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← Stats / TOR @ BUF

TOR @ BUF

Saturday, February 27, 2027 · 6:00 PM CT

How the Matchup Page Works

Lines

Before puck drop the page uses Hard Rock Bet's latest moneyline, puck line and total; once the game is final it switches to Hard Rock's closing line so you can see how each bet graded. Hard Rock only — no other sportsbook is shown. Hard Rock doesn't post period totals to our feed, so the period table shows DraftKings and FanDuel lines (labelled DK / FD) and grades at DraftKings' number (FanDuel's if DraftKings has none, 1.5 if neither has posted); the 0.5 / 1.5 / 2.5 chips grade at a fixed line instead. vs DK/FD Close is each team's record against past games' DraftKings (else FanDuel) closing period total.

Betting trends

Each team's hit rate at tonight's number: Season (last season until 5 games are played), L5 / L10, Venue (home games for the home team, road games for the visitor) and H2H (meetings this season and last). vs HR Close is the record against each past game's own Hard Rock closing line (moneyline: in the role — favorite or underdog — the team has tonight). Trends only use games played before this one.

Totals and puck lines are graded on the official final score (overtime counts; the shootout winner gets one goal). Period totals use regulation goals of that period only.

Props, goalies, H2H

Player props lists every Hard Rock line for this game with Season / L10 / H2H over rates at that line; after the game the actual stat is shown. Goalies shows each team's starter from ESPN's probable-goalie report: Confirmed once the team or a beat reporter confirms it, Expected before that, refreshed every 30 minutes on game days. With no report yet it falls back to the team's most recent starter (Last start). After the game it shows the real starters from the box score. Injuries lists both teams' players on ESPN's injury report (Day-To-Day, Out, Injured Reserve) before puck drop. Head-to-head lists recent meetings with period scores and how the Hard Rock closing total graded.

Informational only. Not betting advice.

Toronto Maple Leafs
7-5-2 · Away
6:00 PM CT
Buffalo Sabres
4-4-3 · Home
Hard Rock Lines Hard Rock hasn't posted this game yet
Moneyline
TOR — · BUF —
Puck Line
—
Total
—
Betting Trends Season
MarketTeamLineSeasonL5L10VenueH2Hvs HR Close
Puck Line
cover %
 TOR+1.5 86%
12-2
80%
4-1
80%
8-2
83%
5-1
60%
3-2
+0.47u
9-5
BUF-1.5 9%
1-10
0%
0-5
10%
1-9
17%
1-5
40%
2-3
-2.18u
5-6
Moneyline
win %
 TOR — 50%
7-7
80%
4-1
50%
5-5
50%
3-3
20%
1-4
+0.34u
7-7
BUF — 36%
4-7
20%
1-4
40%
4-6
50%
3-3
80%
4-1
-3.79u
4-7
Period Totals grade at DK/FD line 0.5 1.5 2.5 · Hard Rock posts no period totals — DraftKings / FanDuel shown
PeriodDK / FDTeamSeasonL5L10VenueH2Hvs DK/FD CloseAvg goalsGF / GA
1st Period
over 1.5
 no DK/FD line TOR 64%
9-5
60%
3-2
60%
6-4
67%
4-2
100%
5-0
62%
8-5
 2.00 0.93 / 1.07
BUF 82%
9-2
100%
5-0
80%
8-2
67%
4-2
100%
5-0
82%
9-2
 2.36 0.91 / 1.45
2nd Period
over 1.5
 no DK/FD line TOR 71%
10-4
80%
4-1
80%
8-2
100%
6-0
100%
5-0
62%
8-5
 2.79 1.57 / 1.21
BUF 91%
10-1
80%
4-1
90%
9-1
83%
5-1
100%
5-0
82%
9-2
 2.27 0.64 / 1.64
3rd Period
over 1.5
 no DK/FD line TOR 71%
10-4
100%
5-0
90%
9-1
83%
5-1
80%
4-1
15%
2-11
 2.00 1.14 / 0.86
BUF 55%
6-5
40%
2-3
50%
5-5
50%
3-3
80%
4-1
0%
0-11
 1.45 1.09 / 0.36
Team Comparison '26-27
TORBUF
Record (W-L-OTL)7-5-24-4-3
Points %57.1%50.0%
Goals for / game3.712.82
Goals against / game3.293.73
Shots for / game28.626.4
Shots against / game30.326.5
Power play %28.9%10.5%
Penalty kill %93.6%69.2%
Faceoff %52.4%48.1%
1st period GF / GA0.93 / 1.070.91 / 1.45
2nd period GF / GA1.57 / 1.210.64 / 1.64
3rd period GF / GA1.14 / 0.861.09 / 0.36
Avg game total7.006.55
Probable Goalies ESPN confirmed / expected, else last starter
TOR · Sergei Bobrovsky Last start
Last start Oct 26 · 9 GS · SV% .897 · GAA 3.09
BUF · Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen Last start
Last start Oct 24 · 8 GS · SV% .866 · GAA 3.56
Player Props Hard Rock lines for this game · over rates at each line

