u-210
 33% 60% 33%2/6 0 U
Ryan McLeod A 0.5
o+135 / u-185
 44% 50% 50%3/6 1 O
Noah Ostlund A 0.5
o+250 / u-350
 22% 50% 0%0/4 1 O
Tage Thompson A 0.5
o+100 / u-135
 42% 40% 50%3/6 0 U
Josh Norris A 0.5
o+185 / u-250
 46% 40% 0%0/1 0 U
Jack Quinn A 0.5
o+200 / u-275
 36% 40% 0%0/6 0 U
Owen Power A 0.5
o+230 / u-325
 26% 40% 40%2/5 0 U
Alex Tuch A 0.5
o+145 / u-200
 38% 30% 17%1/6 0 U
Peyton Krebs A 0.5
o+275 / u-400
 29% 30% 33%2/6 0 U
Jason Zucker A 0.5
o+190 / u-260
 28% 20% 17%1/6 0 U
Josh Doan A 0.5
o+230 / u-325
 29% 20% 25%1/4 0 U
Josh Doan SOG 2.5
o+135 / u-180
 41% 60% 50%2/4 3 O
Alex Tuch SOG 2.5
o+100 / u-130
 36% 50% 17%1/6 5 O
Josh Norris SOG 1.5
o-110 / u-120
 50% 50% 0%0/1 2 O
Bowen Byram SOG 1.5
o+100 / u-135
 39% 50% 50%3/6 1 U
Jack Quinn SOG 2.5
o+110 / u-145
 33% 50% 33%2/6 2 U
Owen Power SOG 1.5
o-105 / u-125
 48% 50% 80%4/5 1 U
Zach Benson SOG 1.5
o+105 / u-140
 51% 50% 17%1/6 1 U
Jason Zucker SOG 2.5
o+130 / u-175
 38% 40% 33%2/6 1 U
Tage Thompson SOG 3.5
o-120 / u-110
 49% 40% 50%3/6 4 O
Ryan McLeod SOG 1.5
o+105 / u-135
 39% 40% 17%1/6 2 O
Noah Ostlund SOG 1.5
o+130 / u-175
 28% 40% 25%1/4 0 U
Rasmus Dahlin SOG 2.5
o-105 / u-130
 47% 10% 60%3/5 3 O
Alex Lyon SV 23.5
o-120 / u-110
 76% 80% 100%1/1 16 U

Open in Prop Finder →

Head-to-Head last 10 meetings
DateWhereScoreP1P2P3TotalHR CloseWinner
Jan 27, 2026 at TOR BUF 7–4 3–21–13–1 11 6.5 O BUF
Oct 25, 2025 at TOR BUF 3–4 OT 1–11–11–1 7 6.5 O TOR
Oct 24, 2025 at BUF BUF 5–3 2–22–01–1 8 6.5 O BUF
Apr 15, 2025 at BUF BUF 0–4 0–00–10–3 4 6.5 U TOR
Dec 20, 2024 at BUF BUF 3–6 0–22–31–1 9 6 O TOR
Dec 15, 2024 at TOR BUF 3–5 2–11–30–1 8 6 O TOR
Mar 30, 2024 at BUF BUF 0–3 0–10–10–1 3 — TOR
Mar 6, 2024 at TOR BUF 1–2 OT 0–01–10–0 3 — TOR
Dec 21, 2023 at BUF BUF 9–3 3–23–13–0 12 — BUF
Nov 4, 2023 at TOR BUF 6–4 1–12–13–2 10 — BUF