No Hard Rock player lines for this game yet — they usually post the morning of game day.

Injuries ESPN injury report
TORStatusNote
Kirill Marchenko OUT Lower Body out
Nick Blankenburg IR Upper Body Blankenburg (undisclosed) was placed on injured reserve by the Maple Leafs on Friday, David Alter of The Hockey News reports.
Marshall Rifai IR Lower Body ir
John Tavares IR Lower Body ir
Dakota Joshua IR Abdomen Joshua (abdomen) was sent to AHL Toronto on Friday for a conditioning stint.
Miles Wood IR Undisclosed ir
Chris Tanev IR Upper Body The Maple Leafs announced Thursday that Tanev (lower body) is considered week-to-week, Mark Masters of TSN reports.
Max Domi IR Back Domi (back) was transferred from the non-roster list to long-term injured reserve Wednesday, per PuckPedia.
Cade Webber IR Elbow ir-nr
Elvis Merzlikins IR Shoulder Merzlikins is expected to miss 4-6 months to begin the 2026-27 regular season while recovering from a shoulder injury, per Luke Fox of Sportsnet.
William Villeneuve IR Knee ir-nr
BUFStatusNote
Justin Danforth DTD Upper Body day-to-day
Jiri Kulich OUT Concussion Kulich has been placed in concussion protocol, per Rachel Lenzi of The Buffalo News on Monday.
Sam Carrick IR Upper Body ir
Alex Lyon IR Upper Body Lyon (upper body) had a setback in his recovery and is without a timeline to return, the team announced Thursday.
Matt Grzelcyk IR Lower Body Grzelcyk (lower body) suffered a "flare-up" and could be out for at least "a few days," head coach Lindy Ruff told Rachel Lenzi of The Buffalo News on Tuesday.
Conor Timmins IR Lower Body Timmins (lower body) doesn't have a timeline for his return yet, according to Heather Engel of NHL.com on Tuesday.
Jack Rathbone IR Undisclosed ir-nr
Head-to-Head last 10 meetings
DateWhereScoreP1P2P3TotalHR CloseWinner
Oct 15, 2026 at TOR BUF 5–4 OT 1–21–22–0 9 6.5 O BUF
Mar 14, 2026 at BUF BUF 3–2 SO 1–11–10–0 5 6.5 U BUF
Jan 27, 2026 at TOR BUF 7–4 3–21–13–1 11 6.5 O BUF
Oct 25, 2025 at TOR BUF 3–4 OT 1–11–11–1 7 6.5 O TOR
Oct 24, 2025 at BUF BUF 5–3 2–22–01–1 8 6.5 O BUF
Apr 15, 2025 at BUF BUF 0–4 0–00–10–3 4 6.5 U TOR
Dec 20, 2024 at BUF BUF 3–6 0–22–31–1 9 6 O TOR
Dec 15, 2024 at TOR BUF 3–5 2–11–30–1 8 6 O TOR
Mar 30, 2024 at BUF BUF 0–3 0–10–10–1 3 — TOR
Mar 6, 2024 at TOR BUF 1–2 OT 0–01–10–0 3 — TOR